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Sealed product reference

Booster box expected value (EV)

Compare booster box expected value (EV), median box outcomes (P50), 10th–90th percentile spreads, and Bayesian chase pull odds before you open or sell a sealed box.

Planning estimate · English · USD Browse individual card values
Expected box value (EV)
$179.49Secrets of Power Carbonite Display · 90% credible mean: $163.16–$198.85
EV to sealed box price
173.0%Sealed market: $103.75 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 98.2%
Median box (P50)
$160.20P10–P90 spread: $119.92–$262.08 (20,000 trials)
Chase share of EV
$38.45 (21.4%)Non-chase floor: $141.04 · P(any chase): 45.4%

Ranked booster boxes by EV to sealed box price (Collector value)

  1. Rank 01 Star Wars: Unlimited - Secrets of Power Carbonite Edition Booster Display Star Wars: Unlimited · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 867/887 variants priced 90% credible EV: $163.16–$198.85 Chase EV: $38.45 · Non-chase: $141.04 P(any chase): 45.4% · P(box ≥ cost): 98.2% Median $160.20 EV to price ratio: 173.0% $179.49 Sealed market: $103.75 · tcgcsv marketPrice P10 $119.92 · P25 $135.38 · P75 $205.64 · P90 $262.08
  2. Rank 02 Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible EV: $149.94–$210.78 Chase EV: $61.74 · Non-chase: $113.45 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.7% Median $132.62 EV to price ratio: 65.9% $175.19 Sealed market: $265.82 · tcgcsv marketPrice P10 $89.07 · P25 $106.82 · P75 $171.20 · P90 $282.84

Star Wars: Unlimited - Secrets of Power Carbonite Edition Booster Display · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Showcase Leader Secrets of Power · 0.40 expected copies per Carbonite display Chase tier 0.40 / box 14.9% $26.76 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Prestige Foil Secrets of Power · 3.91 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 3.91 / box 9.8% $17.65 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Hyperspace Rare Secrets of Power · 6.95 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 6.95 / box 9.3% $16.76 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Prestige Secrets of Power · 7.89 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 7.89 / box 9.0% $16.10 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Foil Rare Secrets of Power · 12.43 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 12.43 / box 7.7% $13.91 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Prestige Serialized Secrets of Power · 0.20 expected copies per Carbonite display Chase tier 18 unpriced in catalog ($0 floor) 0.20 / box 6.5% $11.70 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Hyperspace Foil Rare Secrets of Power · 2.57 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 2.57 / box 5.4% $9.74 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Hyperspace Legendary Secrets of Power · 2.67 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 2.67 / box 5.0% $8.93 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Hyperspace Common Secrets of Power · 33.00 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 33.00 / box 4.9% $8.84 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Hyperspace Foil Legendary Secrets of Power · 1.22 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 1.22 / box 4.0% $7.23 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Hyperspace Uncommon Secrets of Power · 15.89 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 15.89 / box 3.6% $6.51 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Foil Legendary Secrets of Power · 2.57 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 2.57 / box 3.6% $6.45 Expected tier contribution
  13. Tier 13 Hyperspace Foil Common Secrets of Power · 12.00 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 12.00 / box 3.2% $5.70 Expected tier contribution
  14. Tier 14 Hyperspace Foil Uncommon Secrets of Power · 7.70 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 7.70 / box 2.6% $4.67 Expected tier contribution
  15. Tier 15 Foil Common Secrets of Power · 42.00 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 2 unpriced in catalog ($0 floor) 42.00 / box 2.5% $4.54 Expected tier contribution
  16. Tier 16 Foil Uncommon Secrets of Power · 24.00 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 24.00 / box 2.5% $4.51 Expected tier contribution
  17. Tier 17 Hyperspace Special Secrets of Power · 1.49 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 1.49 / box 1.8% $3.31 Expected tier contribution
  18. Tier 18 Hyperspace Leader Secrets of Power · 11.60 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 11.60 / box 1.3% $2.31 Expected tier contribution
  19. Tier 19 Hyperspace Foil Special Secrets of Power · 0.51 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 0.51 / box 1.1% $2.01 Expected tier contribution
  20. Tier 20 Foil Special Secrets of Power · 3.00 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier 3.00 / box 1.0% $1.86 Expected tier contribution

Secrets of Power Carbonite Display · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Queen Amidala — Championing Her People Secrets of Power · #1127 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 215.0 boxes 0.0047 / box $398.84 $1.86 Expected EV contribution per box Collector single-card value: $398.84
  2. Rank 02 Major Partagaz — Healthcare Provider Secrets of Power · #1132 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 215.0 boxes 0.0047 / box $155.88 $0.73 Expected EV contribution per box Collector single-card value: $155.88
  3. Rank 03 Mina Bonteri — Stop This War Secrets of Power · #1126 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 215.0 boxes 0.0047 / box $154.74 $0.72 Expected EV contribution per box Collector single-card value: $154.74
  4. Rank 04 Grand Moff Tarkin — Taking Krennic's Achievement Secrets of Power · #1139 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 215.0 boxes 0.0047 / box $136.83 $0.64 Expected EV contribution per box Collector single-card value: $136.83
  5. Rank 05 Colonel Yularen — This is Why We Plan Secrets of Power · #1026 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 45.0 boxes 0.0222 / box $127.02 $2.82 Expected EV contribution per box Collector single-card value: $127.02
  6. Rank 06 Vice Admiral Rampart — On Schedule Secrets of Power · #1133 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 215.0 boxes 0.0047 / box $125.00 $0.58 Expected EV contribution per box Collector single-card value: $125.00
  7. Rank 07 General Grievous — Scuttling to Safety Secrets of Power · #1138 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 215.0 boxes 0.0047 / box $125.00 $0.58 Expected EV contribution per box Collector single-card value: $125.00
  8. Rank 08 Sabé — Queen's Shadow Secrets of Power · #1037 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 45.0 boxes 0.0222 / box $124.32 $2.76 Expected EV contribution per box Collector single-card value: $124.32
  9. Rank 09 Karis Nemik — Freedom is a Pure Idea Secrets of Power · #1148 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 215.0 boxes 0.0047 / box $119.00 $0.55 Expected EV contribution per box Collector single-card value: $119.00
  10. Rank 10 Cassian Andor — Climb! Secrets of Power · #1032 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 45.0 boxes 0.0222 / box $108.83 $2.42 Expected EV contribution per box Collector single-card value: $108.83
  11. Rank 11 Lando Calrissian — Trust Me Secrets of Power · #1141 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 215.0 boxes 0.0047 / box $105.57 $0.49 Expected EV contribution per box Collector single-card value: $105.57
  12. Rank 12 Garindan — Information Broker Secrets of Power · #1160 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 215.0 boxes 0.0047 / box $99.50 $0.46 Expected EV contribution per box Collector single-card value: $99.50

Secrets of Power Carbonite Display · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Showcase Leader Pack slot: Leader · ~1 in 30.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 1.809%–5.236% per pack 0.4000 expected copies per Carbonite display 1 : 30.0 packs 3.33% 0.40 / box Posterior mean per Carbonite display
  2. 02 Prestige Serialized Pack slot: Prestige · ~1 in 60.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.276%–3.932% per pack 0.2000 expected copies per Carbonite display 1 : 60.0 packs 1.67% 0.20 / box Posterior mean per Carbonite display

Secrets of Power Carbonite Display · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Showcase Leader Slot: Leader · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low EV: $166.15 · High EV: $206.16 $166.15–$206.16 ±$20.01 $40.01 swing Box EV range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Showcase Leader Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low EV: $166.11 · High EV: $192.87 $166.11–$192.87 ±$13.38 $26.76 swing Box EV range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Prestige Foil Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low EV: $170.67 · High EV: $188.32 $170.67–$188.32 ±$8.83 $17.65 swing Box EV range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Hyperspace Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low EV: $171.13 · High EV: $187.89 $171.13–$187.89 ±$8.38 $16.76 swing Box EV range for this factor
  5. 05 Pull rate: Prestige Serialized Slot: Prestige · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low EV: $173.93 · High EV: $190.61 $173.93–$190.61 ±$8.34 $16.68 swing Box EV range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Prestige Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low EV: $171.46 · High EV: $187.56 $171.46–$187.56 ±$8.05 $16.10 swing Box EV range for this factor
  7. 07 Tier price band: Foil Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low EV: $172.56 · High EV: $186.48 $172.56–$186.48 ±$6.96 $13.92 swing Box EV range for this factor
  8. 08 Tier price band: Prestige Serialized Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low EV: $173.64 · High EV: $185.34 $173.64–$185.34 ±$5.85 $11.70 swing Box EV range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Secrets of Power Carbonite Display
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • 20 modeled variants have no FoilFox price and count as zero, so the mean is a lower bound.
  • No Secrets of Power-specific opening sample exists. Rarity mixes inside each treatment come from Jump to Lightspeed Carbonite samples (stand-in, wide priors).
  • Leaders are identified by the set's leader numbering: Hyperspace leaders #265-282 and Showcase leaders #1021-1038. Non-leader Hyperspace pools start at #283.
  • The serialized rate is a community estimate with a deliberately weak prior. Serialized variants without a FoilFox price stay unpriced, so they count as zero and the mean is a lower bound; they are never priced from ordinary Prestige.
  • TCGplayer lists 21 Gold and 21 Rose Gold Secrets of Power products that have no FoilFox catalog rows. Whether they are Carbonite content is unverified, so they are not modeled.
  • FFG's later pack changes (no black-border foils from A Lawless Time onward) do not apply to Secrets of Power.
  • Every card in a pool is equally likely; draws are independent; display guarantees are not modeled.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Browse every card in Secrets of Power → · View Secrets of Power card values →

How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean EV alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs 20,000 Monte Carlo box trials alongside 400 parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean EV and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase EV split, and probability of clearing the sealed box price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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