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Disney Lorcana · Shimmering Skies · 24 packs per booster box

Shimmering Skies Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box (24 packs) vs. its $141.11 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 24 packs · 426/426 printings priced · USD Browse Shimmering Skies card values
Mufasa - Ruler of Pride Rock Snow White - Fair-Hearted Donald Duck - Pie Slinger

Top chase: Snow White - Fair-Hearted ($140.35) · Shimmering Skies

Shimmering SkiesSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$32.56Shimmering Skies · 90% credible mean: $23.38–$46.03
Expected value to box price
23.1%Reflective market: $141.11 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 3.8%
Median box (P50)
$15.21P10–P90 spread: $10.29–$80.01 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$18.31 (56.2%)Non-chase floor: $14.24 · P(any chase): 23.6%
Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (23.1% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $15.21; clearing the $141.11 reflective market price (3.8% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($141.11) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $10.29 (unlucky P10) and $80.01 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $10.29–$80.01 Typical / Median (P50): $15.21 Expected value (Mean): $32.56 Box price: $141.11

Top chase cards in Shimmering Skies

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Mufasa - Ruler of Pride Rock Mufasa - Ruler of Pride Rock Holofoil · #217 $295.85 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $4.11/box
  2. Snow White - Fair-Hearted Snow White - Fair-Hearted Holofoil · #220 $140.35 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.95/box
  3. Donald Duck - Pie Slinger Donald Duck - Pie Slinger Holofoil · #214 $99.89 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.39/box
  4. Scar - Vengeful Lion Scar - Vengeful Lion Holofoil · #212 $97.24 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.35/box
  5. Robin Hood - Sharpshooter Robin Hood - Sharpshooter Holofoil · #215 $84.39 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.17/box
  6. Olaf - Happy Passenger Olaf - Happy Passenger Holofoil · #209 $84.17 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.17/box
  7. You're Welcome You're Welcome Holofoil · #213 $65.62 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.91/box
  8. Arthur - King Victorious Arthur - King Victorious Holofoil · #221 $60.23 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.84/box
  9. Vanellope von Schweetz - Sugar Rush Princess Vanellope von Schweetz - Sugar Rush Princess Holofoil · #206 $56.59 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.79/box
  10. Archimedes - Electrified Owl Archimedes - Electrified Owl Holofoil · #208 $53.91 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.75/box

Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Shimmering Skies · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $73.24Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 56.2% $18.31 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Common Shimmering Skies · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 13.3% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Cold Foil Legendary Shimmering Skies · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $2.95Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 6.8% $2.21 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Uncommon Shimmering Skies · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 6.6% $2.16 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Legendary Shimmering Skies · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.45Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 5.5% $1.79 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Rare Shimmering Skies · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 3.0% $0.98 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Cold Foil Rare Shimmering Skies · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.23Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 2.4% $0.78 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Cold Foil Uncommon Shimmering Skies · 5.83 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.13Avg / pulled copy 5.83Copies / box 2.4% $0.77 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Cold Foil Super Rare Shimmering Skies · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.42Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 1.6% $0.52 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Common Shimmering Skies · 12.61 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 12.61Copies / box 1.2% $0.38 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Super Rare Shimmering Skies · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 1.0% $0.34 Expected tier contribution

Shimmering Skies · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Mufasa - Ruler of Pride Rock Shimmering Skies · #217 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $295.85 $4.11 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $295.85
  2. Rank 02 Snow White - Fair-Hearted Shimmering Skies · #220 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $140.35 $1.95 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $140.35
  3. Rank 03 Donald Duck - Pie Slinger Shimmering Skies · #214 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $99.89 $1.39 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $99.89
  4. Rank 04 Scar - Vengeful Lion Shimmering Skies · #212 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $97.24 $1.35 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $97.24
  5. Rank 05 Robin Hood - Sharpshooter Shimmering Skies · #215 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $84.39 $1.17 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $84.39
  6. Rank 06 Olaf - Happy Passenger Shimmering Skies · #209 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $84.17 $1.17 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $84.17
  7. Rank 07 You're Welcome Shimmering Skies · #213 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $65.62 $0.91 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $65.62
  8. Rank 08 Arthur - King Victorious Shimmering Skies · #221 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $60.23 $0.84 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $60.23
  9. Rank 09 Vanellope von Schweetz - Sugar Rush Princess Shimmering Skies · #206 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $56.59 $0.79 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $56.59
  10. Rank 10 Archimedes - Electrified Owl Shimmering Skies · #208 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $53.91 $0.75 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $53.91
Advanced statistical breakdown for Shimmering Skies (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Shimmering Skies · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.406%–1.921% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.92%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Shimmering Skies · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $23.43 · High expected value: $50.82 $23.43Low scenario $50.82High scenario ±$13.70 $27.39 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $23.38 · High expected value: $41.73 $23.38Low scenario $41.73High scenario ±$9.18 $18.35 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $31.46 · High expected value: $35.62 $31.46Low scenario $35.62High scenario ±$2.08 $4.16 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Cold Foil Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $31.31 · High expected value: $33.72 $31.31Low scenario $33.72High scenario ±$1.21 $2.41 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Cold Foil Uncommon Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $32.07 · High expected value: $33.01 $32.07Low scenario $33.01High scenario ±$0.47 $0.94 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Cold Foil Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $32.11 · High expected value: $33.04 $32.11Low scenario $33.04High scenario ±$0.47 $0.93 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Shimmering Skies
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Shimmering Skies Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Shimmering Skies packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Shimmering Skies → · View Shimmering Skies card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $101.58–$186.13 Chase expected value: $67.46 · Non-chase: $68.95 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.2% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $87.37 P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54 Expected value to price ratio: 57.3% $136.41 P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
  2. Rank 02 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.40–$161.23 Chase expected value: $53.30 · Non-chase: $77.20 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.1% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $93.50 P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11 Expected value to price ratio: 49.1% $130.51 P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
  3. Rank 03 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $50.77–$133.27 Chase expected value: $67.70 · Non-chase: $21.39 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $26.88 P25 $20.75 · P75 $43.32 Expected value to price ratio: 47.2% $89.10 P10 $17.00 · P90 $174.96
  4. Rank 04 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.32–$173.45 Chase expected value: $62.36 · Non-chase: $29.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.6% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.40 P25 $28.61 · P75 $56.18 Expected value to price ratio: 38.8% $91.98 P10 $22.55 · P90 $119.37
  5. Rank 05 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $33.36–$86.95 Chase expected value: $36.82 · Non-chase: $19.76 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $20.51 P25 $15.92 · P75 $38.95 Expected value to price ratio: 37.3% $56.58 P10 $13.24 · P90 $165.40
  6. Rank 06 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.78–$66.03 Chase expected value: $27.20 · Non-chase: $19.20 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.8% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $19.96 P25 $14.94 · P75 $42.65 Expected value to price ratio: 34.9% $46.40 P10 $12.42 · P90 $116.22
  7. Rank 07 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $162.94–$353.73 Chase expected value: $162.38 · Non-chase: $87.42 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.29 P25 $86.59 · P75 $211.74 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $249.80 P10 $62.86 · P90 $506.94
  8. Rank 08 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $25.86–$47.20 Chase expected value: $15.13 · Non-chase: $20.03 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $21.34 P25 $15.76 · P75 $38.83 Expected value to price ratio: 28.0% $35.16 P10 $12.86 · P90 $87.16
  9. Rank 09 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.61–$40.27 Chase expected value: $14.02 · Non-chase: $17.17 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.8% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $18.55 P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.12 Expected value to price ratio: 26.4% $31.20 P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.47
  10. Rank 10 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.50–$180.48 Chase expected value: $56.08 · Non-chase: $72.90 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.5% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $80.81 P25 $51.79 · P75 $154.73 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $128.99 P10 $36.09 · P90 $267.39
  11. Rank 11 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $32.70–$60.11 Chase expected value: $18.48 · Non-chase: $25.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.0% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $27.97 P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.8% $44.25 P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
  12. Rank 12 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.38–$46.03 Chase expected value: $18.31 · Non-chase: $14.24 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.8% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $15.21 P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42 Expected value to price ratio: 23.1% $32.56 P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
  13. Rank 13 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $19.94–$41.00 Chase expected value: $14.66 · Non-chase: $13.65 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.7% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $13.36 P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.37 Expected value to price ratio: 22.4% $28.31 P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.43
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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