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Disney Lorcana · Wilds Unknown · 24 packs per booster box

Wilds Unknown Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box (24 packs) vs. its $237.32 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 24 packs · 446/446 printings priced · USD Browse Wilds Unknown card values
Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Merida - Formidable Archer Alien - True Believer

Top chase: Merida - Formidable Archer ($1,463.50) · Wilds Unknown

Wilds UnknownSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$91.98Wilds Unknown · 90% credible mean: $49.32–$173.45
Expected value to box price
38.8%Reflective market: $237.32 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 4.6%
Median box (P50)
$36.40P10–P90 spread: $22.55–$119.37 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$62.36 (67.8%)Non-chase floor: $29.62 · P(any chase): 84.1%
Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (38.8% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $36.40; clearing the $237.32 reflective market price (4.6% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($237.32) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $22.55 (unlucky P10) and $119.37 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $22.55–$119.37 Typical / Median (P50): $36.40 Expected value (Mean): $91.98 Box price: $237.32

Top chase cards in Wilds Unknown

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Holofoil · #241 $3,141.14 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $25.13/box
  2. Merida - Formidable Archer Merida - Formidable Archer Holofoil · #242 $1,463.50 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $11.71/box
  3. Alien - True Believer Alien - True Believer Holofoil · #229 $261.42 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $3.63/box
  4. You've Got a Friend in Me You've Got a Friend in Me Holofoil · #225 $234.95 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $3.26/box
  5. Jessie - Lively Cowgirl Jessie - Lively Cowgirl Holofoil · #223 $135.21 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.88/box
  6. Mr. Incredible - Super Strong Mr. Incredible - Super Strong Holofoil · #234 $92.75 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.29/box
  7. Syndrome - Out for Revenge Syndrome - Out for Revenge Holofoil · #238 $92.66 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.29/box
  8. Milo Thatch - Getting His Hands Dirty Milo Thatch - Getting His Hands Dirty Holofoil · #230 $83.12 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.15/box
  9. Jack-Jack Parr - Incredible Potential Jack-Jack Parr - Incredible Potential Holofoil · #232 $78.58 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.09/box
  10. Touch the Sky Touch the Sky Holofoil · #240 $73.58 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.02/box

Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Iconic Wilds Unknown · 0.0160 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $2,302.50Avg / pulled copy 0.016Copies / box 40.1% $36.84 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Enchanted Wilds Unknown · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $88.56Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 24.1% $22.14 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Super Rare Wilds Unknown · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.82Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 10.1% $9.32 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Common Wilds Unknown · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 4.7% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Epic Wilds Unknown · 1.50 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $2.25Avg / pulled copy 1.50Copies / box 3.7% $3.38 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Legendary Wilds Unknown · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.85Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 3.7% $3.37 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Cold Foil Legendary Wilds Unknown · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $4.03Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 3.3% $3.02 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Cold Foil Super Rare Wilds Unknown · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $2.08Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 2.8% $2.55 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Uncommon Wilds Unknown · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 2.3% $2.16 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Uncommon Wilds Unknown · 5.35 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.34Avg / pulled copy 5.35Copies / box 2.0% $1.83 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Rare Wilds Unknown · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.05Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 1.9% $1.73 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Cold Foil Rare Wilds Unknown · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.25Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 0.9% $0.83 Expected tier contribution
  13. Tier 13 Cold Foil Common Wilds Unknown · 11.57 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.04Avg / pulled copy 11.57Copies / box 0.5% $0.49 Expected tier contribution

Wilds Unknown · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Buzz Lightyear - Jungle Ranger Wilds Unknown · #241 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $3,141.14 $25.13 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $3,141.14
  2. Rank 02 Merida - Formidable Archer Wilds Unknown · #242 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $1,463.50 $11.71 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $1,463.50
  3. Rank 03 Alien - True Believer Wilds Unknown · #229 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $261.42 $3.63 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $261.42
  4. Rank 04 You've Got a Friend in Me Wilds Unknown · #225 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $234.95 $3.26 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $234.95
  5. Rank 05 Jessie - Lively Cowgirl Wilds Unknown · #223 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $135.21 $1.88 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $135.21
  6. Rank 06 Mr. Incredible - Super Strong Wilds Unknown · #234 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $92.75 $1.29 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $92.75
  7. Rank 07 Syndrome - Out for Revenge Wilds Unknown · #238 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $92.66 $1.29 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $92.66
  8. Rank 08 Milo Thatch - Getting His Hands Dirty Wilds Unknown · #230 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $83.12 $1.15 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $83.12
  9. Rank 09 Jack-Jack Parr - Incredible Potential Wilds Unknown · #232 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $78.58 $1.09 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $78.58
  10. Rank 10 Touch the Sky Wilds Unknown · #240 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $73.58 $1.02 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $73.58
Advanced statistical breakdown for Wilds Unknown (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Wilds Unknown · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Epic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 16.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 3.674%–9.388% per pack 1.5000 expected copies per booster box 3.67%–9.39%90% credible / pack 1 : 16.0Packs 6.25% 1.50 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.414%–1.909% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.91%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Iconic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 1500.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.004%–0.196% per pack 0.0160 expected copies per booster box 0.00%–0.20%90% credible / pack 1 : 1500.0Packs 0.07% 0.02 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Wilds Unknown · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Iconic Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $73.57 · High expected value: $128.79 $73.57Low scenario $128.79High scenario ±$27.61 $55.22 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Iconic Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $73.56 · High expected value: $110.40 $73.56Low scenario $110.40High scenario ±$18.42 $36.84 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $81.17 · High expected value: $113.61 $81.17Low scenario $113.61High scenario ±$16.22 $32.44 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $80.89 · High expected value: $103.07 $80.89Low scenario $103.07High scenario ±$11.09 $22.18 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Super Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $86.29 · High expected value: $97.34 $86.29Low scenario $97.34High scenario ±$5.53 $11.05 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $89.53 · High expected value: $94.72 $89.53Low scenario $94.72High scenario ±$2.60 $5.19 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Wilds Unknown
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Wilds Unknown Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Wilds Unknown packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Wilds Unknown → · View Wilds Unknown card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $101.58–$186.13 Chase expected value: $67.46 · Non-chase: $68.95 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.2% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $87.37 P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54 Expected value to price ratio: 57.3% $136.41 P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
  2. Rank 02 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.40–$161.23 Chase expected value: $53.30 · Non-chase: $77.20 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.1% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $93.50 P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11 Expected value to price ratio: 49.1% $130.51 P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
  3. Rank 03 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $50.77–$133.27 Chase expected value: $67.70 · Non-chase: $21.39 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $26.88 P25 $20.75 · P75 $43.32 Expected value to price ratio: 47.2% $89.10 P10 $17.00 · P90 $174.96
  4. Rank 04 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.32–$173.45 Chase expected value: $62.36 · Non-chase: $29.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.6% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.40 P25 $28.61 · P75 $56.18 Expected value to price ratio: 38.8% $91.98 P10 $22.55 · P90 $119.37
  5. Rank 05 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $33.36–$86.95 Chase expected value: $36.82 · Non-chase: $19.76 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $20.51 P25 $15.92 · P75 $38.95 Expected value to price ratio: 37.3% $56.58 P10 $13.24 · P90 $165.40
  6. Rank 06 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.78–$66.03 Chase expected value: $27.20 · Non-chase: $19.20 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.8% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $19.96 P25 $14.94 · P75 $42.65 Expected value to price ratio: 34.9% $46.40 P10 $12.42 · P90 $116.22
  7. Rank 07 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $162.94–$353.73 Chase expected value: $162.38 · Non-chase: $87.42 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.29 P25 $86.59 · P75 $211.74 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $249.80 P10 $62.86 · P90 $506.94
  8. Rank 08 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $25.86–$47.20 Chase expected value: $15.13 · Non-chase: $20.03 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $21.34 P25 $15.76 · P75 $38.83 Expected value to price ratio: 28.0% $35.16 P10 $12.86 · P90 $87.16
  9. Rank 09 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.61–$40.27 Chase expected value: $14.02 · Non-chase: $17.17 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.8% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $18.55 P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.12 Expected value to price ratio: 26.4% $31.20 P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.47
  10. Rank 10 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.50–$180.48 Chase expected value: $56.08 · Non-chase: $72.90 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.5% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $80.81 P25 $51.79 · P75 $154.73 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $128.99 P10 $36.09 · P90 $267.39
  11. Rank 11 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $32.70–$60.11 Chase expected value: $18.48 · Non-chase: $25.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.0% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $27.97 P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.8% $44.25 P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
  12. Rank 12 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.38–$46.03 Chase expected value: $18.31 · Non-chase: $14.24 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.8% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $15.21 P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42 Expected value to price ratio: 23.1% $32.56 P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
  13. Rank 13 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $19.94–$41.00 Chase expected value: $14.66 · Non-chase: $13.65 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.7% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $13.36 P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.37 Expected value to price ratio: 22.4% $28.31 P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.43
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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