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Star Wars: Unlimited · Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition) · 12 packs per Carbonite display

Ashes of the Empire Carbonite Display expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median Carbonite display outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Carbonite Edition Booster Display (12 packs) vs. its $221.83 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 12 packs · 624/661 printings priced · USD Browse Ashes of the Empire card values
The Mandalorian — Devoted Rescuer Grand Admiral Thrawn — Orchestrating His Return Luke Skywalker — I Can Save Him

Top chase: Grand Admiral Thrawn — Orchestrating His Return ($350.00) · Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition)

Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition)Clear all
Expected box value (EV)
$308.47Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition) · 90% credible mean: $267.58–$346.70
Expected value to box price
139.1%Reflective market: $221.83 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 68.1%
Median box (P50)
$265.57P10–P90 spread: $171.04–$506.76 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$80.58 (26.1%)Non-chase floor: $227.89 · P(any chase): 45.8%
Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Carbonite Edition Booster Display · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
★ Positive expected value (139.1% of box price)Average box value ($308.47) exceeds the $221.83 reflective market price; a typical (median) box returns $265.57.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($221.83) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $171.04 (unlucky P10) and $506.76 (lucky P90) 12 packs per Carbonite display · 624/661 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $171.04–$506.76 Typical / Median (P50): $265.57 Expected value (Mean): $308.47 Box price: $221.83

Top chase cards in Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition)

Click any card for price history & versions · Collector market prices
  1. The Mandalorian — Devoted Rescuer The Mandalorian — Devoted Rescuer Foil (prestige, serialized) · #889 $600.00 ~1 in 235.0 boxes · EV $2.55/box
  2. Grand Admiral Thrawn — Orchestrating His Return Grand Admiral Thrawn — Orchestrating His Return Foil (prestige, serialized) · #882 $350.00 ~1 in 235.0 boxes · EV $1.49/box
  3. Luke Skywalker — I Can Save Him Luke Skywalker — I Can Save Him Foil (showcase) · #771 $347.84 ~1 in 45.0 boxes · EV $7.73/box
  4. Ahsoka Tano — Trust in the Force Ahsoka Tano — Trust in the Force Foil (showcase) · #775 $335.22 ~1 in 45.0 boxes · EV $7.45/box
  5. Cad Bane — Still Faster Than You Cad Bane — Still Faster Than You Foil (showcase) · #777 $306.11 ~1 in 45.0 boxes · EV $6.80/box
  6. Wicket — Yub Nub! Wicket — Yub Nub! Foil (prestige, serialized) · #920 $271.73 ~1 in 235.0 boxes · EV $1.16/box
  7. The Mandalorian — We Can't Keep Running The Mandalorian — We Can't Keep Running Foil (showcase) · #780 $270.29 ~1 in 45.0 boxes · EV $6.01/box
  8. Sabine Wren — I Learned the Hard Way Sabine Wren — I Learned the Hard Way Foil (prestige, serialized) · #905 $250.00 ~1 in 235.0 boxes · EV $1.06/box
  9. Bo-Katan Kryze — Reclaiming Mandalore Bo-Katan Kryze — Reclaiming Mandalore Foil (showcase) · #776 $214.67 ~1 in 45.0 boxes · EV $4.77/box
  10. The Armorer — Steel Shapes Us The Armorer — Steel Shapes Us Foil (showcase) · #767 $198.21 ~1 in 45.0 boxes · EV $4.40/box

Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Carbonite Edition Booster Display · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Showcase Leader Ashes of the Empire · 0.40 expected copies per Carbonite display Chase tier $180.10Avg / pulled copy 0.40Copies / box 23.4% $72.04 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Hyperspace Foil Legendary Ashes of the Empire · 3.78 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $13.89Avg / pulled copy 3.78Copies / box 17.0% $52.54 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Hyperspace Foil Rare Ashes of the Empire · 15.00 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $2.36Avg / pulled copy 15.00Copies / box 11.5% $35.37 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Prestige Foil Ashes of the Empire · 3.91 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $7.96Avg / pulled copy 3.91Copies / box 10.1% $31.13 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Hyperspace Legendary Ashes of the Empire · 2.67 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $11.55Avg / pulled copy 2.67Copies / box 10.0% $30.80 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Prestige Ashes of the Empire · 7.89 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $3.40Avg / pulled copy 7.89Copies / box 8.7% $26.82 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Hyperspace Foil Uncommon Ashes of the Empire · 31.70 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $0.41Avg / pulled copy 31.70Copies / box 4.2% $12.96 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Hyperspace Rare Ashes of the Empire · 6.95 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $1.69Avg / pulled copy 6.95Copies / box 3.8% $11.76 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Prestige Serialized Ashes of the Empire · 0.20 expected copies per Carbonite display Chase tier 37 unpriced in catalog ($0 floor) $42.70Avg / pulled copy 0.20Copies / box 2.8% $8.54 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Hyperspace Foil Common Ashes of the Empire · 54.00 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $0.15Avg / pulled copy 54.00Copies / box 2.6% $8.17 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Hyperspace Uncommon Ashes of the Empire · 15.89 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $0.32Avg / pulled copy 15.89Copies / box 1.6% $5.03 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Hyperspace Common Ashes of the Empire · 33.00 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $0.15Avg / pulled copy 33.00Copies / box 1.6% $4.85 Expected tier contribution
  13. Tier 13 Hyperspace Foil Special Ashes of the Empire · 3.51 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $1.04Avg / pulled copy 3.51Copies / box 1.2% $3.67 Expected tier contribution
  14. Tier 14 Hyperspace Leader Ashes of the Empire · 11.60 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $0.28Avg / pulled copy 11.60Copies / box 1.0% $3.21 Expected tier contribution
  15. Tier 15 Hyperspace Special Ashes of the Empire · 1.49 expected copies per Carbonite display Non-chase tier $1.07Avg / pulled copy 1.49Copies / box 0.5% $1.60 Expected tier contribution

Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition) · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 The Mandalorian — Devoted Rescuer Ashes of the Empire · #889 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 235.0 boxes 1 : 235.0Box odds 0.0043Copies / box $600.00 $2.55 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $600.00
  2. Rank 02 Grand Admiral Thrawn — Orchestrating His Return Ashes of the Empire · #882 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 235.0 boxes 1 : 235.0Box odds 0.0043Copies / box $350.00 $1.49 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $350.00
  3. Rank 03 Luke Skywalker — I Can Save Him Ashes of the Empire · #771 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 45.0 boxes 1 : 45.0Box odds 0.0222Copies / box $347.84 $7.73 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $347.84
  4. Rank 04 Ahsoka Tano — Trust in the Force Ashes of the Empire · #775 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 45.0 boxes 1 : 45.0Box odds 0.0222Copies / box $335.22 $7.45 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $335.22
  5. Rank 05 Cad Bane — Still Faster Than You Ashes of the Empire · #777 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 45.0 boxes 1 : 45.0Box odds 0.0222Copies / box $306.11 $6.80 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $306.11
  6. Rank 06 Wicket — Yub Nub! Ashes of the Empire · #920 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 235.0 boxes 1 : 235.0Box odds 0.0043Copies / box $271.73 $1.16 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $271.73
  7. Rank 07 The Mandalorian — We Can't Keep Running Ashes of the Empire · #780 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 45.0 boxes 1 : 45.0Box odds 0.0222Copies / box $270.29 $6.01 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $270.29
  8. Rank 08 Sabine Wren — I Learned the Hard Way Ashes of the Empire · #905 Foil (prestige, serialized) Prestige Serialized · ~1 in 235.0 boxes 1 : 235.0Box odds 0.0043Copies / box $250.00 $1.06 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $250.00
  9. Rank 09 Bo-Katan Kryze — Reclaiming Mandalore Ashes of the Empire · #776 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 45.0 boxes 1 : 45.0Box odds 0.0222Copies / box $214.67 $4.77 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $214.67
  10. Rank 10 The Armorer — Steel Shapes Us Ashes of the Empire · #767 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 45.0 boxes 1 : 45.0Box odds 0.0222Copies / box $198.21 $4.40 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $198.21
Advanced statistical breakdown for Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition) (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition) · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Showcase Leader Pack slot: Leader · ~1 in 30.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 1.809%–5.236% per pack 0.4000 expected copies per Carbonite display 1.81%–5.24%90% credible / pack 1 : 30.0Packs 3.33% 0.40 / box Posterior mean per Carbonite display
  2. 02 Prestige Serialized Pack slot: Prestige · ~1 in 60.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.276%–3.932% per pack 0.2000 expected copies per Carbonite display 0.28%–3.93%90% credible / pack 1 : 60.0Packs 1.67% 0.20 / box Posterior mean per Carbonite display

Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition) · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Showcase Leader Slot: Leader · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $272.50 · High expected value: $380.39 $272.50Low scenario $380.39High scenario ±$53.95 $107.89 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Showcase Leader Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $272.45 · High expected value: $344.49 $272.45Low scenario $344.49High scenario ±$36.02 $72.04 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Hyperspace Foil Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $282.21 · High expected value: $334.74 $282.21Low scenario $334.74High scenario ±$26.27 $52.53 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Hyperspace Foil Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $290.82 · High expected value: $326.19 $290.82Low scenario $326.19High scenario ±$17.69 $35.37 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Prestige Foil Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $292.91 · High expected value: $324.04 $292.91Low scenario $324.04High scenario ±$15.57 $31.13 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Hyperspace Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $293.07 · High expected value: $323.88 $293.07Low scenario $323.88High scenario ±$15.41 $30.81 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition)
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • 37 modeled variants have no FoilFox price and count as zero, so the mean is a lower bound.
  • Within-treatment rarity mixes use Jump to Lightspeed Carbonite empirical samples with wide Beta priors.
  • Serialized Prestige variants without a FoilFox price stay unpriced ($0 floor) and never borrow ordinary Prestige prices.
  • Every card in a pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Ashes of the Empire Carbonite Display on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Ashes of the Empire packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Ashes of the Empire → · View Ashes of the Empire card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Collector value)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Secrets of Power Star Wars: Unlimited - Secrets of Power Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 988/990 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $88.57–$104.65 Chase expected value: $7.38 · Non-chase: $87.95 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 100.0% $43.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $90.45 P25 $80.71 · P75 $102.84 Expected value to price ratio: 221.1% $95.33 P10 $72.96 · P90 $120.05
  2. Rank 02 Homeworlds Star Wars: Unlimited - Homeworlds Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 713/776 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $156.97–$195.15 Chase expected value: $27.46 · Non-chase: $143.33 P(any chase): 95.5% · P(box ≥ cost): 100.0% $79.76 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $158.21 P25 $142.29 · P75 $177.77 Expected value to price ratio: 214.1% $170.78 P10 $131.58 · P90 $203.27
  3. Rank 03 Ashes of the Empire Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 760/760 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $116.12–$156.67 Chase expected value: $28.76 · Non-chase: $104.37 P(any chase): 95.5% · P(box ≥ cost): 97.7% $75.23 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $115.96 P25 $96.44 · P75 $144.14 Expected value to price ratio: 177.0% $133.14 P10 $85.49 · P90 $189.69
  4. Rank 04 Secrets of Power (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Secrets of Power Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 867/887 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $163.16–$198.85 Chase expected value: $38.45 · Non-chase: $141.04 P(any chase): 45.4% · P(box ≥ cost): 98.2% $103.75 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $160.20 P25 $135.38 · P75 $205.64 Expected value to price ratio: 173.0% $179.49 P10 $119.92 · P90 $262.08
  5. Rank 05 Legends of the Force Star Wars: Unlimited - Legends of the Force Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 989/990 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $66.39–$81.85 Chase expected value: $8.41 · Non-chase: $63.95 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 100.0% $42.29 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $65.53 P25 $58.47 · P75 $75.17 Expected value to price ratio: 171.1% $72.36 P10 $54.01 · P90 $89.92
  6. Rank 06 A Lawless Time Star Wars: Unlimited - A Lawless Time Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 760/760 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $109.93–$147.82 Chase expected value: $26.72 · Non-chase: $96.79 P(any chase): 95.5% · P(box ≥ cost): 97.8% $74.87 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $110.13 P25 $94.97 · P75 $130.32 Expected value to price ratio: 165.0% $123.51 P10 $84.74 · P90 $161.64
  7. Rank 07 Twilight of the Republic Star Wars: Unlimited - Twilight of the Republic Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 940/940 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $47.07–$69.01 Chase expected value: $9.88 · Non-chase: $44.15 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 100.0% $33.09 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $45.71 P25 $42.65 · P75 $49.83 Expected value to price ratio: 163.3% $54.03 P10 $40.38 · P90 $58.26
  8. Rank 08 Jump to Lightspeed Star Wars: Unlimited - Jump to Lightspeed Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 977/982 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $82.27–$99.14 Chase expected value: $7.67 · Non-chase: $81.70 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 99.8% $56.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $83.51 P25 $74.17 · P75 $94.72 Expected value to price ratio: 158.8% $89.37 P10 $67.78 · P90 $110.59
  9. Rank 09 A Lawless Time (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - A Lawless Time Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 616/637 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $248.13–$318.49 Chase expected value: $74.52 · Non-chase: $211.77 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 82.9% $184.44 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $247.87 P25 $198.87 · P75 $344.78 Expected value to price ratio: 155.2% $286.30 P10 $170.30 · P90 $462.43
  10. Rank 10 Spark of Rebellion Star Wars: Unlimited - Spark of Rebellion Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 938/938 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $82.61–$105.39 Chase expected value: $13.86 · Non-chase: $79.33 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 97.1% $61.89 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $84.19 P25 $75.15 · P75 $95.17 Expected value to price ratio: 150.6% $93.19 P10 $68.07 · P90 $114.65
  11. Rank 11 Homeworlds (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Homeworlds Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 577/672 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $327.33–$396.77 Chase expected value: $53.01 · Non-chase: $305.40 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 91.2% $243.76 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $321.58 P25 $279.78 · P75 $396.31 Expected value to price ratio: 147.0% $358.42 P10 $247.40 · P90 $548.12
  12. Rank 12 Shadows of the Galaxy Star Wars: Unlimited - Shadows of the Galaxy Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 939/940 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $62.54–$83.10 Chase expected value: $10.29 · Non-chase: $60.12 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 97.8% $48.91 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $62.33 P25 $56.91 · P75 $69.80 Expected value to price ratio: 143.9% $70.40 P10 $52.71 · P90 $82.55
  13. Rank 13 Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 624/661 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $267.58–$346.70 Chase expected value: $80.58 · Non-chase: $227.89 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 68.1% $221.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $265.57 P25 $207.04 · P75 $367.47 Expected value to price ratio: 139.1% $308.47 P10 $171.04 · P90 $506.76
  14. Rank 14 Legends of the Force (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Legends of the Force Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 870/896 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $175.83–$223.01 Chase expected value: $44.31 · Non-chase: $150.43 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 74.3% $144.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $168.08 P25 $143.55 · P75 $216.78 Expected value to price ratio: 135.0% $194.74 P10 $127.30 · P90 $279.31
  15. Rank 15 Jump to Lightspeed (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Jump to Lightspeed Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 835/860 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $181.31–$217.76 Chase expected value: $35.48 · Non-chase: $161.71 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 47.4% $183.15 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $179.55 P25 $154.05 · P75 $218.39 Expected value to price ratio: 107.7% $197.18 P10 $137.79 · P90 $285.32
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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