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Pokémon · Chaos Rising · 36 packs per booster box

Chaos Rising Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution - Chaos Rising Booster Box (36 packs) vs. its $185.15 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 36 packs · 198/198 printings priced · USD Browse Chaos Rising card values
Mega Greninja ex Mega Greninja ex Cinccino ex

Top chase in Chaos Rising: Mega Greninja ex ($129.04)

Chaos RisingClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$119.91Chaos Rising · 90% credible mean: $94.77–$152.99
Expected value to box price
64.8%Reflective market: $185.15 (2026-10-14) · P(box ≥ cost): 26.4%
Median box (P50)
$81.32P10–P90 spread: $63.68–$214.33 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$63.81 (53.2%)Non-chase floor: $56.10 · P(any chase): 99.7%
Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution - Chaos Rising Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (64.8% of reflective market price)Typical (median) box returns $81.32; clearing the $185.15 reflective market price (26.4% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($185.15) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $63.68 (unlucky P10) and $214.33 (lucky P90) 36 packs per booster box · 198/198 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $63.68–$214.33 Typical / Median (P50): $81.32 Expected value (Mean): $119.91 Reflective market price: $185.15

Top chase cards in Chaos Rising

Click any card for price history & versions · Collector market prices
  1. Mega Greninja ex Mega Greninja ex en · Holo · #122 $126.50 ~1 in 3.9 boxes · EV $32.78/box
  2. Mega Greninja ex Mega Greninja ex en · Holo · #116 $129.04 ~1 in 14.4 boxes · EV $8.98/box
  3. Cinccino ex Cinccino ex en · Holo · #119 $40.97 ~1 in 14.4 boxes · EV $2.85/box
  4. Mega Dragalge ex Mega Dragalge ex en · Holo · #118 $23.86 ~1 in 14.4 boxes · EV $1.66/box
  5. Mega Floette ex Mega Floette ex en · Holo · #117 $23.20 ~1 in 14.4 boxes · EV $1.62/box
  6. AZ's Tranquility AZ's Tranquility en · Holo · #120 $20.10 ~1 in 14.4 boxes · EV $1.40/box
  7. Froakie Froakie en · Holo · #088 $5.28 ~1 in 4.0 boxes · EV $1.33/box
  8. Xerneas Xerneas en · Holo · #091 $4.97 ~1 in 4.0 boxes · EV $1.25/box
  9. Mega Greninja ex Mega Greninja ex en · Holo · #100 $8.42 ~1 in 7.5 boxes · EV $1.12/box
  10. Roxie's Performance Roxie's Performance en · Holo · #121 $15.49 ~1 in 14.4 boxes · EV $1.08/box

Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution - Chaos Rising Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Hyper Rare Chaos Rising · 0.26 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $126.47Avg / pulled copy 0.26Copies / box 27.3% $32.78 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Special Illustration Rare Chaos Rising · 0.42 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $42.10Avg / pulled copy 0.42Copies / box 14.7% $17.58 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Common Chaos Rising · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.12Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 14.4% $17.32 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Uncommon Chaos Rising · 108.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.13Avg / pulled copy 108.00Copies / box 11.5% $13.83 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Illustration Rare Chaos Rising · 2.77 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $2.91Avg / pulled copy 2.77Copies / box 6.7% $8.08 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Reverse Holo Common Chaos Rising · 34.28 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.24Avg / pulled copy 34.28Copies / box 6.7% $8.08 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Reverse Holo Uncommon Chaos Rising · 23.99 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.25Avg / pulled copy 23.99Copies / box 5.0% $6.03 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Holo Rare Chaos Rising · 28.44 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.19Avg / pulled copy 28.44Copies / box 4.5% $5.36 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Ultra Rare Chaos Rising · 2.41 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $2.22Avg / pulled copy 2.41Copies / box 4.5% $5.36 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Double Rare Chaos Rising · 5.15 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.57Avg / pulled copy 5.15Copies / box 2.5% $2.94 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Reverse Holo Rare Chaos Rising · 10.28 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.25Avg / pulled copy 10.28Copies / box 2.1% $2.54 Expected tier contribution

Chaos Rising · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Mega Greninja ex Chaos Rising · #122 en · Holo Hyper Rare · ~1 in 3.9 boxes 1 : 3.9Box odds 0.2592Copies / box $126.50 $32.78 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $126.50
  2. Rank 02 Mega Greninja ex Chaos Rising · #116 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 14.4 boxes 1 : 14.4Box odds 0.0696Copies / box $129.04 $8.98 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $129.04
  3. Rank 03 Cinccino ex Chaos Rising · #119 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 14.4 boxes 1 : 14.4Box odds 0.0696Copies / box $40.97 $2.85 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $40.97
  4. Rank 04 Mega Dragalge ex Chaos Rising · #118 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 14.4 boxes 1 : 14.4Box odds 0.0696Copies / box $23.86 $1.66 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $23.86
  5. Rank 05 Mega Floette ex Chaos Rising · #117 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 14.4 boxes 1 : 14.4Box odds 0.0696Copies / box $23.20 $1.62 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $23.20
  6. Rank 06 AZ's Tranquility Chaos Rising · #120 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 14.4 boxes 1 : 14.4Box odds 0.0696Copies / box $20.10 $1.40 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $20.10
  7. Rank 07 Froakie Chaos Rising · #088 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 4.0 boxes 1 : 4.0Box odds 0.2520Copies / box $5.28 $1.33 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $5.28
  8. Rank 08 Xerneas Chaos Rising · #091 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 4.0 boxes 1 : 4.0Box odds 0.2520Copies / box $4.97 $1.25 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $4.97
  9. Rank 09 Mega Greninja ex Chaos Rising · #100 en · Holo Ultra Rare · ~1 in 7.5 boxes 1 : 7.5Box odds 0.1340Copies / box $8.42 $1.12 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $8.42
  10. Rank 10 Roxie's Performance Chaos Rising · #121 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 14.4 boxes 1 : 14.4Box odds 0.0696Copies / box $15.49 $1.08 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $15.49
Advanced statistical breakdown for Chaos Rising (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Chaos Rising · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Illustration Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 13.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 6.210%–9.390% per pack 2.7720 expected copies per booster box 6.21%–9.39%90% credible / pack 1 : 13.0Packs 7.70% 2.77 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Special Illustration Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 86.2 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.612%–1.853% per pack 0.4176 expected copies per booster box 0.61%–1.85%90% credible / pack 1 : 86.2Packs 1.16% 0.42 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Hyper Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 138.9 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.314%–1.268% per pack 0.2592 expected copies per booster box 0.31%–1.27%90% credible / pack 1 : 138.9Packs 0.72% 0.26 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  4. 04 Ultra Rare Pack slot: Holo-plus · ~1 in 14.9 packs 90% Beta posterior: 5.327%–8.175% per pack 2.4120 expected copies per booster box 5.33%–8.18%90% credible / pack 1 : 14.9Packs 6.70% 2.41 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Chaos Rising · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Hyper Rare Slot: Reverse Slot 2 · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $104.43 · High expected value: $154.65 $104.43Low scenario $154.65High scenario ±$25.11 $50.22 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Hyper Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $104.31 · High expected value: $138.04 $104.31Low scenario $138.04High scenario ±$16.87 $33.73 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Pull rate: Special Illustration Rare Slot: Reverse Slot 2 · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $112.52 · High expected value: $138.48 $112.52Low scenario $138.48High scenario ±$12.98 $25.96 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Special Illustration Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $112.23 · High expected value: $130.12 $112.23Low scenario $130.12High scenario ±$8.95 $17.89 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Common Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $112.84 · High expected value: $130.15 $112.84Low scenario $130.15High scenario ±$8.66 $17.31 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Uncommon Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $114.61 · High expected value: $128.44 $114.61Low scenario $128.44High scenario ±$6.92 $13.83 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Chaos Rising
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • The Pokémon Company International does not publish official pull rates; slot weights use TCGplayer multi-thousand-pack empirical opening benchmarks.
  • Card prices resolve from FoilFox printing-level TCGdex normal/holofoil/reverse observations when variant-level observations are absent.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Chaos Rising Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Chaos Rising packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Chaos Rising → · View Chaos Rising card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Collector value)

# Set artwork Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Chaos Rising Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution - Chaos Rising Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 198/198 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.77–$152.99 Chase expected value: $63.81 · Non-chase: $56.10 P(any chase): 99.7% · P(box ≥ cost): 26.4% $185.15 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $81.32 P25 $68.42 · P75 $191.08 Expected value to price ratio: 64.8% $119.91 P10 $63.68 · P90 $214.33
  2. Rank 02 Temporal Forces Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Temporal Forces Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 360/360 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $179.36–$214.12 Chase expected value: $112.71 · Non-chase: $83.51 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.4% $306.92 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $187.68 P25 $150.94 · P75 $232.80 Expected value to price ratio: 63.9% $196.22 P10 $123.94 · P90 $277.80
  3. Rank 03 Journey Together Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Journey Together Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 333/333 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $104.05–$123.52 Chase expected value: $41.27 · Non-chase: $72.29 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.3% $192.52 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $104.57 P25 $91.32 · P75 $125.24 Expected value to price ratio: 59.0% $113.57 P10 $83.36 · P90 $154.23
  4. Rank 04 Mega Evolution Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 310/310 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $137.72–$232.54 Chase expected value: $109.92 · Non-chase: $65.78 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 15.0% $303.71 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $115.87 P25 $90.00 · P75 $258.66 Expected value to price ratio: 57.9% $175.70 P10 $78.92 · P90 $326.57
  5. Rank 05 Stellar Crown Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Stellar Crown Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 300/300 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $138.14–$178.89 Chase expected value: $80.78 · Non-chase: $76.08 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.7% $299.66 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $132.62 P25 $105.64 · P75 $197.18 Expected value to price ratio: 52.3% $156.87 P10 $92.09 · P90 $245.41
  6. Rank 06 Paradox Rift Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paradox Rift Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $122.59–$147.88 Chase expected value: $73.82 · Non-chase: $61.69 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.8% $283.82 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $125.78 P25 $99.39 · P75 $160.65 Expected value to price ratio: 47.7% $135.50 P10 $83.12 · P90 $201.00
  7. Rank 07 Twilight Masquerade Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Twilight Masquerade Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 374/374 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $137.11–$172.81 Chase expected value: $84.95 · Non-chase: $69.31 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.1% $339.88 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $132.36 P25 $107.58 · P75 $170.82 Expected value to price ratio: 45.4% $154.26 P10 $93.34 · P90 $232.75
  8. Rank 08 Scarlet & Violet Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet Base Set Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 451/451 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $114.47–$137.45 Chase expected value: $63.00 · Non-chase: $62.85 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $292.65 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $119.56 P25 $97.38 · P75 $146.39 Expected value to price ratio: 43.0% $125.85 P10 $82.89 · P90 $177.78
  9. Rank 09 Surging Sparks Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Surging Sparks Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 417/417 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.30–$138.33 Chase expected value: $64.76 · Non-chase: $58.53 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.4% $295.27 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $100.48 P25 $83.42 · P75 $126.27 Expected value to price ratio: 41.8% $123.29 P10 $73.03 · P90 $195.75
  10. Rank 10 Paldea Evolved Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paldea Evolved Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 455/455 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $155.81–$211.53 Chase expected value: $119.39 · Non-chase: $63.18 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.8% $449.49 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $149.13 P25 $113.85 · P75 $201.61 Expected value to price ratio: 40.6% $182.57 P10 $92.30 · P90 $290.31
  11. Rank 11 Destined Rivals Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Destined Rivals Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 409/409 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $132.56–$182.69 Chase expected value: $76.54 · Non-chase: $76.37 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $403.55 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $123.79 P25 $102.75 · P75 $161.71 Expected value to price ratio: 37.9% $152.91 P10 $91.37 · P90 $245.65
  12. Rank 12 Obsidian Flames Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Obsidian Flames Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 408/408 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $123.97–$145.44 Chase expected value: $57.08 · Non-chase: $75.68 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $362.77 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $125.70 P25 $105.00 · P75 $151.81 Expected value to price ratio: 36.6% $132.76 P10 $91.95 · P90 $186.78
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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