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Disney Lorcana · Fabled · 24 packs per booster box

Fabled Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box (24 packs) vs. its $823.83 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 24 packs · 448/448 printings priced · USD Browse Fabled card values
Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard

Top chase: Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess ($2,674.64) · Fabled

FabledSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$249.80Fabled · 90% credible mean: $162.94–$353.73
Expected value to box price
30.3%Reflective market: $823.83 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 4.0%
Median box (P50)
$123.29P10–P90 spread: $62.86–$506.94 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$162.38 (65.0%)Non-chase floor: $87.42 · P(any chase): 84.1%
Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (30.3% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $123.29; clearing the $823.83 reflective market price (4.0% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($823.83) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $62.86 (unlucky P10) and $506.94 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $62.86–$506.94 Typical / Median (P50): $123.29 Expected value (Mean): $249.80 Box price: $823.83

Top chase cards in Fabled

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Holofoil · #242 $3,361.41 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $26.89/box
  2. Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess Holofoil · #241 $2,674.64 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $21.40/box
  3. Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard Holofoil · #227 $1,223.87 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $17.00/box
  4. Ariel - Adventurous Collector Ariel - Adventurous Collector Holofoil · #232 $669.95 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $9.30/box
  5. Mickey Mouse - Steamboat Pilot Mickey Mouse - Steamboat Pilot Holofoil · #231 $608.58 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $8.45/box
  6. Circle of Life Circle of Life Holofoil · #225 $499.63 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $6.94/box
  7. I2I I2I Holofoil · #234 $496.05 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $6.89/box
  8. Dumbo - Ninth Wonder of the Universe Dumbo - Ninth Wonder of the Universe Holofoil · #228 $463.03 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $6.43/box
  9. Scar - Finally King Scar - Finally King Holofoil · #239 $316.27 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $4.39/box
  10. Belle - Accomplished Mystic Belle - Accomplished Mystic Holofoil · #226 $304.54 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $4.23/box

Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Fabled · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $367.60Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 36.8% $91.90 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Iconic Fabled · 0.0160 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $3,018.13Avg / pulled copy 0.016Copies / box 19.3% $48.29 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Legendary Fabled · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $10.46Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 16.7% $41.62 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Epic Fabled · 1.50 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $14.79Avg / pulled copy 1.50Copies / box 8.9% $22.19 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Cold Foil Legendary Fabled · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $20.39Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 6.1% $15.29 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Rare Fabled · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.22Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 2.8% $7.07 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Uncommon Fabled · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.08Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 2.3% $5.77 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Super Rare Fabled · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.48Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 2.2% $5.52 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Common Fabled · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 1.7% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Super Rare Fabled · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $2.70Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 1.3% $3.31 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Cold Foil Rare Fabled · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.78Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 1.0% $2.59 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Cold Foil Uncommon Fabled · 5.35 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.30Avg / pulled copy 5.35Copies / box 0.6% $1.58 Expected tier contribution
  13. Tier 13 Cold Foil Common Fabled · 11.57 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 11.57Copies / box 0.1% $0.35 Expected tier contribution

Fabled · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince Fabled · #242 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $3,361.41 $26.89 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $3,361.41
  2. Rank 02 Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess Fabled · #241 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $2,674.64 $21.40 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $2,674.64
  3. Rank 03 Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard Fabled · #227 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $1,223.87 $17.00 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $1,223.87
  4. Rank 04 Ariel - Adventurous Collector Fabled · #232 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $669.95 $9.30 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $669.95
  5. Rank 05 Mickey Mouse - Steamboat Pilot Fabled · #231 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $608.58 $8.45 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $608.58
  6. Rank 06 Circle of Life Fabled · #225 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $499.63 $6.94 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $499.63
  7. Rank 07 I2I Fabled · #234 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $496.05 $6.89 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $496.05
  8. Rank 08 Dumbo - Ninth Wonder of the Universe Fabled · #228 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $463.03 $6.43 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $463.03
  9. Rank 09 Scar - Finally King Fabled · #239 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $316.27 $4.39 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $316.27
  10. Rank 10 Belle - Accomplished Mystic Fabled · #226 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $304.54 $4.23 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $304.54
Advanced statistical breakdown for Fabled (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Fabled · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Epic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 16.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 3.674%–9.388% per pack 1.5000 expected copies per booster box 3.67%–9.39%90% credible / pack 1 : 16.0Packs 6.25% 1.50 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.414%–1.909% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.91%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Iconic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 1500.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.004%–0.196% per pack 0.0160 expected copies per booster box 0.00%–0.20%90% credible / pack 1 : 1500.0Packs 0.07% 0.02 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Fabled · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $204.34 · High expected value: $340.72 $204.34Low scenario $340.72High scenario ±$68.19 $136.38 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $203.83 · High expected value: $295.77 $203.83Low scenario $295.77High scenario ±$45.97 $91.94 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Pull rate: Iconic Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $225.70 · High expected value: $298.00 $225.70Low scenario $298.00High scenario ±$36.15 $72.30 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Iconic Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $225.65 · High expected value: $273.94 $225.65Low scenario $273.94High scenario ±$24.15 $48.29 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $228.27 · High expected value: $270.91 $228.27Low scenario $270.91High scenario ±$21.32 $42.64 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Epic Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $238.60 · High expected value: $261.01 $238.60Low scenario $261.01High scenario ±$11.21 $22.41 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Fabled
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Fabled Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Fabled packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Fabled → · View Fabled card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $101.58–$186.13 Chase expected value: $67.46 · Non-chase: $68.95 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.2% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $87.37 P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54 Expected value to price ratio: 57.3% $136.41 P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
  2. Rank 02 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.40–$161.23 Chase expected value: $53.30 · Non-chase: $77.20 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.1% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $93.50 P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11 Expected value to price ratio: 49.1% $130.51 P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
  3. Rank 03 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $50.77–$133.27 Chase expected value: $67.70 · Non-chase: $21.39 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $26.88 P25 $20.75 · P75 $43.32 Expected value to price ratio: 47.2% $89.10 P10 $17.00 · P90 $174.96
  4. Rank 04 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.32–$173.45 Chase expected value: $62.36 · Non-chase: $29.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.6% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.40 P25 $28.61 · P75 $56.18 Expected value to price ratio: 38.8% $91.98 P10 $22.55 · P90 $119.37
  5. Rank 05 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $33.36–$86.95 Chase expected value: $36.82 · Non-chase: $19.76 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $20.51 P25 $15.92 · P75 $38.95 Expected value to price ratio: 37.3% $56.58 P10 $13.24 · P90 $165.40
  6. Rank 06 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.78–$66.03 Chase expected value: $27.20 · Non-chase: $19.20 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.8% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $19.96 P25 $14.94 · P75 $42.65 Expected value to price ratio: 34.9% $46.40 P10 $12.42 · P90 $116.22
  7. Rank 07 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $162.94–$353.73 Chase expected value: $162.38 · Non-chase: $87.42 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.29 P25 $86.59 · P75 $211.74 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $249.80 P10 $62.86 · P90 $506.94
  8. Rank 08 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $25.86–$47.20 Chase expected value: $15.13 · Non-chase: $20.03 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $21.34 P25 $15.76 · P75 $38.83 Expected value to price ratio: 28.0% $35.16 P10 $12.86 · P90 $87.16
  9. Rank 09 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.61–$40.27 Chase expected value: $14.02 · Non-chase: $17.17 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.8% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $18.55 P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.12 Expected value to price ratio: 26.4% $31.20 P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.47
  10. Rank 10 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.50–$180.48 Chase expected value: $56.08 · Non-chase: $72.90 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.5% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $80.81 P25 $51.79 · P75 $154.73 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $128.99 P10 $36.09 · P90 $267.39
  11. Rank 11 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $32.70–$60.11 Chase expected value: $18.48 · Non-chase: $25.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.0% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $27.97 P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.8% $44.25 P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
  12. Rank 12 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.38–$46.03 Chase expected value: $18.31 · Non-chase: $14.24 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.8% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $15.21 P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42 Expected value to price ratio: 23.1% $32.56 P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
  13. Rank 13 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $19.94–$41.00 Chase expected value: $14.66 · Non-chase: $13.65 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.7% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $13.36 P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.37 Expected value to price ratio: 22.4% $28.31 P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.43
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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