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Sealed product reference

Wilds Unknown Booster Box expected value (EV)

Compare booster box expected value (EV), median box outcomes (P50), 10th–90th percentile spreads, and Bayesian chase pull odds before you open or sell a sealed box.

Planning estimate · 40 modeled boxes · English · USD Browse individual card values
Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Merida - Formidable Archer Alien - True Believer

Top chase: Merida - Formidable Archer ($1,687.20) · Wilds Unknown Booster Box

Wilds Unknown Booster BoxClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$130.28Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 90% credible mean: $81.42–$225.88
Expected value to box price
54.9%Sealed market: $237.32 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 5.3%
Median box (P50)
$66.07P10–P90 spread: $50.50–$162.18 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$72.20 (55.4%)Non-chase floor: $58.08 · P(any chase): 84.1%
Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. box price
Chase-driven box (54.9% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $66.07; clearing the $237.32 box cost (5.3% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($237.32) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ Browse set cards →
80% of simulated boxes land between $50.50 (unlucky P10) and $162.18 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $50.50–$162.18 Typical / Median (P50): $66.07 Expected value (Mean): $130.28 Box price: $237.32

Top chase cards in Wilds Unknown Booster Box

Click any card for price history & versions · Collector market prices
  1. Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Holofoil · #241 $3,621.08 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $28.97/box
  2. Merida - Formidable Archer Merida - Formidable Archer Holofoil · #242 $1,687.20 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $13.50/box
  3. Alien - True Believer Alien - True Believer Holofoil · #229 $301.52 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $4.19/box
  4. You've Got a Friend in Me You've Got a Friend in Me Holofoil · #225 $271.01 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $3.76/box
  5. Jessie - Lively Cowgirl Jessie - Lively Cowgirl Holofoil · #223 $156.04 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.17/box
  6. Mr. Incredible - Super Strong Mr. Incredible - Super Strong Holofoil · #234 $107.09 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.49/box
  7. Syndrome - Out for Revenge Syndrome - Out for Revenge Holofoil · #238 $106.99 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.49/box
  8. Milo Thatch - Getting His Hands Dirty Milo Thatch - Getting His Hands Dirty Holofoil · #230 $95.99 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.33/box
  9. Jack-Jack Parr - Incredible Potential Jack-Jack Parr - Incredible Potential Holofoil · #232 $90.76 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.26/box
  10. Touch the Sky Touch the Sky Holofoil · #240 $84.99 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.18/box

Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Iconic Wilds Unknown · 0.0160 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $2,654.38Avg / pulled copy 0.016Copies / box 32.6% $42.47 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Enchanted Wilds Unknown · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $102.28Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 19.6% $25.57 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Super Rare Wilds Unknown · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.24Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 10.8% $14.10 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Common Wilds Unknown · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.06Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 6.7% $8.70 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Rare Wilds Unknown · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.24Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 5.9% $7.68 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Uncommon Wilds Unknown · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.08Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 4.7% $6.11 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Legendary Wilds Unknown · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.35Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 4.1% $5.35 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Epic Wilds Unknown · 1.50 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $2.77Avg / pulled copy 1.50Copies / box 3.2% $4.16 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Cold Foil Uncommon Wilds Unknown · 5.35 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.71Avg / pulled copy 5.35Copies / box 2.9% $3.78 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Legendary Wilds Unknown · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $4.81Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 2.8% $3.61 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Cold Foil Super Rare Wilds Unknown · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $2.83Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 2.7% $3.47 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Cold Foil Common Wilds Unknown · 11.57 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.27Avg / pulled copy 11.57Copies / box 2.4% $3.12 Expected tier contribution
  13. Tier 13 Cold Foil Rare Wilds Unknown · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.65Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 1.7% $2.17 Expected tier contribution

Wilds Unknown Booster Box · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Wilds Unknown · #241 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $3,621.08 $28.97 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $3,621.08
  2. Rank 02 Merida - Formidable Archer Wilds Unknown · #242 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $1,687.20 $13.50 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $1,687.20
  3. Rank 03 Alien - True Believer Wilds Unknown · #229 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $301.52 $4.19 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $301.52
  4. Rank 04 You've Got a Friend in Me Wilds Unknown · #225 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $271.01 $3.76 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $271.01
  5. Rank 05 Jessie - Lively Cowgirl Wilds Unknown · #223 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $156.04 $2.17 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $156.04
  6. Rank 06 Mr. Incredible - Super Strong Wilds Unknown · #234 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $107.09 $1.49 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $107.09
  7. Rank 07 Syndrome - Out for Revenge Wilds Unknown · #238 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $106.99 $1.49 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $106.99
  8. Rank 08 Milo Thatch - Getting His Hands Dirty Wilds Unknown · #230 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $95.99 $1.33 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $95.99
  9. Rank 09 Jack-Jack Parr - Incredible Potential Wilds Unknown · #232 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $90.76 $1.26 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $90.76
  10. Rank 10 Touch the Sky Wilds Unknown · #240 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $84.99 $1.18 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $84.99
Advanced statistical breakdown for Wilds Unknown Booster Box (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Wilds Unknown Booster Box · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Epic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 16.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 3.674%–9.388% per pack 1.5000 expected copies per booster box 3.67%–9.39%90% credible / pack 1 : 16.0Packs 6.25% 1.50 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.414%–1.909% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.91%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Iconic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 1500.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.004%–0.196% per pack 0.0160 expected copies per booster box 0.00%–0.20%90% credible / pack 1 : 1500.0Packs 0.07% 0.02 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Wilds Unknown Booster Box · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Iconic Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $109.06 · High expected value: $172.71 $109.06Low scenario $172.71High scenario ±$31.83 $63.65 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Iconic Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $109.04 · High expected value: $151.51 $109.04Low scenario $151.51High scenario ±$21.24 $42.47 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $117.82 · High expected value: $155.19 $117.82Low scenario $155.19High scenario ±$18.69 $37.37 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $117.49 · High expected value: $143.06 $117.49Low scenario $143.06High scenario ±$12.79 $25.57 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Super Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $123.24 · High expected value: $137.34 $123.24Low scenario $137.34High scenario ±$7.05 $14.10 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Common Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $126.28 · High expected value: $134.98 $126.28Low scenario $134.98High scenario ±$4.35 $8.70 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Wilds Unknown Booster Box
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Wilds Unknown Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Wilds Unknown packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Wilds Unknown → · View Wilds Unknown card values →

Ranked booster boxes by expected value to box price (Collector value)

# Art Booster box Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $139.53–$237.78 Chase expected value: $78.07 · Non-chase: $101.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.55 P25 $91.45 · P75 $177.24 Expected value to price ratio: 75.5% $179.68 P10 $71.81 · P90 $300.17
  2. Rank 02 Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $85.54–$181.21 Chase expected value: $78.35 · Non-chase: $51.80 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 12.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $58.47 P25 $51.61 · P75 $77.06 Expected value to price ratio: 69.0% $130.15 P10 $47.24 · P90 $229.87
  3. Rank 03 Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $149.94–$210.78 Chase expected value: $61.74 · Non-chase: $113.45 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.7% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $132.62 P25 $106.82 · P75 $171.20 Expected value to price ratio: 65.9% $175.19 P10 $89.07 · P90 $282.84
  4. Rank 04 Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $62.89–$123.58 Chase expected value: $42.49 · Non-chase: $45.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 15.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $46.83 P25 $41.45 · P75 $67.63 Expected value to price ratio: 58.2% $88.27 P10 $38.30 · P90 $213.85
  5. Rank 05 Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $57.63–$99.65 Chase expected value: $31.40 · Non-chase: $45.48 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $46.48 P25 $40.73 · P75 $72.66 Expected value to price ratio: 57.9% $76.88 P10 $37.67 · P90 $157.32
  6. Rank 06 Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $81.42–$225.88 Chase expected value: $72.20 · Non-chase: $58.08 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.3% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $66.07 P25 $57.34 · P75 $88.54 Expected value to price ratio: 54.9% $130.28 P10 $50.50 · P90 $162.18
  7. Rank 07 Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $48.18–$67.85 Chase expected value: $16.21 · Non-chase: $41.10 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.9% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $42.80 P25 $37.31 · P75 $57.22 Expected value to price ratio: 48.5% $57.31 P10 $34.30 · P90 $104.66
  8. Rank 08 Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.62–$73.71 Chase expected value: $17.48 · Non-chase: $42.71 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 9.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $44.37 P25 $37.87 · P75 $64.39 Expected value to price ratio: 48.0% $60.19 P10 $34.37 · P90 $120.15
  9. Rank 09 Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $63.80–$95.39 Chase expected value: $21.35 · Non-chase: $55.01 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.4% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $57.61 P25 $48.89 · P75 $81.68 Expected value to price ratio: 44.5% $76.36 P10 $43.80 · P90 $123.45
  10. Rank 10 Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.05–$75.88 Chase expected value: $21.15 · Non-chase: $39.28 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.1% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $40.62 P25 $36.84 · P75 $51.66 Expected value to price ratio: 42.8% $60.43 P10 $34.59 · P90 $115.95
  11. Rank 11 Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $43.33–$67.37 Chase expected value: $16.94 · Non-chase: $36.48 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.5% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.48 P25 $33.40 · P75 $58.09 Expected value to price ratio: 42.3% $53.42 P10 $31.43 · P90 $106.35
  12. Rank 12 Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $217.28–$436.32 Chase expected value: $187.49 · Non-chase: $129.07 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $170.82 P25 $128.30 · P75 $272.45 Expected value to price ratio: 38.4% $316.55 P10 $101.31 · P90 $611.98
  13. Rank 13 Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $135.95–$235.51 Chase expected value: $64.69 · Non-chase: $110.79 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.4% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $119.81 P25 $86.63 · P75 $204.48 Expected value to price ratio: 35.8% $175.48 P10 $68.68 · P90 $334.33
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the sealed box price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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