Sealed product reference · Pokémon · Disney Lorcana · Star Wars: Unlimited

Booster box expected value (EV)

Compare TCG booster box expected value (EV), median box outcomes (P50), 10th–90th percentile spreads, and Bayesian chase pull odds against reflective market prices across 40 modeled sets.

Planning estimate · 40 modeled sets · English · USD Browse individual card values

Featured chase cards · Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince ($3,361.41) · Fabled

Highest expected box value (EV)
$275.88Homeworlds (Carbonite Edition) · Median (P50): $244.09
Expected value to box price
149.4% leaderHomeworlds (Carbonite Edition) ($275.88 EV vs. $184.68 box) · 7/40 sets ≥ 100%
Median box (P50) range
$13.36–$244.09Across 40 modeled sets · Click any row below to inspect box spread
Chase share of expected value
51.5% avgCard values updated Oct 14, 2026 · Sealed market 2026-10-14

Top chase cards across all modeled sets

Select any set below for its box outcome distribution & pull-rate breakdown · Seller net prices
  1. Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Fabled · Holofoil $3,361.41 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $26.89/box
  2. Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Wilds Unknown · Holofoil $3,141.14 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $25.13/box
  3. Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess Fabled · Holofoil $2,674.64 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $21.40/box
  4. Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Attack of the Vine! · Holofoil $1,694.38 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $13.56/box
  5. Merida - Formidable Archer Merida - Formidable Archer Wilds Unknown · Holofoil $1,463.50 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $11.71/box
  6. Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends Attack of the Vine! · Holofoil $1,413.30 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $11.31/box
  7. Ariel - Ethereal Voice Ariel - Ethereal Voice Whispers in the Well · Holofoil $1,285.99 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $10.29/box
  8. Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard Fabled · Holofoil $1,223.87 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $17.00/box
  9. Yoda — My Ally is the Force Yoda — My Ally is the Force Legends of the Force (Carbonite Edition) · Foil (prestige, serialized) $1,101.53 ~1 in 230.0 boxes · EV $4.79/box
  10. Moana - Curious Explorer Moana - Curious Explorer Winterspell · Holofoil $1,079.56 ~1 in 212.3 boxes · EV $5.08/box

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

  1. Rank 01 Homeworlds (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Homeworlds Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 577/672 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $250.06–$309.22 Chase expected value: $46.61 · Non-chase: $229.27 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 86.9% $184.68 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $244.09 P25 $207.39 · P75 $308.95 Expected value to price ratio: 149.4% $275.88 P10 $178.70 · P90 $440.28
  2. Rank 02 Secrets of Power Star Wars: Unlimited - Secrets of Power Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 988/990 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $46.33–$58.97 Chase expected value: $6.26 · Non-chase: $45.27 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 75.0% $38.66 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $47.29 P25 $38.67 · P75 $58.23 Expected value to price ratio: 133.3% $51.53 P10 $32.13 · P90 $72.39
  3. Rank 03 Secrets of Power (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Secrets of Power Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 867/887 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $110.47–$141.11 Chase expected value: $33.25 · Non-chase: $90.85 P(any chase): 45.4% · P(box ≥ cost): 53.6% $104.30 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $107.41 P25 $85.91 · P75 $147.04 Expected value to price ratio: 119.0% $124.10 P10 $72.08 · P90 $196.12
  4. Rank 04 A Lawless Time (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - A Lawless Time Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 616/637 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $179.43–$240.94 Chase expected value: $64.59 · Non-chase: $147.97 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 48.5% $184.37 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $179.22 P25 $136.53 · P75 $263.50 Expected value to price ratio: 115.3% $212.56 P10 $111.48 · P90 $365.11
  5. Rank 05 Homeworlds Star Wars: Unlimited - Homeworlds Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 713/776 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $66.92–$100.41 Chase expected value: $23.44 · Non-chase: $55.53 P(any chase): 95.5% · P(box ≥ cost): 45.8% $70.98 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $68.06 P25 $54.10 · P75 $85.36 Expected value to price ratio: 111.3% $78.97 P10 $44.45 · P90 $107.48
  6. Rank 06 Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 624/661 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $196.58–$265.55 Chase expected value: $69.63 · Non-chase: $161.50 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 44.9% $212.25 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $194.11 P25 $143.17 · P75 $282.32 Expected value to price ratio: 108.9% $231.13 P10 $111.31 · P90 $403.93
  7. Rank 07 Ashes of the Empire Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 760/760 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $61.86–$97.26 Chase expected value: $24.02 · Non-chase: $52.87 P(any chase): 95.5% · P(box ≥ cost): 39.1% $72.56 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $61.83 P25 $45.04 · P75 $86.45 Expected value to price ratio: 106.0% $76.89 P10 $35.58 · P90 $125.36
  8. Rank 08 A Lawless Time Star Wars: Unlimited - A Lawless Time Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 760/760 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $54.83–$87.91 Chase expected value: $22.38 · Non-chase: $44.83 P(any chase): 95.5% · P(box ≥ cost): 31.2% $68.88 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $55.65 P25 $42.49 · P75 $73.20 Expected value to price ratio: 97.6% $67.21 P10 $33.33 · P90 $100.52
  9. Rank 09 Legends of the Force (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Legends of the Force Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 870/896 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $118.48–$160.93 Chase expected value: $38.35 · Non-chase: $96.15 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 29.0% $147.18 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $111.42 P25 $89.97 · P75 $154.00 Expected value to price ratio: 91.4% $134.50 P10 $75.73 · P90 $208.35
  10. Rank 10 Legends of the Force Star Wars: Unlimited - Legends of the Force Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 989/990 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.32–$42.38 Chase expected value: $7.14 · Non-chase: $27.84 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 21.8% $40.11 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $29.08 P25 $22.92 · P75 $37.27 Expected value to price ratio: 87.2% $34.97 P10 $19.26 · P90 $50.38
  11. Rank 11 Spark of Rebellion Star Wars: Unlimited - Spark of Rebellion Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 938/938 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $44.36–$63.47 Chase expected value: $11.92 · Non-chase: $40.96 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 15.9% $64.77 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $45.15 P25 $37.26 · P75 $54.47 Expected value to price ratio: 81.6% $52.87 P10 $31.22 · P90 $71.52
  12. Rank 12 Jump to Lightspeed Star Wars: Unlimited - Jump to Lightspeed Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 977/982 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $37.88–$51.92 Chase expected value: $6.50 · Non-chase: $37.09 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 16.5% $55.92 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $38.45 P25 $30.49 · P75 $48.33 Expected value to price ratio: 78.0% $43.59 P10 $25.05 · P90 $61.67
  13. Rank 13 Jump to Lightspeed (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Jump to Lightspeed Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 835/860 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $121.23–$153.59 Chase expected value: $30.70 · Non-chase: $104.02 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 19.8% $173.60 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $119.65 P25 $97.46 · P75 $153.44 Expected value to price ratio: 77.6% $134.72 P10 $82.72 · P90 $211.39
  14. Rank 14 Twilight of the Republic Star Wars: Unlimited - Twilight of the Republic Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 940/940 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $18.80–$38.26 Chase expected value: $8.47 · Non-chase: $16.18 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.2% $32.69 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $17.32 P25 $14.93 · P75 $20.81 Expected value to price ratio: 75.4% $24.65 P10 $13.27 · P90 $27.56
  15. Rank 15 Shadows of the Galaxy Star Wars: Unlimited - Shadows of the Galaxy Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 939/940 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $26.97–$44.92 Chase expected value: $8.83 · Non-chase: $24.94 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.7% $50.73 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $26.81 P25 $22.22 · P75 $32.93 Expected value to price ratio: 66.6% $33.77 P10 $18.80 · P90 $43.92
  16. Rank 16 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $101.58–$186.13 Chase expected value: $67.46 · Non-chase: $68.95 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.4% $238.68 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $87.37 P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54 Expected value to price ratio: 57.2% $136.41 P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
  17. Rank 17 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.40–$161.23 Chase expected value: $53.30 · Non-chase: $77.20 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.8% $256.98 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $93.50 P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11 Expected value to price ratio: 50.8% $130.51 P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
  18. Rank 18 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $50.74–$133.20 Chase expected value: $67.65 · Non-chase: $21.39 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2% $195.81 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $26.86 P25 $20.74 · P75 $43.30 Expected value to price ratio: 45.5% $89.05 P10 $16.99 · P90 $174.86
  19. Rank 19 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.23–$173.13 Chase expected value: $62.19 · Non-chase: $29.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $228.25 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $36.33 P25 $28.56 · P75 $56.08 Expected value to price ratio: 40.2% $91.81 P10 $22.51 · P90 $119.15
  20. Rank 20 Temporal Forces Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Temporal Forces Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 360/360 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $106.94–$136.71 Chase expected value: $96.44 · Non-chase: $24.75 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.1% $306.92 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $113.98 P25 $82.09 · P75 $153.00 Expected value to price ratio: 39.5% $121.20 P10 $58.88 · P90 $192.49
  21. Rank 21 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $33.38–$87.01 Chase expected value: $36.86 · Non-chase: $19.76 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 11.3% $154.69 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $20.52 P25 $15.93 · P75 $38.98 Expected value to price ratio: 36.6% $56.62 P10 $13.25 · P90 $165.52
  22. Rank 22 Chaos Rising Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution - Chaos Rising Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 198/198 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $43.96–$92.13 Chase expected value: $54.42 · Non-chase: $10.62 P(any chase): 99.7% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.1% $185.15 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $31.66 P25 $20.60 · P75 $126.64 Expected value to price ratio: 35.1% $65.05 P10 $16.56 · P90 $146.66
  23. Rank 23 Mega Evolution Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 310/310 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $72.72–$155.08 Chase expected value: $94.41 · Non-chase: $11.99 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.8% $303.71 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $54.87 P25 $32.07 · P75 $178.08 Expected value to price ratio: 35.0% $106.40 P10 $22.32 · P90 $236.85
  24. Rank 24 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.83–$66.14 Chase expected value: $27.28 · Non-chase: $19.20 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.4% $144.58 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $19.99 P25 $14.97 · P75 $42.72 Expected value to price ratio: 32.1% $46.48 P10 $12.44 · P90 $116.42
  25. Rank 25 Stellar Crown Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Stellar Crown Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 300/300 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $75.82–$110.51 Chase expected value: $68.36 · Non-chase: $22.32 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $299.66 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $69.64 P25 $46.24 · P75 $125.90 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $90.68 P10 $34.63 · P90 $167.98
  26. Rank 26 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $162.91–$353.67 Chase expected value: $162.34 · Non-chase: $87.42 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $826.00 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $123.27 P25 $86.58 · P75 $211.71 Expected value to price ratio: 30.2% $249.76 P10 $62.85 · P90 $506.86
  27. Rank 27 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $25.87–$47.23 Chase expected value: $15.15 · Non-chase: $20.03 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.3% $120.09 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $21.35 P25 $15.77 · P75 $38.85 Expected value to price ratio: 29.3% $35.18 P10 $12.87 · P90 $87.21
  28. Rank 28 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.51–$180.51 Chase expected value: $56.10 · Non-chase: $72.90 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $461.52 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $80.82 P25 $51.80 · P75 $154.75 Expected value to price ratio: 28.0% $129.01 P10 $36.10 · P90 $267.43
  29. Rank 29 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.60–$40.26 Chase expected value: $14.01 · Non-chase: $17.17 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $117.80 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $18.54 P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.11 Expected value to price ratio: 26.5% $31.19 P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.45
  30. Rank 30 Paradox Rift Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paradox Rift Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $64.63–$84.92 Chase expected value: $63.15 · Non-chase: $11.49 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $283.82 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $66.18 P25 $43.23 · P75 $96.59 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $74.65 P10 $29.34 · P90 $131.36
  31. Rank 31 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $32.70–$60.11 Chase expected value: $18.48 · Non-chase: $25.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $170.73 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $27.97 P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.9% $44.25 P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
  32. Rank 32 Journey Together Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Journey Together Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 333/333 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $40.79–$58.00 Chase expected value: $34.58 · Non-chase: $15.26 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $192.52 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $41.96 P25 $30.40 · P75 $60.14 Expected value to price ratio: 25.9% $49.84 P10 $23.48 · P90 $84.69
  33. Rank 33 Paldea Evolved Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paldea Evolved Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 455/455 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $93.26–$141.28 Chase expected value: $102.56 · Non-chase: $12.77 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $449.49 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $86.16 P25 $56.03 · P75 $131.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.7% $115.33 P10 $37.03 · P90 $208.99
  34. Rank 34 Twilight Masquerade Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Twilight Masquerade Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 374/374 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $71.47–$102.97 Chase expected value: $72.41 · Non-chase: $13.64 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $339.88 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $67.00 P25 $45.36 · P75 $100.18 Expected value to price ratio: 25.3% $86.06 P10 $33.41 · P90 $154.13
  35. Rank 35 Surging Sparks Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Surging Sparks Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 417/417 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $55.57–$80.77 Chase expected value: $54.46 · Non-chase: $14.02 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $295.27 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $48.77 P25 $33.99 · P75 $71.25 Expected value to price ratio: 23.2% $68.48 P10 $25.00 · P90 $130.94
  36. Rank 36 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.38–$46.03 Chase expected value: $18.31 · Non-chase: $14.24 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $142.65 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $15.21 P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42 Expected value to price ratio: 22.8% $32.56 P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
  37. Rank 37 Scarlet & Violet Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet Base Set Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 451/451 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $56.23–$75.61 Chase expected value: $53.61 · Non-chase: $12.36 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $292.65 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $60.78 P25 $41.22 · P75 $83.89 Expected value to price ratio: 22.5% $65.97 P10 $28.54 · P90 $111.05
  38. Rank 38 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $19.93–$40.99 Chase expected value: $14.65 · Non-chase: $13.65 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $127.81 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $13.36 P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.36 Expected value to price ratio: 22.1% $28.30 P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.40
  39. Rank 39 Destined Rivals Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Destined Rivals Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 409/409 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $60.38–$101.58 Chase expected value: $65.50 · Non-chase: $11.58 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $403.55 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $51.93 P25 $33.49 · P75 $84.45 Expected value to price ratio: 19.1% $77.08 P10 $23.71 · P90 $157.61
  40. Rank 40 Obsidian Flames Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Obsidian Flames Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 408/408 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $56.23–$74.71 Chase expected value: $48.29 · Non-chase: $15.68 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $362.77 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $57.86 P25 $39.82 · P75 $80.41 Expected value to price ratio: 17.6% $63.96 P10 $28.41 · P90 $111.04
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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