Sealed product reference · Pokémon · Disney Lorcana · Star Wars: Unlimited
Booster box expected value (EV)
Compare TCG booster box expected value (EV), median box outcomes (P50), 10th–90th percentile spreads, and Bayesian chase pull odds against reflective market prices across 40 modeled sets.
- Highest expected box value (EV)
- $275.88Homeworlds (Carbonite Edition) · Median (P50): $244.09
- Expected value to box price
- 149.4% leaderHomeworlds (Carbonite Edition) ($275.88 EV vs. $184.68 box) · 7/40 sets ≥ 100%
- Median box (P50) range
- $13.36–$244.09Across 40 modeled sets · Click any row below to inspect box spread
- Chase share of expected value
- 51.5% avgCard values updated Oct 14, 2026 · Sealed market 2026-10-14
Top chase cards across all modeled sets
Select any set below for its box outcome distribution & pull-rate breakdown · Seller net prices-
Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince
Fabled · Holofoil
$3,361.41
~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $26.89/box
-
Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger
Wilds Unknown · Holofoil
$3,141.14
~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $25.13/box
-
Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess
Fabled · Holofoil
$2,674.64
~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $21.40/box
-
Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun
Attack of the Vine! · Holofoil
$1,694.38
~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $13.56/box
-
Merida - Formidable Archer
Wilds Unknown · Holofoil
$1,463.50
~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $11.71/box
-
Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends
Attack of the Vine! · Holofoil
$1,413.30
~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $11.31/box
-
Ariel - Ethereal Voice
Whispers in the Well · Holofoil
$1,285.99
~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $10.29/box
-
Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard
Fabled · Holofoil
$1,223.87
~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $17.00/box
-
Yoda — My Ally is the Force
Legends of the Force (Carbonite Edition) · Foil (prestige, serialized)
$1,101.53
~1 in 230.0 boxes · EV $4.79/box
-
Moana - Curious Explorer
Winterspell · Holofoil
$1,079.56
~1 in 212.3 boxes · EV $5.08/box
Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)
-
Rank 01
Homeworlds (Carbonite Edition)
Star Wars: Unlimited - Homeworlds Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 577/672 variants priced
$184.68
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$244.09
P25 $207.39 · P75 $308.95
Expected value to price ratio: 149.4%
$275.88
P10 $178.70 · P90 $440.28
-
Rank 02
Secrets of Power
Star Wars: Unlimited - Secrets of Power Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 988/990 variants priced
$38.66
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$47.29
P25 $38.67 · P75 $58.23
Expected value to price ratio: 133.3%
$51.53
P10 $32.13 · P90 $72.39
-
Rank 03
Secrets of Power (Carbonite Edition)
Star Wars: Unlimited - Secrets of Power Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 867/887 variants priced
$104.30
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$107.41
P25 $85.91 · P75 $147.04
Expected value to price ratio: 119.0%
$124.10
P10 $72.08 · P90 $196.12
-
Rank 04
A Lawless Time (Carbonite Edition)
Star Wars: Unlimited - A Lawless Time Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 616/637 variants priced
$184.37
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$179.22
P25 $136.53 · P75 $263.50
Expected value to price ratio: 115.3%
$212.56
P10 $111.48 · P90 $365.11
-
Rank 05
Homeworlds
Star Wars: Unlimited - Homeworlds Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 713/776 variants priced
$70.98
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$68.06
P25 $54.10 · P75 $85.36
Expected value to price ratio: 111.3%
$78.97
P10 $44.45 · P90 $107.48
-
Rank 06
Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition)
Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 624/661 variants priced
$212.25
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$194.11
P25 $143.17 · P75 $282.32
Expected value to price ratio: 108.9%
$231.13
P10 $111.31 · P90 $403.93
-
Rank 07
Ashes of the Empire
Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 760/760 variants priced
$72.56
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$61.83
P25 $45.04 · P75 $86.45
Expected value to price ratio: 106.0%
$76.89
P10 $35.58 · P90 $125.36
-
Rank 08
A Lawless Time
Star Wars: Unlimited - A Lawless Time Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 760/760 variants priced
$68.88
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$55.65
P25 $42.49 · P75 $73.20
Expected value to price ratio: 97.6%
$67.21
P10 $33.33 · P90 $100.52
-
Rank 09
Legends of the Force (Carbonite Edition)
Star Wars: Unlimited - Legends of the Force Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 870/896 variants priced
$147.18
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$111.42
P25 $89.97 · P75 $154.00
Expected value to price ratio: 91.4%
$134.50
P10 $75.73 · P90 $208.35
-
Rank 10
Legends of the Force
Star Wars: Unlimited - Legends of the Force Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 989/990 variants priced
$40.11
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$29.08
P25 $22.92 · P75 $37.27
Expected value to price ratio: 87.2%
$34.97
P10 $19.26 · P90 $50.38
-
Rank 11
Spark of Rebellion
Star Wars: Unlimited - Spark of Rebellion Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 938/938 variants priced
$64.77
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$45.15
P25 $37.26 · P75 $54.47
Expected value to price ratio: 81.6%
$52.87
P10 $31.22 · P90 $71.52
-
Rank 12
Jump to Lightspeed
Star Wars: Unlimited - Jump to Lightspeed Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 977/982 variants priced
$55.92
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$38.45
P25 $30.49 · P75 $48.33
Expected value to price ratio: 78.0%
$43.59
P10 $25.05 · P90 $61.67
-
Rank 13
Jump to Lightspeed (Carbonite Edition)
Star Wars: Unlimited - Jump to Lightspeed Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 835/860 variants priced
$173.60
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$119.65
P25 $97.46 · P75 $153.44
Expected value to price ratio: 77.6%
$134.72
P10 $82.72 · P90 $211.39
-
Rank 14
Twilight of the Republic
Star Wars: Unlimited - Twilight of the Republic Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 940/940 variants priced
$32.69
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$17.32
P25 $14.93 · P75 $20.81
Expected value to price ratio: 75.4%
$24.65
P10 $13.27 · P90 $27.56
-
Rank 15
Shadows of the Galaxy
Star Wars: Unlimited - Shadows of the Galaxy Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 939/940 variants priced
$50.73
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$26.81
P25 $22.22 · P75 $32.93
Expected value to price ratio: 66.6%
$33.77
P10 $18.80 · P90 $43.92
-
Rank 16
Whispers in the Well
Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced
$238.68
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$87.37
P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54
Expected value to price ratio: 57.2%
$136.41
P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
-
Rank 17
Winterspell
Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced
$256.98
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$93.50
P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11
Expected value to price ratio: 50.8%
$130.51
P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
-
Rank 18
Attack of the Vine!
Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced
$195.81
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$26.86
P25 $20.74 · P75 $43.30
Expected value to price ratio: 45.5%
$89.05
P10 $16.99 · P90 $174.86
-
Rank 19
Wilds Unknown
Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced
$228.25
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$36.33
P25 $28.56 · P75 $56.08
Expected value to price ratio: 40.2%
$91.81
P10 $22.51 · P90 $119.15
-
Rank 20
Temporal Forces
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Temporal Forces Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 360/360 variants priced
$306.92
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$113.98
P25 $82.09 · P75 $153.00
Expected value to price ratio: 39.5%
$121.20
P10 $58.88 · P90 $192.49
-
Rank 21
Reign of Jafar
Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced
$154.69
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$20.52
P25 $15.93 · P75 $38.98
Expected value to price ratio: 36.6%
$56.62
P10 $13.25 · P90 $165.52
-
Rank 22
Chaos Rising
Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution - Chaos Rising Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 198/198 variants priced
$185.15
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$31.66
P25 $20.60 · P75 $126.64
Expected value to price ratio: 35.1%
$65.05
P10 $16.56 · P90 $146.66
-
Rank 23
Mega Evolution
Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 310/310 variants priced
$303.71
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$54.87
P25 $32.07 · P75 $178.08
Expected value to price ratio: 35.0%
$106.40
P10 $22.32 · P90 $236.85
-
Rank 24
Archazia's Island
Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced
$144.58
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$19.99
P25 $14.97 · P75 $42.72
Expected value to price ratio: 32.1%
$46.48
P10 $12.44 · P90 $116.42
-
Rank 25
Stellar Crown
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Stellar Crown Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 300/300 variants priced
$299.66
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$69.64
P25 $46.24 · P75 $125.90
Expected value to price ratio: 30.3%
$90.68
P10 $34.63 · P90 $167.98
-
Rank 26
Fabled
Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced
$826.00
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$123.27
P25 $86.58 · P75 $211.71
Expected value to price ratio: 30.2%
$249.76
P10 $62.85 · P90 $506.86
-
Rank 27
Ursula's Return
Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced
$120.09
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$21.35
P25 $15.77 · P75 $38.85
Expected value to price ratio: 29.3%
$35.18
P10 $12.87 · P90 $87.21
-
Rank 28
The First Chapter
Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced
$461.52
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$80.82
P25 $51.80 · P75 $154.75
Expected value to price ratio: 28.0%
$129.01
P10 $36.10 · P90 $267.43
-
Rank 29
Azurite Sea
Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced
$117.80
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$18.54
P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.11
Expected value to price ratio: 26.5%
$31.19
P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.45
-
Rank 30
Paradox Rift
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paradox Rift Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced
$283.82
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$66.18
P25 $43.23 · P75 $96.59
Expected value to price ratio: 26.3%
$74.65
P10 $29.34 · P90 $131.36
-
Rank 31
Rise of the Floodborn
Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced
$170.73
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$27.97
P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78
Expected value to price ratio: 25.9%
$44.25
P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
-
Rank 32
Journey Together
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Journey Together Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 333/333 variants priced
$192.52
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$41.96
P25 $30.40 · P75 $60.14
Expected value to price ratio: 25.9%
$49.84
P10 $23.48 · P90 $84.69
-
Rank 33
Paldea Evolved
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paldea Evolved Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 455/455 variants priced
$449.49
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$86.16
P25 $56.03 · P75 $131.78
Expected value to price ratio: 25.7%
$115.33
P10 $37.03 · P90 $208.99
-
Rank 34
Twilight Masquerade
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Twilight Masquerade Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 374/374 variants priced
$339.88
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$67.00
P25 $45.36 · P75 $100.18
Expected value to price ratio: 25.3%
$86.06
P10 $33.41 · P90 $154.13
-
Rank 35
Surging Sparks
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Surging Sparks Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 417/417 variants priced
$295.27
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$48.77
P25 $33.99 · P75 $71.25
Expected value to price ratio: 23.2%
$68.48
P10 $25.00 · P90 $130.94
-
Rank 36
Shimmering Skies
Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced
$142.65
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$15.21
P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42
Expected value to price ratio: 22.8%
$32.56
P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
-
Rank 37
Scarlet & Violet
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet Base Set Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 451/451 variants priced
$292.65
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$60.78
P25 $41.22 · P75 $83.89
Expected value to price ratio: 22.5%
$65.97
P10 $28.54 · P90 $111.05
-
Rank 38
Into the Inklands
Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced
$127.81
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$13.36
P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.36
Expected value to price ratio: 22.1%
$28.30
P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.40
-
Rank 39
Destined Rivals
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Destined Rivals Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 409/409 variants priced
$403.55
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$51.93
P25 $33.49 · P75 $84.45
Expected value to price ratio: 19.1%
$77.08
P10 $23.71 · P90 $157.61
-
Rank 40
Obsidian Flames
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Obsidian Flames Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 408/408 variants priced
$362.77
TCGplayer · 2026-10-14
$57.86
P25 $39.82 · P75 $80.41
Expected value to price ratio: 17.6%
$63.96
P10 $28.41 · P90 $111.04
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)
Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.
A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.
Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.
Collector vs. Seller valuation personas
Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.
All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.