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Sealed product reference

Shimmering Skies Booster Box expected value (EV)

Compare booster box expected value (EV), median box outcomes (P50), 10th–90th percentile spreads, and Bayesian chase pull odds before you open or sell a sealed box.

Planning estimate · 40 modeled boxes · English · USD Browse individual card values
Mufasa - Ruler of Pride Rock Snow White - Fair-Hearted Donald Duck - Pie Slinger

Top chase: Snow White - Fair-Hearted ($161.96) · Shimmering Skies Booster Box

Shimmering Skies Booster BoxClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$60.43Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 90% credible mean: $49.05–$75.88
Expected value to box price
42.8%Sealed market: $141.11 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 7.1%
Median box (P50)
$40.62P10–P90 spread: $34.59–$115.95 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$21.15 (35.0%)Non-chase floor: $39.28 · P(any chase): 23.6%
Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. box price
Chase-driven box (42.8% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $40.62; clearing the $141.11 box cost (7.1% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($141.11) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ Browse set cards →
80% of simulated boxes land between $34.59 (unlucky P10) and $115.95 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $34.59–$115.95 Typical / Median (P50): $40.62 Expected value (Mean): $60.43 Box price: $141.11

Top chase cards in Shimmering Skies Booster Box

Click any card for price history & versions · Collector market prices
  1. Mufasa - Ruler of Pride Rock Mufasa - Ruler of Pride Rock Holofoil · #217 $341.21 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $4.74/box
  2. Snow White - Fair-Hearted Snow White - Fair-Hearted Holofoil · #220 $161.96 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.25/box
  3. Donald Duck - Pie Slinger Donald Duck - Pie Slinger Holofoil · #214 $115.32 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.60/box
  4. Scar - Vengeful Lion Scar - Vengeful Lion Holofoil · #212 $112.27 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.56/box
  5. Robin Hood - Sharpshooter Robin Hood - Sharpshooter Holofoil · #215 $97.45 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.35/box
  6. Olaf - Happy Passenger Olaf - Happy Passenger Holofoil · #209 $97.20 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.35/box
  7. You're Welcome You're Welcome Holofoil · #213 $75.82 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.05/box
  8. Arthur - King Victorious Arthur - King Victorious Holofoil · #221 $69.60 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.97/box
  9. Vanellope von Schweetz - Sugar Rush Princess Vanellope von Schweetz - Sugar Rush Princess Holofoil · #206 $65.41 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.91/box
  10. Archimedes - Electrified Owl Archimedes - Electrified Owl Holofoil · #208 $62.32 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.87/box

Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Shimmering Skies · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $84.60Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 35.0% $21.15 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Common Shimmering Skies · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.06Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 15.0% $9.04 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Uncommon Shimmering Skies · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.09Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 10.8% $6.51 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Rare Shimmering Skies · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.18Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 9.6% $5.83 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Legendary Shimmering Skies · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.09Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 7.2% $4.33 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Cold Foil Legendary Shimmering Skies · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $3.56Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 4.4% $2.67 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Super Rare Shimmering Skies · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.23Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 4.4% $2.67 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Cold Foil Common Shimmering Skies · 12.61 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.20Avg / pulled copy 12.61Copies / box 4.3% $2.58 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Cold Foil Uncommon Shimmering Skies · 5.83 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.41Avg / pulled copy 5.83Copies / box 3.9% $2.36 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Rare Shimmering Skies · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.66Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 3.6% $2.19 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Cold Foil Super Rare Shimmering Skies · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.90Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 1.8% $1.10 Expected tier contribution

Shimmering Skies Booster Box · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Mufasa - Ruler of Pride Rock Shimmering Skies · #217 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $341.21 $4.74 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $341.21
  2. Rank 02 Snow White - Fair-Hearted Shimmering Skies · #220 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $161.96 $2.25 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $161.96
  3. Rank 03 Donald Duck - Pie Slinger Shimmering Skies · #214 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $115.32 $1.60 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $115.32
  4. Rank 04 Scar - Vengeful Lion Shimmering Skies · #212 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $112.27 $1.56 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $112.27
  5. Rank 05 Robin Hood - Sharpshooter Shimmering Skies · #215 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $97.45 $1.35 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $97.45
  6. Rank 06 Olaf - Happy Passenger Shimmering Skies · #209 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $97.20 $1.35 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $97.20
  7. Rank 07 You're Welcome Shimmering Skies · #213 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $75.82 $1.05 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $75.82
  8. Rank 08 Arthur - King Victorious Shimmering Skies · #221 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $69.60 $0.97 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $69.60
  9. Rank 09 Vanellope von Schweetz - Sugar Rush Princess Shimmering Skies · #206 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $65.41 $0.91 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $65.41
  10. Rank 10 Archimedes - Electrified Owl Shimmering Skies · #208 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $62.32 $0.87 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $62.32
Advanced statistical breakdown for Shimmering Skies Booster Box (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Shimmering Skies Booster Box · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.406%–1.921% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.92%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Shimmering Skies Booster Box · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $49.91 · High expected value: $81.47 $49.91Low scenario $81.47High scenario ±$15.78 $31.56 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $49.86 · High expected value: $71.01 $49.86Low scenario $71.01High scenario ±$10.58 $21.15 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Common Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $56.27 · High expected value: $65.31 $56.27Low scenario $65.31High scenario ±$4.52 $9.04 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Uncommon Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $57.38 · High expected value: $63.88 $57.38Low scenario $63.88High scenario ±$3.25 $6.50 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $57.58 · High expected value: $63.42 $57.58Low scenario $63.42High scenario ±$2.92 $5.84 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $58.28 · High expected value: $62.61 $58.28Low scenario $62.61High scenario ±$2.17 $4.33 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Shimmering Skies Booster Box
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Shimmering Skies Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Shimmering Skies packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Shimmering Skies → · View Shimmering Skies card values →

Ranked booster boxes by expected value to box price (Collector value)

# Art Booster box Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $139.53–$237.78 Chase expected value: $78.07 · Non-chase: $101.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.55 P25 $91.45 · P75 $177.24 Expected value to price ratio: 75.5% $179.68 P10 $71.81 · P90 $300.17
  2. Rank 02 Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $85.54–$181.21 Chase expected value: $78.35 · Non-chase: $51.80 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 12.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $58.47 P25 $51.61 · P75 $77.06 Expected value to price ratio: 69.0% $130.15 P10 $47.24 · P90 $229.87
  3. Rank 03 Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $149.94–$210.78 Chase expected value: $61.74 · Non-chase: $113.45 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.7% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $132.62 P25 $106.82 · P75 $171.20 Expected value to price ratio: 65.9% $175.19 P10 $89.07 · P90 $282.84
  4. Rank 04 Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $62.89–$123.58 Chase expected value: $42.49 · Non-chase: $45.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 15.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $46.83 P25 $41.45 · P75 $67.63 Expected value to price ratio: 58.2% $88.27 P10 $38.30 · P90 $213.85
  5. Rank 05 Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $57.63–$99.65 Chase expected value: $31.40 · Non-chase: $45.48 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $46.48 P25 $40.73 · P75 $72.66 Expected value to price ratio: 57.9% $76.88 P10 $37.67 · P90 $157.32
  6. Rank 06 Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $81.42–$225.88 Chase expected value: $72.20 · Non-chase: $58.08 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.3% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $66.07 P25 $57.34 · P75 $88.54 Expected value to price ratio: 54.9% $130.28 P10 $50.50 · P90 $162.18
  7. Rank 07 Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $48.18–$67.85 Chase expected value: $16.21 · Non-chase: $41.10 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.9% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $42.80 P25 $37.31 · P75 $57.22 Expected value to price ratio: 48.5% $57.31 P10 $34.30 · P90 $104.66
  8. Rank 08 Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.62–$73.71 Chase expected value: $17.48 · Non-chase: $42.71 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 9.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $44.37 P25 $37.87 · P75 $64.39 Expected value to price ratio: 48.0% $60.19 P10 $34.37 · P90 $120.15
  9. Rank 09 Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $63.80–$95.39 Chase expected value: $21.35 · Non-chase: $55.01 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.4% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $57.61 P25 $48.89 · P75 $81.68 Expected value to price ratio: 44.5% $76.36 P10 $43.80 · P90 $123.45
  10. Rank 10 Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.05–$75.88 Chase expected value: $21.15 · Non-chase: $39.28 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.1% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $40.62 P25 $36.84 · P75 $51.66 Expected value to price ratio: 42.8% $60.43 P10 $34.59 · P90 $115.95
  11. Rank 11 Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $43.33–$67.37 Chase expected value: $16.94 · Non-chase: $36.48 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.5% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.48 P25 $33.40 · P75 $58.09 Expected value to price ratio: 42.3% $53.42 P10 $31.43 · P90 $106.35
  12. Rank 12 Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $217.28–$436.32 Chase expected value: $187.49 · Non-chase: $129.07 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $170.82 P25 $128.30 · P75 $272.45 Expected value to price ratio: 38.4% $316.55 P10 $101.31 · P90 $611.98
  13. Rank 13 Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box Disney Lorcana · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $135.95–$235.51 Chase expected value: $64.69 · Non-chase: $110.79 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.4% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $119.81 P25 $86.63 · P75 $204.48 Expected value to price ratio: 35.8% $175.48 P10 $68.68 · P90 $334.33
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the sealed box price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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