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Sealed product reference

Ursula's Return Booster Box expected value (EV)

Compare booster box expected value (EV), median box outcomes (P50), 10th–90th percentile spreads, and Bayesian chase pull odds before you open or sell a sealed box.

Planning estimate · 40 modeled boxes · English · USD Browse individual card values
Ariel - Sonic Warrior Minnie Mouse - Musketeer Champion Cinderella - Melody Weaver

Top chase: Minnie Mouse - Musketeer Champion ($122.79) · Ursula's Return Booster Box

Ursula's Return Booster BoxClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$60.19Ursula's Return Booster Box · 90% credible mean: $49.62–$73.71
Expected value to box price
48.0%Sealed market: $125.46 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 9.1%
Median box (P50)
$44.37P10–P90 spread: $34.37–$120.15 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$17.48 (29.0%)Non-chase floor: $42.71 · P(any chase): 23.6%
Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. box price
Chase-driven box (48.0% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $44.37; clearing the $125.46 box cost (9.1% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($125.46) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ Browse set cards →
80% of simulated boxes land between $34.37 (unlucky P10) and $120.15 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $34.37–$120.15 Typical / Median (P50): $44.37 Expected value (Mean): $60.19 Box price: $125.46

Top chase cards in Ursula's Return Booster Box

Click any card for price history & versions · Collector market prices
  1. Ariel - Sonic Warrior Ariel - Sonic Warrior Holofoil · #220 $153.20 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.13/box
  2. Minnie Mouse - Musketeer Champion Minnie Mouse - Musketeer Champion Holofoil · #206 $122.79 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.71/box
  3. Cinderella - Melody Weaver Cinderella - Melody Weaver Holofoil · #205 $118.91 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.65/box
  4. Jasmine - Desert Warrior Jasmine - Desert Warrior Holofoil · #212 $106.31 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.48/box
  5. Look at This Family Look at This Family Holofoil · #207 $88.52 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.23/box
  6. Anna - True-Hearted Anna - True-Hearted Holofoil · #217 $80.91 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.12/box
  7. Diablo - Devoted Herald Diablo - Devoted Herald Holofoil · #211 $79.11 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.10/box
  8. Piglet - Sturdy Swordsman Piglet - Sturdy Swordsman Holofoil · #221 $70.83 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.98/box
  9. Goofy - Super Goof Goofy - Super Goof Holofoil · #214 $64.84 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.90/box
  10. Second Star to the Right Second Star to the Right Holofoil · #210 $59.40 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.83/box

Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Ursula's Return · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $69.92Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 29.0% $17.48 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Common Ursula's Return · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.06Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 13.5% $8.12 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Rare Ursula's Return · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.21Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 11.4% $6.89 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Legendary Ursula's Return · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.68Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 11.1% $6.68 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Uncommon Ursula's Return · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.07Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 8.9% $5.36 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Cold Foil Legendary Ursula's Return · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $5.47Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 6.8% $4.10 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Super Rare Ursula's Return · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.28Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 5.3% $3.16 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Cold Foil Rare Ursula's Return · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.83Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 4.6% $2.77 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Cold Foil Common Ursula's Return · 12.61 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.19Avg / pulled copy 12.61Copies / box 4.0% $2.38 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Uncommon Ursula's Return · 5.83 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.29Avg / pulled copy 5.83Copies / box 2.8% $1.70 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Cold Foil Super Rare Ursula's Return · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.25Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 2.6% $1.54 Expected tier contribution

Ursula's Return Booster Box · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Ariel - Sonic Warrior Ursula's Return · #220 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $153.20 $2.13 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $153.20
  2. Rank 02 Minnie Mouse - Musketeer Champion Ursula's Return · #206 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $122.79 $1.71 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $122.79
  3. Rank 03 Cinderella - Melody Weaver Ursula's Return · #205 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $118.91 $1.65 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $118.91
  4. Rank 04 Jasmine - Desert Warrior Ursula's Return · #212 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $106.31 $1.48 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $106.31
  5. Rank 05 Look at This Family Ursula's Return · #207 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $88.52 $1.23 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $88.52
  6. Rank 06 Anna - True-Hearted Ursula's Return · #217 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $80.91 $1.12 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $80.91
  7. Rank 07 Diablo - Devoted Herald Ursula's Return · #211 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $79.11 $1.10 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $79.11
  8. Rank 08 Piglet - Sturdy Swordsman Ursula's Return · #221 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $70.83 $0.98 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $70.83
  9. Rank 09 Goofy - Super Goof Ursula's Return · #214 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $64.84 $0.90 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $64.84
  10. Rank 10 Second Star to the Right Ursula's Return · #210 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $59.40 $0.83 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $59.40
Advanced statistical breakdown for Ursula's Return Booster Box (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Ursula's Return Booster Box · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.406%–1.921% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.92%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Ursula's Return Booster Box · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $51.51 · High expected value: $77.54 $51.51Low scenario $77.54High scenario ±$13.02 $26.03 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $51.45 · High expected value: $68.93 $51.45Low scenario $68.93High scenario ±$8.74 $17.48 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Common Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $56.41 · High expected value: $64.53 $56.41Low scenario $64.53High scenario ±$4.06 $8.12 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $56.83 · High expected value: $63.72 $56.83Low scenario $63.72High scenario ±$3.45 $6.89 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $56.86 · High expected value: $63.54 $56.86Low scenario $63.54High scenario ±$3.34 $6.68 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Uncommon Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $57.70 · High expected value: $63.06 $57.70Low scenario $63.06High scenario ±$2.68 $5.36 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Ursula's Return Booster Box
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Ursula's Return Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Ursula's Return packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Ursula's Return → · View Ursula's Return card values →

Ranked booster boxes by expected value to box price (Collector value)

# Art Booster box Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $139.53–$237.78 Chase expected value: $78.07 · Non-chase: $101.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.55 P25 $91.45 · P75 $177.24 Expected value to price ratio: 75.5% $179.68 P10 $71.81 · P90 $300.17
  2. Rank 02 Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $85.54–$181.21 Chase expected value: $78.35 · Non-chase: $51.80 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 12.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $58.47 P25 $51.61 · P75 $77.06 Expected value to price ratio: 69.0% $130.15 P10 $47.24 · P90 $229.87
  3. Rank 03 Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $149.94–$210.78 Chase expected value: $61.74 · Non-chase: $113.45 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.7% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $132.62 P25 $106.82 · P75 $171.20 Expected value to price ratio: 65.9% $175.19 P10 $89.07 · P90 $282.84
  4. Rank 04 Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $62.89–$123.58 Chase expected value: $42.49 · Non-chase: $45.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 15.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $46.83 P25 $41.45 · P75 $67.63 Expected value to price ratio: 58.2% $88.27 P10 $38.30 · P90 $213.85
  5. Rank 05 Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $57.63–$99.65 Chase expected value: $31.40 · Non-chase: $45.48 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $46.48 P25 $40.73 · P75 $72.66 Expected value to price ratio: 57.9% $76.88 P10 $37.67 · P90 $157.32
  6. Rank 06 Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $81.42–$225.88 Chase expected value: $72.20 · Non-chase: $58.08 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.3% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $66.07 P25 $57.34 · P75 $88.54 Expected value to price ratio: 54.9% $130.28 P10 $50.50 · P90 $162.18
  7. Rank 07 Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $48.18–$67.85 Chase expected value: $16.21 · Non-chase: $41.10 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.9% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $42.80 P25 $37.31 · P75 $57.22 Expected value to price ratio: 48.5% $57.31 P10 $34.30 · P90 $104.66
  8. Rank 08 Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.62–$73.71 Chase expected value: $17.48 · Non-chase: $42.71 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 9.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $44.37 P25 $37.87 · P75 $64.39 Expected value to price ratio: 48.0% $60.19 P10 $34.37 · P90 $120.15
  9. Rank 09 Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $63.80–$95.39 Chase expected value: $21.35 · Non-chase: $55.01 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.4% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $57.61 P25 $48.89 · P75 $81.68 Expected value to price ratio: 44.5% $76.36 P10 $43.80 · P90 $123.45
  10. Rank 10 Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.05–$75.88 Chase expected value: $21.15 · Non-chase: $39.28 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.1% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $40.62 P25 $36.84 · P75 $51.66 Expected value to price ratio: 42.8% $60.43 P10 $34.59 · P90 $115.95
  11. Rank 11 Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $43.33–$67.37 Chase expected value: $16.94 · Non-chase: $36.48 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.5% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.48 P25 $33.40 · P75 $58.09 Expected value to price ratio: 42.3% $53.42 P10 $31.43 · P90 $106.35
  12. Rank 12 Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $217.28–$436.32 Chase expected value: $187.49 · Non-chase: $129.07 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $170.82 P25 $128.30 · P75 $272.45 Expected value to price ratio: 38.4% $316.55 P10 $101.31 · P90 $611.98
  13. Rank 13 Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $135.95–$235.51 Chase expected value: $64.69 · Non-chase: $110.79 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.4% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $119.81 P25 $86.63 · P75 $204.48 Expected value to price ratio: 35.8% $175.48 P10 $68.68 · P90 $334.33
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the sealed box price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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