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Disney Lorcana · Sealed booster box reference

Disney Lorcana booster box expected value (EV)

Compare Disney Lorcana booster box expected value (EV), median 24-pack box outcomes (P50), Enchanted & Iconic chase pull odds, and reflective TCGplayer market prices across 13 modeled sets.

Planning estimate · 13 Disney Lorcana sets · English · USD Browse Disney Lorcana card values
Ariel - Ethereal Voice Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Moana - Curious Explorer

Top chase: Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun ($1,953.35) · Attack of the Vine!

Disney LorcanaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$179.68Whispers in the Well · 90% credible mean: $139.53–$237.78
Expected value to box price
75.5%Reflective market: $238.12 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5%
Median box (P50)
$123.55P10–P90 spread: $71.81–$300.17 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$78.07 (43.4%)Non-chase floor: $101.62 · P(any chase): 84.1%
Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (75.5% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $123.55; clearing the $238.12 reflective market price (14.5% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($238.12) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $71.81 (unlucky P10) and $300.17 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $71.81–$300.17 Typical / Median (P50): $123.55 Expected value (Mean): $179.68 Box price: $238.12

Top chase cards in Whispers in the Well

Click any card for price history & versions · Collector market prices
  1. Ariel - Ethereal Voice Ariel - Ethereal Voice Holofoil · #241 $1,482.58 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $11.86/box
  2. Hades - Looking for a Deal Hades - Looking for a Deal Holofoil · #242 $1,066.67 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $8.53/box
  3. Spooky Sight Spooky Sight Holofoil · #237 $724.57 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $10.06/box
  4. Cinderella - Dream Come True Cinderella - Dream Come True Holofoil · #236 $499.24 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $6.93/box
  5. Can't Hold It Back Anymore Can't Hold It Back Anymore Holofoil · #228 $252.87 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $3.51/box
  6. Demona - Scourge of the Wyvern Clan Demona - Scourge of the Wyvern Clan Holofoil · #227 $235.06 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $3.26/box
  7. Nick Wilde - Persistent Investigator Nick Wilde - Persistent Investigator Holofoil · #239 $201.24 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.80/box
  8. The Headless Horseman - Terror of Sleepy Hollow The Headless Horseman - Terror of Sleepy Hollow Holofoil · #232 $200.04 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.78/box
  9. Simba - King in the Making Simba - King in the Making Holofoil · #224 $197.94 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.75/box
  10. Judy Hopps - Lead Detective Judy Hopps - Lead Detective Holofoil · #235 $142.35 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.98/box

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Collector value)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $139.53–$237.78 Chase expected value: $78.07 · Non-chase: $101.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.55 P25 $91.45 · P75 $177.24 Expected value to price ratio: 75.5% $179.68 P10 $71.81 · P90 $300.17
  2. Rank 02 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $85.54–$181.21 Chase expected value: $78.35 · Non-chase: $51.80 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 12.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $58.47 P25 $51.61 · P75 $77.06 Expected value to price ratio: 69.0% $130.15 P10 $47.24 · P90 $229.87
  3. Rank 03 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $149.94–$210.78 Chase expected value: $61.74 · Non-chase: $113.45 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.7% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $132.62 P25 $106.82 · P75 $171.20 Expected value to price ratio: 65.9% $175.19 P10 $89.07 · P90 $282.84
  4. Rank 04 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $62.89–$123.58 Chase expected value: $42.49 · Non-chase: $45.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 15.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $46.83 P25 $41.45 · P75 $67.63 Expected value to price ratio: 58.2% $88.27 P10 $38.30 · P90 $213.85
  5. Rank 05 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $57.63–$99.65 Chase expected value: $31.40 · Non-chase: $45.48 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.5% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $46.48 P25 $40.73 · P75 $72.66 Expected value to price ratio: 57.9% $76.88 P10 $37.67 · P90 $157.32
  6. Rank 06 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $81.42–$225.88 Chase expected value: $72.20 · Non-chase: $58.08 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.3% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $66.07 P25 $57.34 · P75 $88.54 Expected value to price ratio: 54.9% $130.28 P10 $50.50 · P90 $162.18
  7. Rank 07 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $48.18–$67.85 Chase expected value: $16.21 · Non-chase: $41.10 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.9% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $42.80 P25 $37.31 · P75 $57.22 Expected value to price ratio: 48.5% $57.31 P10 $34.30 · P90 $104.66
  8. Rank 08 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.62–$73.71 Chase expected value: $17.48 · Non-chase: $42.71 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 9.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $44.37 P25 $37.87 · P75 $64.39 Expected value to price ratio: 48.0% $60.19 P10 $34.37 · P90 $120.15
  9. Rank 09 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $63.80–$95.39 Chase expected value: $21.35 · Non-chase: $55.01 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.4% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $57.61 P25 $48.89 · P75 $81.68 Expected value to price ratio: 44.5% $76.36 P10 $43.80 · P90 $123.45
  10. Rank 10 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.05–$75.88 Chase expected value: $21.15 · Non-chase: $39.28 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.1% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $40.62 P25 $36.84 · P75 $51.66 Expected value to price ratio: 42.8% $60.43 P10 $34.59 · P90 $115.95
  11. Rank 11 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $43.33–$67.37 Chase expected value: $16.94 · Non-chase: $36.48 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.5% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.48 P25 $33.40 · P75 $58.09 Expected value to price ratio: 42.3% $53.42 P10 $31.43 · P90 $106.35
  12. Rank 12 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $217.28–$436.32 Chase expected value: $187.49 · Non-chase: $129.07 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $170.82 P25 $128.30 · P75 $272.45 Expected value to price ratio: 38.4% $316.55 P10 $101.31 · P90 $611.98
  13. Rank 13 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $135.95–$235.51 Chase expected value: $64.69 · Non-chase: $110.79 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.4% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $119.81 P25 $86.63 · P75 $204.48 Expected value to price ratio: 35.8% $175.48 P10 $68.68 · P90 $334.33

Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Whispers in the Well · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $184.76Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 25.7% $46.19 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Legendary Whispers in the Well · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $10.31Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 22.8% $41.02 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Iconic Whispers in the Well · 0.0160 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $1,274.38Avg / pulled copy 0.016Copies / box 11.3% $20.39 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Cold Foil Legendary Whispers in the Well · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $16.88Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 7.0% $12.66 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Epic Whispers in the Well · 1.50 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $7.65Avg / pulled copy 1.50Copies / box 6.4% $11.48 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Rare Whispers in the Well · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.32Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 5.9% $10.53 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Uncommon Whispers in the Well · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.12Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 4.6% $8.28 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Common Whispers in the Well · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.06Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 4.5% $8.10 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Super Rare Whispers in the Well · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.60Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 3.8% $6.84 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Rare Whispers in the Well · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.53Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 2.8% $5.12 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Cold Foil Uncommon Whispers in the Well · 5.35 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.74Avg / pulled copy 5.35Copies / box 2.2% $3.97 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Cold Foil Common Whispers in the Well · 11.57 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.23Avg / pulled copy 11.57Copies / box 1.5% $2.70 Expected tier contribution
  13. Tier 13 Cold Foil Super Rare Whispers in the Well · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.94Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 1.3% $2.38 Expected tier contribution

Whispers in the Well · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Ariel - Ethereal Voice Whispers in the Well · #241 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $1,482.58 $11.86 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $1,482.58
  2. Rank 02 Hades - Looking for a Deal Whispers in the Well · #242 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $1,066.67 $8.53 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $1,066.67
  3. Rank 03 Spooky Sight Whispers in the Well · #237 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $724.57 $10.06 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $724.57
  4. Rank 04 Cinderella - Dream Come True Whispers in the Well · #236 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $499.24 $6.93 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $499.24
  5. Rank 05 Can't Hold It Back Anymore Whispers in the Well · #228 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $252.87 $3.51 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $252.87
  6. Rank 06 Demona - Scourge of the Wyvern Clan Whispers in the Well · #227 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $235.06 $3.26 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $235.06
  7. Rank 07 Nick Wilde - Persistent Investigator Whispers in the Well · #239 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $201.24 $2.80 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $201.24
  8. Rank 08 The Headless Horseman - Terror of Sleepy Hollow Whispers in the Well · #232 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $200.04 $2.78 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $200.04
  9. Rank 09 Simba - King in the Making Whispers in the Well · #224 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $197.94 $2.75 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $197.94
  10. Rank 10 Judy Hopps - Lead Detective Whispers in the Well · #235 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $142.35 $1.98 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $142.35
Advanced statistical breakdown for Whispers in the Well (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Whispers in the Well · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Epic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 16.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 3.674%–9.388% per pack 1.5000 expected copies per booster box 3.67%–9.39%90% credible / pack 1 : 16.0Packs 6.25% 1.50 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.414%–1.909% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.91%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Iconic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 1500.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.004%–0.196% per pack 0.0160 expected copies per booster box 0.00%–0.20%90% credible / pack 1 : 1500.0Packs 0.07% 0.02 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Whispers in the Well · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $156.90 · High expected value: $225.26 $156.90Low scenario $225.26High scenario ±$34.18 $68.36 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $156.59 · High expected value: $202.78 $156.59Low scenario $202.78High scenario ±$23.10 $46.19 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $159.18 · High expected value: $200.20 $159.18Low scenario $200.20High scenario ±$20.51 $41.02 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Pull rate: Iconic Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $169.51 · High expected value: $200.02 $169.51Low scenario $200.02High scenario ±$15.26 $30.51 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Iconic Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $169.49 · High expected value: $189.88 $169.49Low scenario $189.88High scenario ±$10.20 $20.39 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Cold Foil Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $173.35 · High expected value: $186.02 $173.35Low scenario $186.02High scenario ±$6.34 $12.67 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Whispers in the Well
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Whispers in the Well Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Whispers in the Well packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Whispers in the Well → · View Whispers in the Well card values →

How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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