FoilFox
Menu
Get the free appOpen Dashboard

Pokémon · Sealed booster box reference

Pokémon booster box expected value (EV)

Compare Pokémon Scarlet & Violet booster box expected value (EV), median 36-pack box outcomes (P50), Special Illustration Rare pull odds, and reflective TCGplayer market prices across 12 modeled sets.

Planning estimate · 12 Pokémon sets · English · USD Browse Pokémon card values
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex Magikarp Greninja ex

Featured chase cards · Magikarp ($310.84) · Paldea Evolved

PokémonSeller net personaClear all
Highest expected box value (EV)
$121.20Temporal Forces · Median (P50): $113.99
Expected value to box price
39.5% leaderTemporal Forces ($121.20 EV vs. $306.92 box) · 0/12 sets ≥ 100%
Median box (P50) range
$32.01–$113.99Across 12 Pokémon sets · Click any row below to inspect box spread
Chase share of expected value
81.3% avgCard values updated Oct 14, 2026 · Sealed market 2026-10-14

Top chase cards across Pokémon sets

Select any set below for its box outcome distribution & pull-rate breakdown · Seller net prices
  1. Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex Destined Rivals · en · Holo $315.85 ~1 in 26.3 boxes · EV $11.99/box
  2. Magikarp Magikarp Paldea Evolved · en · Holo $310.84 ~1 in 13.0 boxes · EV $23.93/box
  3. Greninja ex Greninja ex Twilight Masquerade · en · Holo $275.23 ~1 in 26.3 boxes · EV $10.45/box
  4. Pikachu ex Pikachu ex Surging Sparks · en · Holo $237.93 ~1 in 26.3 boxes · EV $9.03/box
  5. Mega Lucario ex Mega Lucario ex Mega Evolution · en · Holo $196.58 ~1 in 7.7 boxes · EV $25.48/box
  6. Cynthia's Garchomp ex Cynthia's Garchomp ex Destined Rivals · en · Holo $163.01 ~1 in 26.3 boxes · EV $6.19/box
  7. Latias ex Latias ex Surging Sparks · en · Holo $156.77 ~1 in 26.3 boxes · EV $5.95/box
  8. Mega Gardevoir ex Mega Gardevoir ex Mega Evolution · en · Holo $148.04 ~1 in 7.7 boxes · EV $19.19/box
  9. Mega Gardevoir ex Mega Gardevoir ex Mega Evolution · en · Holo $147.46 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $6.16/box
  10. Mega Lucario ex Mega Lucario ex Mega Evolution · en · Holo $147.13 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $6.14/box

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Set artwork Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Temporal Forces Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Temporal Forces Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 360/360 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $106.97–$136.71 Chase expected value: $96.45 · Non-chase: $24.75 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 0.3% $306.92 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $113.99 P25 $82.09 · P75 $153.14 Expected value to price ratio: 39.5% $121.20 P10 $58.86 · P90 $192.45
  2. Rank 02 Chaos Rising Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution - Chaos Rising Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 198/198 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $44.06–$91.94 Chase expected value: $54.41 · Non-chase: $10.62 P(any chase): 99.7% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.6% $185.15 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $32.01 P25 $20.88 · P75 $125.95 Expected value to price ratio: 35.1% $65.04 P10 $16.84 · P90 $146.10
  3. Rank 03 Mega Evolution Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 310/310 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $72.78–$154.87 Chase expected value: $94.40 · Non-chase: $11.99 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.6% $303.71 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $55.06 P25 $32.21 · P75 $177.60 Expected value to price ratio: 35.0% $106.39 P10 $22.41 · P90 $237.00
  4. Rank 04 Stellar Crown Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Stellar Crown Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 300/300 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $75.70–$110.47 Chase expected value: $68.37 · Non-chase: $22.32 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 0.3% $299.66 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $69.85 P25 $46.39 · P75 $125.80 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $90.69 P10 $34.72 · P90 $167.71
  5. Rank 05 Paradox Rift Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paradox Rift Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $64.63–$84.91 Chase expected value: $63.15 · Non-chase: $11.49 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 0.1% $283.82 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $66.13 P25 $43.24 · P75 $96.56 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $74.65 P10 $29.35 · P90 $131.46
  6. Rank 06 Journey Together Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Journey Together Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 333/333 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $40.85–$57.98 Chase expected value: $34.56 · Non-chase: $15.26 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 0.2% $192.52 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $42.16 P25 $30.46 · P75 $60.11 Expected value to price ratio: 25.9% $49.83 P10 $23.46 · P90 $84.73
  7. Rank 07 Paldea Evolved Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paldea Evolved Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 455/455 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $93.22–$141.25 Chase expected value: $102.56 · Non-chase: $12.77 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.1% $449.49 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $86.20 P25 $56.10 · P75 $131.53 Expected value to price ratio: 25.7% $115.33 P10 $37.12 · P90 $208.17
  8. Rank 08 Twilight Masquerade Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Twilight Masquerade Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 374/374 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $71.43–$103.09 Chase expected value: $72.42 · Non-chase: $13.64 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.8% $339.88 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $67.23 P25 $45.63 · P75 $100.10 Expected value to price ratio: 25.3% $86.06 P10 $33.61 · P90 $153.70
  9. Rank 09 Surging Sparks Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Surging Sparks Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 417/417 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $55.61–$80.75 Chase expected value: $54.46 · Non-chase: $14.02 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.4% $295.27 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $48.88 P25 $34.14 · P75 $71.34 Expected value to price ratio: 23.2% $68.48 P10 $25.11 · P90 $130.49
  10. Rank 10 Scarlet & Violet Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet Base Set Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 451/451 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $56.22–$75.65 Chase expected value: $53.60 · Non-chase: $12.36 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 0.0% $292.65 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $60.69 P25 $41.20 · P75 $83.97 Expected value to price ratio: 22.5% $65.97 P10 $28.51 · P90 $110.97
  11. Rank 11 Destined Rivals Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Destined Rivals Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 409/409 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $60.47–$101.62 Chase expected value: $65.52 · Non-chase: $11.58 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 0.9% $403.55 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $52.14 P25 $33.61 · P75 $85.14 Expected value to price ratio: 19.1% $77.09 P10 $23.79 · P90 $157.93
  12. Rank 12 Obsidian Flames Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Obsidian Flames Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 408/408 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $56.15–$74.55 Chase expected value: $48.28 · Non-chase: $15.68 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 0.0% $362.77 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $57.80 P25 $39.68 · P75 $80.90 Expected value to price ratio: 17.6% $63.96 P10 $28.30 · P90 $111.63
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

Your FoilFox account

Sign in

Sign in to open shop inventory or your collection. Guides stay open without an account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms and acknowledge the Privacy Policy. If you cannot legally accept the Terms where you live, a parent or guardian must own and manage the account. FoilFox accounts are not available to children under 13. Google shares your approved name, email address, and profile photo. FoilFox never sees your Google password or accesses Gmail or Drive.