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Disney Lorcana · Sealed booster box reference

Disney Lorcana booster box expected value (EV)

Compare Disney Lorcana booster box expected value (EV), median 24-pack box outcomes (P50), Enchanted & Iconic chase pull odds, and reflective TCGplayer market prices across 13 modeled sets.

Planning estimate · 13 Disney Lorcana sets · English · USD Browse Disney Lorcana card values
Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess

Featured chase cards · Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger ($3,141.14) · Wilds Unknown

Disney LorcanaSeller net personaClear all
Highest expected box value (EV)
$249.76Fabled · Median (P50): $123.27
Expected value to box price
57.2% leaderWhispers in the Well ($136.41 EV vs. $238.68 box) · 0/13 sets ≥ 100%
Median box (P50) range
$13.36–$123.27Across 13 Disney Lorcana sets · Click any row below to inspect box spread
Chase share of expected value
54.2% avgCard values updated Oct 13, 2026 · Sealed market 2026-10-14

Top chase cards across Disney Lorcana sets

Select any set below for its box outcome distribution & pull-rate breakdown · Seller net prices
  1. Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Fabled · Holofoil $3,361.41 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $26.89/box
  2. Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Wilds Unknown · Holofoil $3,141.14 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $25.13/box
  3. Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess Fabled · Holofoil $2,674.64 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $21.40/box
  4. Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Attack of the Vine! · Holofoil $1,694.38 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $13.56/box
  5. Merida - Formidable Archer Merida - Formidable Archer Wilds Unknown · Holofoil $1,463.50 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $11.71/box
  6. Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends Attack of the Vine! · Holofoil $1,413.30 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $11.31/box
  7. Ariel - Ethereal Voice Ariel - Ethereal Voice Whispers in the Well · Holofoil $1,285.99 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $10.29/box
  8. Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard Fabled · Holofoil $1,223.87 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $17.00/box
  9. Moana - Curious Explorer Moana - Curious Explorer Winterspell · Holofoil $1,079.56 ~1 in 212.3 boxes · EV $5.08/box
  10. Hades - Looking for a Deal Hades - Looking for a Deal Whispers in the Well · Holofoil $925.19 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $7.40/box

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Set artwork Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $101.58–$186.13 Chase expected value: $67.46 · Non-chase: $68.95 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.4% $238.68 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $87.37 P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54 Expected value to price ratio: 57.2% $136.41 P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
  2. Rank 02 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.40–$161.23 Chase expected value: $53.30 · Non-chase: $77.20 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.8% $256.98 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $93.50 P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11 Expected value to price ratio: 50.8% $130.51 P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
  3. Rank 03 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $50.74–$133.20 Chase expected value: $67.65 · Non-chase: $21.39 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2% $195.81 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $26.86 P25 $20.74 · P75 $43.30 Expected value to price ratio: 45.5% $89.05 P10 $16.99 · P90 $174.86
  4. Rank 04 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.23–$173.13 Chase expected value: $62.19 · Non-chase: $29.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $228.25 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $36.33 P25 $28.56 · P75 $56.08 Expected value to price ratio: 40.2% $91.81 P10 $22.51 · P90 $119.15
  5. Rank 05 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $33.38–$87.01 Chase expected value: $36.86 · Non-chase: $19.76 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 11.3% $154.69 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $20.52 P25 $15.93 · P75 $38.98 Expected value to price ratio: 36.6% $56.62 P10 $13.25 · P90 $165.52
  6. Rank 06 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.83–$66.14 Chase expected value: $27.28 · Non-chase: $19.20 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.4% $144.58 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $19.99 P25 $14.97 · P75 $42.72 Expected value to price ratio: 32.1% $46.48 P10 $12.44 · P90 $116.42
  7. Rank 07 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $162.91–$353.67 Chase expected value: $162.34 · Non-chase: $87.42 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $826.00 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $123.27 P25 $86.58 · P75 $211.71 Expected value to price ratio: 30.2% $249.76 P10 $62.85 · P90 $506.86
  8. Rank 08 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $25.87–$47.23 Chase expected value: $15.15 · Non-chase: $20.03 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.3% $120.09 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $21.35 P25 $15.77 · P75 $38.85 Expected value to price ratio: 29.3% $35.18 P10 $12.87 · P90 $87.21
  9. Rank 09 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.51–$180.51 Chase expected value: $56.10 · Non-chase: $72.90 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $461.52 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $80.82 P25 $51.80 · P75 $154.75 Expected value to price ratio: 28.0% $129.01 P10 $36.10 · P90 $267.43
  10. Rank 10 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.60–$40.26 Chase expected value: $14.01 · Non-chase: $17.17 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $117.80 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $18.54 P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.11 Expected value to price ratio: 26.5% $31.19 P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.45
  11. Rank 11 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $32.70–$60.11 Chase expected value: $18.48 · Non-chase: $25.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $170.73 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $27.97 P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.9% $44.25 P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
  12. Rank 12 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.38–$46.03 Chase expected value: $18.31 · Non-chase: $14.24 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $142.65 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $15.21 P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42 Expected value to price ratio: 22.8% $32.56 P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
  13. Rank 13 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $19.93–$40.99 Chase expected value: $14.65 · Non-chase: $13.65 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $127.81 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $13.36 P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.36 Expected value to price ratio: 22.1% $28.30 P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.40
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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