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Pokémon · Sealed booster box reference

Pokémon booster box expected value (EV)

Compare Pokémon Scarlet & Violet booster box expected value (EV), median 36-pack box outcomes (P50), Special Illustration Rare pull odds, and reflective TCGplayer market prices across 12 modeled sets.

Planning estimate · 12 Pokémon sets · English · USD Browse Pokémon card values
Gastly Mega Greninja ex Mega Lucario ex

Top chase: Mega Greninja ex ($130.19) · Chaos Rising

PokémonClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$196.23Temporal Forces · 90% credible mean: $179.37–$214.13
Expected value to box price
63.6%Reflective market: $308.30 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 5.1%
Median box (P50)
$187.69P10–P90 spread: $123.95–$277.81 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$112.72 (57.4%)Non-chase floor: $83.51 · P(any chase): 100.0%
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Temporal Forces Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (63.6% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $187.69; clearing the $308.30 reflective market price (5.1% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($308.30) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $123.95 (unlucky P10) and $277.81 (lucky P90) 36 packs per booster box · 360/360 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $123.95–$277.81 Typical / Median (P50): $187.69 Expected value (Mean): $196.23 Box price: $308.30

Top chase cards in Temporal Forces

Click any card for price history & versions · Collector market prices
  1. Gastly Gastly en · Holo · #177 $91.28 ~1 in 7.9 boxes · EV $11.50/box
  2. Raging Bolt ex Raging Bolt ex en · Holo · #208 $62.17 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $2.60/box
  3. Sawsbuck Sawsbuck en · Holo · #166 $52.10 ~1 in 7.9 boxes · EV $6.56/box
  4. Gouging Fire ex Gouging Fire ex en · Holo · #204 $51.10 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $2.13/box
  5. Iron Crown ex Iron Crown ex en · Holo · #206 $50.84 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $2.12/box
  6. Gengar ex Gengar ex en · Holo · #193 $50.34 ~1 in 7.5 boxes · EV $6.75/box
  7. Morty's Conviction Morty's Conviction en · Holo · #211 $49.54 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $2.07/box
  8. Deerling Deerling en · Holo · #165 $42.85 ~1 in 7.9 boxes · EV $5.40/box
  9. Walking Wake ex Walking Wake ex en · Holo · #205 $39.82 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $1.66/box
  10. Litten Litten en · Holo · #167 $39.09 ~1 in 7.9 boxes · EV $4.93/box

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Collector value)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Temporal Forces Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Temporal Forces Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 360/360 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $179.37–$214.13 Chase expected value: $112.72 · Non-chase: $83.51 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.1% $308.30 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $187.69 P25 $150.95 · P75 $232.81 Expected value to price ratio: 63.6% $196.23 P10 $123.95 · P90 $277.81
  2. Rank 02 Chaos Rising Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution - Chaos Rising Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 198/198 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $95.77–$154.60 Chase expected value: $65.07 · Non-chase: $56.10 P(any chase): 99.7% · P(box ≥ cost): 26.1% $191.64 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $82.17 P25 $69.14 · P75 $193.09 Expected value to price ratio: 63.2% $121.17 P10 $64.35 · P90 $216.58
  3. Rank 03 Mega Evolution Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 310/310 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $138.14–$233.24 Chase expected value: $110.45 · Non-chase: $65.78 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 14.9% $308.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $116.22 P25 $90.27 · P75 $259.44 Expected value to price ratio: 57.2% $176.23 P10 $79.16 · P90 $327.56
  4. Rank 04 Journey Together Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Journey Together Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 333/333 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $104.02–$123.49 Chase expected value: $41.24 · Non-chase: $72.29 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.6% $201.94 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $104.54 P25 $91.30 · P75 $125.21 Expected value to price ratio: 56.2% $113.54 P10 $83.34 · P90 $154.19
  5. Rank 05 Stellar Crown Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Stellar Crown Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 300/300 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $138.37–$179.19 Chase expected value: $81.04 · Non-chase: $76.08 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.8% $309.57 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $132.84 P25 $105.82 · P75 $197.51 Expected value to price ratio: 50.8% $157.13 P10 $92.24 · P90 $245.82
  6. Rank 06 Paradox Rift Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paradox Rift Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $122.61–$147.90 Chase expected value: $73.84 · Non-chase: $61.69 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.3% $281.96 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $125.80 P25 $99.40 · P75 $160.67 Expected value to price ratio: 48.1% $135.52 P10 $83.13 · P90 $201.03
  7. Rank 07 Twilight Masquerade Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Twilight Masquerade Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 374/374 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $137.62–$173.45 Chase expected value: $85.52 · Non-chase: $69.31 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.2% $347.87 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $132.85 P25 $107.98 · P75 $171.45 Expected value to price ratio: 44.5% $154.83 P10 $93.68 · P90 $233.61
  8. Rank 08 Scarlet & Violet Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet Base Set Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 451/451 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $114.40–$137.36 Chase expected value: $62.92 · Non-chase: $62.85 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 0.0% $297.77 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $119.48 P25 $97.32 · P75 $146.30 Expected value to price ratio: 42.2% $125.77 P10 $82.84 · P90 $177.67
  9. Rank 09 Surging Sparks Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Surging Sparks Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 417/417 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.60–$138.71 Chase expected value: $65.10 · Non-chase: $58.53 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.7% $305.00 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $100.76 P25 $83.65 · P75 $126.62 Expected value to price ratio: 40.5% $123.63 P10 $73.23 · P90 $196.29
  10. Rank 10 Paldea Evolved Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paldea Evolved Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 455/455 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $156.07–$211.89 Chase expected value: $119.70 · Non-chase: $63.18 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.2% $472.37 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $149.38 P25 $114.04 · P75 $201.95 Expected value to price ratio: 38.7% $182.88 P10 $92.46 · P90 $290.80
  11. Rank 11 Destined Rivals Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Destined Rivals Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 409/409 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $132.81–$183.04 Chase expected value: $76.83 · Non-chase: $76.37 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.3% $413.74 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $124.02 P25 $102.94 · P75 $162.02 Expected value to price ratio: 37.0% $153.20 P10 $91.54 · P90 $246.12
  12. Rank 12 Obsidian Flames Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Obsidian Flames Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 408/408 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $123.69–$145.11 Chase expected value: $56.78 · Non-chase: $75.68 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 0.0% $375.78 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $125.42 P25 $104.76 · P75 $151.47 Expected value to price ratio: 35.2% $132.46 P10 $91.74 · P90 $186.36

Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Temporal Forces Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Illustration Rare Temporal Forces · 2.77 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $24.68Avg / pulled copy 2.77Copies / box 34.9% $68.41 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Common Temporal Forces · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.20Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 14.7% $28.94 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Uncommon Temporal Forces · 108.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.18Avg / pulled copy 108.00Copies / box 10.1% $19.83 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Special Illustration Rare Temporal Forces · 0.42 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $36.59Avg / pulled copy 0.42Copies / box 7.8% $15.28 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Ultra Rare Temporal Forces · 2.41 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $5.57Avg / pulled copy 2.41Copies / box 6.8% $13.44 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Ace Spec Rare Temporal Forces · 1.80 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $7.10Avg / pulled copy 1.80Copies / box 6.5% $12.78 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Reverse Holo Common Temporal Forces · 33.38 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.31Avg / pulled copy 33.38Copies / box 5.2% $10.21 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Reverse Holo Uncommon Temporal Forces · 23.36 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.32Avg / pulled copy 23.36Copies / box 3.8% $7.37 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Holo Rare Temporal Forces · 28.44 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.26Avg / pulled copy 28.44Copies / box 3.7% $7.30 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Double Rare Temporal Forces · 5.15 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.20Avg / pulled copy 5.15Copies / box 3.1% $6.18 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Reverse Holo Rare Temporal Forces · 10.01 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.37Avg / pulled copy 10.01Copies / box 1.9% $3.67 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Hyper Rare Temporal Forces · 0.26 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $10.84Avg / pulled copy 0.26Copies / box 1.4% $2.81 Expected tier contribution

Temporal Forces · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Gastly Temporal Forces · #177 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 7.9 boxes 1 : 7.9Box odds 0.1260Copies / box $91.28 $11.50 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $91.28
  2. Rank 02 Raging Bolt ex Temporal Forces · #208 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $62.17 $2.60 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $62.17
  3. Rank 03 Sawsbuck Temporal Forces · #166 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 7.9 boxes 1 : 7.9Box odds 0.1260Copies / box $52.10 $6.56 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $52.10
  4. Rank 04 Gouging Fire ex Temporal Forces · #204 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $51.10 $2.13 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $51.10
  5. Rank 05 Iron Crown ex Temporal Forces · #206 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $50.84 $2.12 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $50.84
  6. Rank 06 Gengar ex Temporal Forces · #193 en · Holo Ultra Rare · ~1 in 7.5 boxes 1 : 7.5Box odds 0.1340Copies / box $50.34 $6.75 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $50.34
  7. Rank 07 Morty's Conviction Temporal Forces · #211 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $49.54 $2.07 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $49.54
  8. Rank 08 Deerling Temporal Forces · #165 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 7.9 boxes 1 : 7.9Box odds 0.1260Copies / box $42.85 $5.40 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $42.85
  9. Rank 09 Walking Wake ex Temporal Forces · #205 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $39.82 $1.66 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $39.82
  10. Rank 10 Litten Temporal Forces · #167 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 7.9 boxes 1 : 7.9Box odds 0.1260Copies / box $39.09 $4.93 Expected value contribution per box Collector single-card value: $39.09
Advanced statistical breakdown for Temporal Forces (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Temporal Forces · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Ace Spec Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 20.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 3.820%–6.399% per pack 1.8000 expected copies per booster box 3.82%–6.40%90% credible / pack 1 : 20.0Packs 5.00% 1.80 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Illustration Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 13.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 6.179%–9.346% per pack 2.7720 expected copies per booster box 6.18%–9.35%90% credible / pack 1 : 13.0Packs 7.70% 2.77 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Special Illustration Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 86.2 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.626%–1.836% per pack 0.4176 expected copies per booster box 0.63%–1.84%90% credible / pack 1 : 86.2Packs 1.16% 0.42 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  4. 04 Hyper Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 138.9 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.302%–1.240% per pack 0.2592 expected copies per booster box 0.30%–1.24%90% credible / pack 1 : 138.9Packs 0.72% 0.26 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  5. 05 Ultra Rare Pack slot: Holo-plus · ~1 in 14.9 packs 90% Beta posterior: 5.322%–8.167% per pack 2.4120 expected copies per booster box 5.32%–8.17%90% credible / pack 1 : 14.9Packs 6.70% 2.41 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Temporal Forces · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Illustration Rare Slot: Reverse Slot 2 · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $163.73 · High expected value: $261.25 $163.73Low scenario $261.25High scenario ±$48.76 $97.52 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Illustration Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $162.04 · High expected value: $230.44 $162.04Low scenario $230.44High scenario ±$34.20 $68.40 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Common Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $182.02 · High expected value: $210.96 $182.02Low scenario $210.96High scenario ±$14.47 $28.94 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Pull rate: Special Illustration Rare Slot: Reverse Slot 2 · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $189.14 · High expected value: $210.42 $189.14Low scenario $210.42High scenario ±$10.64 $21.28 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Uncommon Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $186.57 · High expected value: $206.41 $186.57Low scenario $206.41High scenario ±$9.92 $19.84 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Pull rate: Ultra Rare Slot: Holo Plus · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $190.00 · High expected value: $208.71 $190.00Low scenario $208.71High scenario ±$9.36 $18.71 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Temporal Forces
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • The Pokémon Company International does not publish official pull rates; slot weights use TCGplayer multi-thousand-pack empirical opening benchmarks.
  • Card prices resolve from FoilFox printing-level TCGdex normal/holofoil/reverse observations when variant-level observations are absent.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Temporal Forces Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Temporal Forces packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Temporal Forces → · View Temporal Forces card values →

How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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