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Disney Lorcana · Attack of the Vine! · 24 packs per booster box

Attack of the Vine! Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box (24 packs) vs. its $188.70 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 24 packs · 452/452 printings priced · USD Browse Attack of the Vine! card values
Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends Winnie the Pooh & Piglet - Hunny Mages

Top chase: Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends ($1,413.30) · Attack of the Vine!

Attack of the Vine!Seller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$89.10Attack of the Vine! · 90% credible mean: $50.77–$133.27
Expected value to box price
47.2%Reflective market: $188.70 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2%
Median box (P50)
$26.88P10–P90 spread: $17.00–$174.96 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$67.70 (76.0%)Non-chase floor: $21.39 · P(any chase): 84.1%
Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (47.2% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $26.88; clearing the $188.70 reflective market price (8.2% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($188.70) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $17.00 (unlucky P10) and $174.96 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $17.00–$174.96 Typical / Median (P50): $26.88 Expected value (Mean): $89.10 Box price: $188.70

Top chase cards in Attack of the Vine!

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Holofoil · #245 $1,694.38 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $13.56/box
  2. Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends Holofoil · #244 $1,413.30 ~1 in 125.0 boxes · EV $11.31/box
  3. Winnie the Pooh & Piglet - Hunny Mages Winnie the Pooh & Piglet - Hunny Mages Holofoil · #234 $663.22 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $9.21/box
  4. Mickey Mouse & Minnie Mouse - Adventuring Duo Mickey Mouse & Minnie Mouse - Adventuring Duo Holofoil · #238 $378.69 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $5.26/box
  5. Woody & Buzz Lightyear - Best Buddies Woody & Buzz Lightyear - Best Buddies Holofoil · #228 $265.92 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $3.69/box
  6. Sulley & Boo - Scare Buddies Sulley & Boo - Scare Buddies Holofoil · #229 $184.05 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.56/box
  7. Peter Pan & Tinker Bell - Fast Friends Peter Pan & Tinker Bell - Fast Friends Holofoil · #233 $155.18 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.16/box
  8. Aladdin & Genie - Mischievous Pals Aladdin & Genie - Mischievous Pals Holofoil · #232 $153.99 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.14/box
  9. Rapunzel & Flynn Rider - Unlikely Pair Rapunzel & Flynn Rider - Unlikely Pair Holofoil · #239 $150.75 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.09/box
  10. Tod & Copper - Best of Friends Tod & Copper - Best of Friends Holofoil · #236 $110.28 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.53/box

Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Attack of the Vine! · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $158.72Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 44.5% $39.68 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Iconic Attack of the Vine! · 0.0160 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $1,553.75Avg / pulled copy 0.016Copies / box 27.9% $24.86 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Common Attack of the Vine! · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 4.8% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Epic Attack of the Vine! · 1.50 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $2.11Avg / pulled copy 1.50Copies / box 3.5% $3.16 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Cold Foil Legendary Attack of the Vine! · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $3.63Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 3.1% $2.72 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Legendary Attack of the Vine! · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.67Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 3.0% $2.65 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Super Rare Attack of the Vine! · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.22Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 2.8% $2.51 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Uncommon Attack of the Vine! · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 2.4% $2.16 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Cold Foil Super Rare Attack of the Vine! · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.72Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 2.4% $2.11 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Uncommon Attack of the Vine! · 5.35 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.37Avg / pulled copy 5.35Copies / box 2.2% $1.99 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Rare Attack of the Vine! · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.05Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 1.7% $1.50 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Cold Foil Rare Attack of the Vine! · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.32Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 1.2% $1.08 Expected tier contribution
  13. Tier 13 Cold Foil Common Attack of the Vine! · 11.57 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 11.57Copies / box 0.4% $0.35 Expected tier contribution

Attack of the Vine! · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun Attack of the Vine! · #245 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $1,694.38 $13.56 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $1,694.38
  2. Rank 02 Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends Attack of the Vine! · #244 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 125.0 boxes 1 : 125.0Box odds 0.0080Copies / box $1,413.30 $11.31 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $1,413.30
  3. Rank 03 Winnie the Pooh & Piglet - Hunny Mages Attack of the Vine! · #234 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $663.22 $9.21 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $663.22
  4. Rank 04 Mickey Mouse & Minnie Mouse - Adventuring Duo Attack of the Vine! · #238 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $378.69 $5.26 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $378.69
  5. Rank 05 Woody & Buzz Lightyear - Best Buddies Attack of the Vine! · #228 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $265.92 $3.69 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $265.92
  6. Rank 06 Sulley & Boo - Scare Buddies Attack of the Vine! · #229 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $184.05 $2.56 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $184.05
  7. Rank 07 Peter Pan & Tinker Bell - Fast Friends Attack of the Vine! · #233 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $155.18 $2.16 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $155.18
  8. Rank 08 Aladdin & Genie - Mischievous Pals Attack of the Vine! · #232 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $153.99 $2.14 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $153.99
  9. Rank 09 Rapunzel & Flynn Rider - Unlikely Pair Attack of the Vine! · #239 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $150.75 $2.09 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $150.75
  10. Rank 10 Tod & Copper - Best of Friends Attack of the Vine! · #236 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $110.28 $1.53 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $110.28
Advanced statistical breakdown for Attack of the Vine! (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Attack of the Vine! · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Epic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 16.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 3.674%–9.388% per pack 1.5000 expected copies per booster box 3.67%–9.39%90% credible / pack 1 : 16.0Packs 6.25% 1.50 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.414%–1.909% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.91%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Iconic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 1500.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.004%–0.196% per pack 0.0160 expected copies per booster box 0.00%–0.20%90% credible / pack 1 : 1500.0Packs 0.07% 0.02 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Attack of the Vine! · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $69.45 · High expected value: $128.40 $69.45Low scenario $128.40High scenario ±$29.48 $58.95 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $69.24 · High expected value: $108.96 $69.24Low scenario $108.96High scenario ±$19.86 $39.72 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Pull rate: Iconic Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $76.68 · High expected value: $113.92 $76.68Low scenario $113.92High scenario ±$18.62 $37.24 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Iconic Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $76.67 · High expected value: $101.53 $76.67Low scenario $101.53High scenario ±$12.43 $24.86 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Super Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $86.93 · High expected value: $91.84 $86.93Low scenario $91.84High scenario ±$2.46 $4.91 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $87.65 · High expected value: $91.64 $87.65Low scenario $91.64High scenario ±$2.00 $3.99 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Attack of the Vine!
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Attack of the Vine! Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Attack of the Vine! packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Attack of the Vine! → · View Attack of the Vine! card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $101.58–$186.13 Chase expected value: $67.46 · Non-chase: $68.95 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.2% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $87.37 P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54 Expected value to price ratio: 57.3% $136.41 P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
  2. Rank 02 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.40–$161.23 Chase expected value: $53.30 · Non-chase: $77.20 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.1% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $93.50 P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11 Expected value to price ratio: 49.1% $130.51 P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
  3. Rank 03 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $50.77–$133.27 Chase expected value: $67.70 · Non-chase: $21.39 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $26.88 P25 $20.75 · P75 $43.32 Expected value to price ratio: 47.2% $89.10 P10 $17.00 · P90 $174.96
  4. Rank 04 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.32–$173.45 Chase expected value: $62.36 · Non-chase: $29.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.6% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.40 P25 $28.61 · P75 $56.18 Expected value to price ratio: 38.8% $91.98 P10 $22.55 · P90 $119.37
  5. Rank 05 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $33.36–$86.95 Chase expected value: $36.82 · Non-chase: $19.76 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $20.51 P25 $15.92 · P75 $38.95 Expected value to price ratio: 37.3% $56.58 P10 $13.24 · P90 $165.40
  6. Rank 06 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.78–$66.03 Chase expected value: $27.20 · Non-chase: $19.20 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.8% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $19.96 P25 $14.94 · P75 $42.65 Expected value to price ratio: 34.9% $46.40 P10 $12.42 · P90 $116.22
  7. Rank 07 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $162.94–$353.73 Chase expected value: $162.38 · Non-chase: $87.42 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.29 P25 $86.59 · P75 $211.74 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $249.80 P10 $62.86 · P90 $506.94
  8. Rank 08 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $25.86–$47.20 Chase expected value: $15.13 · Non-chase: $20.03 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $21.34 P25 $15.76 · P75 $38.83 Expected value to price ratio: 28.0% $35.16 P10 $12.86 · P90 $87.16
  9. Rank 09 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.61–$40.27 Chase expected value: $14.02 · Non-chase: $17.17 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.8% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $18.55 P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.12 Expected value to price ratio: 26.4% $31.20 P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.47
  10. Rank 10 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.50–$180.48 Chase expected value: $56.08 · Non-chase: $72.90 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.5% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $80.81 P25 $51.79 · P75 $154.73 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $128.99 P10 $36.09 · P90 $267.39
  11. Rank 11 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $32.70–$60.11 Chase expected value: $18.48 · Non-chase: $25.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.0% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $27.97 P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.8% $44.25 P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
  12. Rank 12 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.38–$46.03 Chase expected value: $18.31 · Non-chase: $14.24 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.8% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $15.21 P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42 Expected value to price ratio: 23.1% $32.56 P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
  13. Rank 13 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $19.94–$41.00 Chase expected value: $14.66 · Non-chase: $13.65 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.7% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $13.36 P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.37 Expected value to price ratio: 22.4% $28.31 P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.43
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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