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Sealed product reference

Attack of the Vine! Booster Box expected value (EV)

Compare booster box expected value (EV), median box outcomes (P50), 10th–90th percentile spreads, and Bayesian chase pull odds before you open or sell a sealed box.

Planning estimate · 40 modeled boxes · English · USD Browse individual card values
Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends Winnie the Pooh & Piglet - Hunny Mages

Top chase: Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends ($1,629.34) · Attack of the Vine! Booster Box

Attack of the Vine! Booster BoxClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$130.15Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 90% credible mean: $85.54–$181.21
Expected value to box price
69.0%Sealed market: $188.70 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 12.2%
Median box (P50)
$58.47P10–P90 spread: $47.24–$229.87 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$78.35 (60.2%)Non-chase floor: $51.80 · P(any chase): 84.1%
Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. box price
Chase-driven box (69.0% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $58.47; clearing the $188.70 box cost (12.2% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($188.70) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ Browse set cards →
80% of simulated boxes land between $47.24 (unlucky P10) and $229.87 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $47.24–$229.87 Typical / Median (P50): $58.47 Expected value (Mean): $130.15 Box price: $188.70

Top chase cards in Attack of the Vine! Booster Box

Click any card for price history & versions · Collector market prices
  1. Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Holofoil · #245 $1,953.35 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $15.63/box
  2. Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends Holofoil · #244 $1,629.34 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $13.03/box
  3. Winnie the Pooh & Piglet - Hunny Mages Winnie the Pooh & Piglet - Hunny Mages Holofoil · #234 $764.69 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $10.62/box
  4. Mickey Mouse & Minnie Mouse - Adventuring Duo Mickey Mouse & Minnie Mouse - Adventuring Duo Holofoil · #238 $436.70 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $6.07/box
  5. Woody & Buzz Lightyear - Best Buddies Woody & Buzz Lightyear - Best Buddies Holofoil · #228 $306.71 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $4.26/box
  6. Sulley & Boo - Scare Buddies Sulley & Boo - Scare Buddies Holofoil · #229 $212.33 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.95/box
  7. Peter Pan & Tinker Bell - Fast Friends Peter Pan & Tinker Bell - Fast Friends Holofoil · #233 $179.05 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.49/box
  8. Aladdin & Genie - Mischievous Pals Aladdin & Genie - Mischievous Pals Holofoil · #232 $177.68 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.47/box
  9. Rapunzel & Flynn Rider - Unlikely Pair Rapunzel & Flynn Rider - Unlikely Pair Holofoil · #239 $173.95 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.42/box
  10. Tod & Copper - Best of Friends Tod & Copper - Best of Friends Holofoil · #236 $127.30 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.77/box

Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Attack of the Vine! · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $183.12Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 35.2% $45.78 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Iconic Attack of the Vine! · 0.0160 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $1,791.25Avg / pulled copy 0.016Copies / box 22.0% $28.66 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Common Attack of the Vine! · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.06Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 6.7% $8.76 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Rare Attack of the Vine! · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.26Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 6.5% $8.51 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Uncommon Attack of the Vine! · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.10Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 5.4% $6.97 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Super Rare Attack of the Vine! · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.58Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 5.1% $6.59 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Legendary Attack of the Vine! · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.29Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 3.9% $5.14 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Cold Foil Uncommon Attack of the Vine! · 5.35 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.78Avg / pulled copy 5.35Copies / box 3.2% $4.18 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Epic Attack of the Vine! · 1.50 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $2.61Avg / pulled copy 1.50Copies / box 3.0% $3.91 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Legendary Attack of the Vine! · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $4.36Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 2.5% $3.27 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Cold Foil Common Attack of the Vine! · 11.57 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.26Avg / pulled copy 11.57Copies / box 2.3% $3.02 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Cold Foil Super Rare Attack of the Vine! · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $2.24Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 2.1% $2.75 Expected tier contribution
  13. Tier 13 Cold Foil Rare Attack of the Vine! · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.78Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 2.0% $2.61 Expected tier contribution

Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Attack of the Vine! · #245 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $1,953.35 $15.63 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $1,953.35
  2. Rank 02 Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends Attack of the Vine! · #244 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $1,629.34 $13.03 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $1,629.34
  3. Rank 03 Winnie the Pooh & Piglet - Hunny Mages Attack of the Vine! · #234 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $764.69 $10.62 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $764.69
  4. Rank 04 Mickey Mouse & Minnie Mouse - Adventuring Duo Attack of the Vine! · #238 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $436.70 $6.07 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $436.70
  5. Rank 05 Woody & Buzz Lightyear - Best Buddies Attack of the Vine! · #228 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $306.71 $4.26 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $306.71
  6. Rank 06 Sulley & Boo - Scare Buddies Attack of the Vine! · #229 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $212.33 $2.95 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $212.33
  7. Rank 07 Peter Pan & Tinker Bell - Fast Friends Attack of the Vine! · #233 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $179.05 $2.49 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $179.05
  8. Rank 08 Aladdin & Genie - Mischievous Pals Attack of the Vine! · #232 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $177.68 $2.47 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $177.68
  9. Rank 09 Rapunzel & Flynn Rider - Unlikely Pair Attack of the Vine! · #239 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $173.95 $2.42 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $173.95
  10. Rank 10 Tod & Copper - Best of Friends Attack of the Vine! · #236 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $127.30 $1.77 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $127.30
Advanced statistical breakdown for Attack of the Vine! Booster Box (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Epic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 16.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 3.674%–9.388% per pack 1.5000 expected copies per booster box 3.67%–9.39%90% credible / pack 1 : 16.0Packs 6.25% 1.50 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.414%–1.909% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.91%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Iconic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 1500.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.004%–0.196% per pack 0.0160 expected copies per booster box 0.00%–0.20%90% credible / pack 1 : 1500.0Packs 0.07% 0.02 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $107.51 · High expected value: $175.43 $107.51Low scenario $175.43High scenario ±$33.96 $67.92 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $107.26 · High expected value: $153.04 $107.26Low scenario $153.04High scenario ±$22.89 $45.78 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Pull rate: Iconic Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $115.84 · High expected value: $158.77 $115.84Low scenario $158.77High scenario ±$21.47 $42.93 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Iconic Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $115.82 · High expected value: $144.48 $115.82Low scenario $144.48High scenario ±$14.33 $28.66 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Common Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $126.13 · High expected value: $134.89 $126.13Low scenario $134.89High scenario ±$4.38 $8.76 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $125.98 · High expected value: $134.49 $125.98Low scenario $134.49High scenario ±$4.26 $8.51 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Attack of the Vine! Booster Box
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Attack of the Vine! Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Attack of the Vine! packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Attack of the Vine! → · View Attack of the Vine! card values →

Ranked booster boxes by expected value to box price (Collector value)

# Art Booster box Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $139.53–$237.78 Chase expected value: $78.07 · Non-chase: $101.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.55 P25 $91.45 · P75 $177.24 Expected value to price ratio: 75.5% $179.68 P10 $71.81 · P90 $300.17
  2. Rank 02 Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $85.54–$181.21 Chase expected value: $78.35 · Non-chase: $51.80 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 12.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $58.47 P25 $51.61 · P75 $77.06 Expected value to price ratio: 69.0% $130.15 P10 $47.24 · P90 $229.87
  3. Rank 03 Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $149.94–$210.78 Chase expected value: $61.74 · Non-chase: $113.45 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.7% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $132.62 P25 $106.82 · P75 $171.20 Expected value to price ratio: 65.9% $175.19 P10 $89.07 · P90 $282.84
  4. Rank 04 Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $62.89–$123.58 Chase expected value: $42.49 · Non-chase: $45.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 15.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $46.83 P25 $41.45 · P75 $67.63 Expected value to price ratio: 58.2% $88.27 P10 $38.30 · P90 $213.85
  5. Rank 05 Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $57.63–$99.65 Chase expected value: $31.40 · Non-chase: $45.48 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $46.48 P25 $40.73 · P75 $72.66 Expected value to price ratio: 57.9% $76.88 P10 $37.67 · P90 $157.32
  6. Rank 06 Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $81.42–$225.88 Chase expected value: $72.20 · Non-chase: $58.08 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.3% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $66.07 P25 $57.34 · P75 $88.54 Expected value to price ratio: 54.9% $130.28 P10 $50.50 · P90 $162.18
  7. Rank 07 Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $48.18–$67.85 Chase expected value: $16.21 · Non-chase: $41.10 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.9% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $42.80 P25 $37.31 · P75 $57.22 Expected value to price ratio: 48.5% $57.31 P10 $34.30 · P90 $104.66
  8. Rank 08 Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.62–$73.71 Chase expected value: $17.48 · Non-chase: $42.71 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 9.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $44.37 P25 $37.87 · P75 $64.39 Expected value to price ratio: 48.0% $60.19 P10 $34.37 · P90 $120.15
  9. Rank 09 Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $63.80–$95.39 Chase expected value: $21.35 · Non-chase: $55.01 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.4% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $57.61 P25 $48.89 · P75 $81.68 Expected value to price ratio: 44.5% $76.36 P10 $43.80 · P90 $123.45
  10. Rank 10 Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.05–$75.88 Chase expected value: $21.15 · Non-chase: $39.28 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.1% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $40.62 P25 $36.84 · P75 $51.66 Expected value to price ratio: 42.8% $60.43 P10 $34.59 · P90 $115.95
  11. Rank 11 Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $43.33–$67.37 Chase expected value: $16.94 · Non-chase: $36.48 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.5% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.48 P25 $33.40 · P75 $58.09 Expected value to price ratio: 42.3% $53.42 P10 $31.43 · P90 $106.35
  12. Rank 12 Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $217.28–$436.32 Chase expected value: $187.49 · Non-chase: $129.07 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $170.82 P25 $128.30 · P75 $272.45 Expected value to price ratio: 38.4% $316.55 P10 $101.31 · P90 $611.98
  13. Rank 13 Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $135.95–$235.51 Chase expected value: $64.69 · Non-chase: $110.79 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.4% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $119.81 P25 $86.63 · P75 $204.48 Expected value to price ratio: 35.8% $175.48 P10 $68.68 · P90 $334.33
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the sealed box price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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