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Sealed product reference

Fabled Booster Box expected value (EV)

Compare booster box expected value (EV), median box outcomes (P50), 10th–90th percentile spreads, and Bayesian chase pull odds before you open or sell a sealed box.

Planning estimate · 40 modeled boxes · English · USD Browse individual card values
Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard

Top chase: Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess ($3,083.33) · Fabled Booster Box

Fabled Booster BoxClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$316.55Fabled Booster Box · 90% credible mean: $217.28–$436.32
Expected value to box price
38.4%Sealed market: $823.83 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 6.0%
Median box (P50)
$170.82P10–P90 spread: $101.31–$611.98 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$187.49 (59.2%)Non-chase floor: $129.07 · P(any chase): 84.1%
Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. box price
Chase-driven box (38.4% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $170.82; clearing the $823.83 box cost (6.0% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($823.83) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ Browse set cards →
80% of simulated boxes land between $101.31 (unlucky P10) and $611.98 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $101.31–$611.98 Typical / Median (P50): $170.82 Expected value (Mean): $316.55 Box price: $823.83

Top chase cards in Fabled Booster Box

Click any card for price history & versions · Collector market prices
  1. Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Holofoil · #242 $3,875.00 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $31.00/box
  2. Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess Holofoil · #241 $3,083.33 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $24.67/box
  3. Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard Holofoil · #227 $1,410.97 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $19.60/box
  4. Ariel - Adventurous Collector Ariel - Adventurous Collector Holofoil · #232 $772.45 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $10.73/box
  5. Mickey Mouse - Steamboat Pilot Mickey Mouse - Steamboat Pilot Holofoil · #231 $701.71 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $9.75/box
  6. Circle of Life Circle of Life Holofoil · #225 $576.11 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $8.00/box
  7. I2I I2I Holofoil · #234 $571.99 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $7.94/box
  8. Dumbo - Ninth Wonder of the Universe Dumbo - Ninth Wonder of the Universe Holofoil · #228 $533.93 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $7.42/box
  9. Scar - Finally King Scar - Finally King Holofoil · #239 $364.75 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $5.07/box
  10. Belle - Accomplished Mystic Belle - Accomplished Mystic Holofoil · #226 $351.23 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $4.88/box

Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Fabled · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $423.92Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 33.5% $105.98 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Iconic Fabled · 0.0160 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $3,479.38Avg / pulled copy 0.016Copies / box 17.6% $55.67 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Legendary Fabled · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $12.23Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 15.4% $48.66 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Epic Fabled · 1.50 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $17.22Avg / pulled copy 1.50Copies / box 8.2% $25.83 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Cold Foil Legendary Fabled · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $23.68Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 5.6% $17.76 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Rare Fabled · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.44Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 4.6% $14.52 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Uncommon Fabled · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.16Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 3.7% $11.81 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Common Fabled · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.08Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 3.6% $11.46 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Super Rare Fabled · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.89Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 3.2% $10.11 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Rare Fabled · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.32Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 1.4% $4.40 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Cold Foil Super Rare Fabled · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $3.38Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 1.3% $4.15 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Cold Foil Uncommon Fabled · 5.35 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.65Avg / pulled copy 5.35Copies / box 1.1% $3.49 Expected tier contribution
  13. Tier 13 Cold Foil Common Fabled · 11.57 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.23Avg / pulled copy 11.57Copies / box 0.9% $2.71 Expected tier contribution

Fabled Booster Box · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Fabled · #242 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $3,875.00 $31.00 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $3,875.00
  2. Rank 02 Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess Fabled · #241 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $3,083.33 $24.67 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $3,083.33
  3. Rank 03 Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard Fabled · #227 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $1,410.97 $19.60 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $1,410.97
  4. Rank 04 Ariel - Adventurous Collector Fabled · #232 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $772.45 $10.73 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $772.45
  5. Rank 05 Mickey Mouse - Steamboat Pilot Fabled · #231 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $701.71 $9.75 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $701.71
  6. Rank 06 Circle of Life Fabled · #225 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $576.11 $8.00 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $576.11
  7. Rank 07 I2I Fabled · #234 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $571.99 $7.94 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $571.99
  8. Rank 08 Dumbo - Ninth Wonder of the Universe Fabled · #228 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $533.93 $7.42 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $533.93
  9. Rank 09 Scar - Finally King Fabled · #239 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $364.75 $5.07 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $364.75
  10. Rank 10 Belle - Accomplished Mystic Fabled · #226 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $351.23 $4.88 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $351.23
Advanced statistical breakdown for Fabled Booster Box (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Fabled Booster Box · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Epic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 16.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 3.674%–9.388% per pack 1.5000 expected copies per booster box 3.67%–9.39%90% credible / pack 1 : 16.0Packs 6.25% 1.50 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.414%–1.909% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.91%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Iconic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 1500.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.004%–0.196% per pack 0.0160 expected copies per booster box 0.00%–0.20%90% credible / pack 1 : 1500.0Packs 0.07% 0.02 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Fabled Booster Box · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $264.16 · High expected value: $421.34 $264.16Low scenario $421.34High scenario ±$78.59 $157.18 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $263.56 · High expected value: $369.55 $263.56Low scenario $369.55High scenario ±$53.00 $105.99 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Pull rate: Iconic Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $288.78 · High expected value: $372.11 $288.78Low scenario $372.11High scenario ±$41.67 $83.33 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Iconic Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $288.72 · High expected value: $344.39 $288.72Low scenario $344.39High scenario ±$27.84 $55.67 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $292.24 · High expected value: $340.89 $292.24Low scenario $340.89High scenario ±$24.33 $48.65 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Epic Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $303.64 · High expected value: $329.47 $303.64Low scenario $329.47High scenario ±$12.92 $25.83 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Fabled Booster Box
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Fabled Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Fabled packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Fabled → · View Fabled card values →

Ranked booster boxes by expected value to box price (Collector value)

# Art Booster box Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $139.53–$237.78 Chase expected value: $78.07 · Non-chase: $101.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.55 P25 $91.45 · P75 $177.24 Expected value to price ratio: 75.5% $179.68 P10 $71.81 · P90 $300.17
  2. Rank 02 Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $85.54–$181.21 Chase expected value: $78.35 · Non-chase: $51.80 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 12.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $58.47 P25 $51.61 · P75 $77.06 Expected value to price ratio: 69.0% $130.15 P10 $47.24 · P90 $229.87
  3. Rank 03 Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $149.94–$210.78 Chase expected value: $61.74 · Non-chase: $113.45 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.7% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $132.62 P25 $106.82 · P75 $171.20 Expected value to price ratio: 65.9% $175.19 P10 $89.07 · P90 $282.84
  4. Rank 04 Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $62.89–$123.58 Chase expected value: $42.49 · Non-chase: $45.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 15.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $46.83 P25 $41.45 · P75 $67.63 Expected value to price ratio: 58.2% $88.27 P10 $38.30 · P90 $213.85
  5. Rank 05 Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $57.63–$99.65 Chase expected value: $31.40 · Non-chase: $45.48 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $46.48 P25 $40.73 · P75 $72.66 Expected value to price ratio: 57.9% $76.88 P10 $37.67 · P90 $157.32
  6. Rank 06 Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $81.42–$225.88 Chase expected value: $72.20 · Non-chase: $58.08 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.3% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $66.07 P25 $57.34 · P75 $88.54 Expected value to price ratio: 54.9% $130.28 P10 $50.50 · P90 $162.18
  7. Rank 07 Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $48.18–$67.85 Chase expected value: $16.21 · Non-chase: $41.10 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.9% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $42.80 P25 $37.31 · P75 $57.22 Expected value to price ratio: 48.5% $57.31 P10 $34.30 · P90 $104.66
  8. Rank 08 Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.62–$73.71 Chase expected value: $17.48 · Non-chase: $42.71 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 9.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $44.37 P25 $37.87 · P75 $64.39 Expected value to price ratio: 48.0% $60.19 P10 $34.37 · P90 $120.15
  9. Rank 09 Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $63.80–$95.39 Chase expected value: $21.35 · Non-chase: $55.01 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.4% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $57.61 P25 $48.89 · P75 $81.68 Expected value to price ratio: 44.5% $76.36 P10 $43.80 · P90 $123.45
  10. Rank 10 Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.05–$75.88 Chase expected value: $21.15 · Non-chase: $39.28 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.1% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $40.62 P25 $36.84 · P75 $51.66 Expected value to price ratio: 42.8% $60.43 P10 $34.59 · P90 $115.95
  11. Rank 11 Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $43.33–$67.37 Chase expected value: $16.94 · Non-chase: $36.48 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.5% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.48 P25 $33.40 · P75 $58.09 Expected value to price ratio: 42.3% $53.42 P10 $31.43 · P90 $106.35
  12. Rank 12 Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $217.28–$436.32 Chase expected value: $187.49 · Non-chase: $129.07 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $170.82 P25 $128.30 · P75 $272.45 Expected value to price ratio: 38.4% $316.55 P10 $101.31 · P90 $611.98
  13. Rank 13 Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $135.95–$235.51 Chase expected value: $64.69 · Non-chase: $110.79 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.4% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $119.81 P25 $86.63 · P75 $204.48 Expected value to price ratio: 35.8% $175.48 P10 $68.68 · P90 $334.33
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the sealed box price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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