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Star Wars: Unlimited · Spark of Rebellion · 24 packs per booster display

Spark of Rebellion Booster Display expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster display outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Star Wars: Unlimited - Spark of Rebellion Booster Display (24 packs) vs. its $64.77 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 24 packs · 938/938 printings priced · USD Browse Spark of Rebellion card values
Boba Fett — Collecting the Bounty Leia Organa — Alliance General Emperor Palpatine — Galactic Ruler

Top chase in Spark of Rebellion: Leia Organa — Alliance General ($181.89)

Spark of RebellionSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$52.87Spark of Rebellion · 90% credible mean: $44.36–$63.47
Expected value to box price
81.6%Reflective market: $64.77 (2026-10-14) · P(box ≥ cost): 15.9%
Median box (P50)
$45.15P10–P90 spread: $31.22–$71.52 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$11.92 (22.5%)Non-chase floor: $40.96 · P(any chase): 44.8%
Star Wars: Unlimited - Spark of Rebellion Booster Display · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (81.6% of reflective market price)Typical (median) box returns $45.15; clearing the $64.77 reflective market price (15.9% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($64.77) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $31.22 (unlucky P10) and $71.52 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster display · 938/938 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $31.22–$71.52 Typical / Median (P50): $45.15 Expected value (Mean): $52.87 Reflective market price: $64.77

Top chase cards in Spark of Rebellion

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Boba Fett — Collecting the Bounty Boba Fett — Collecting the Bounty Foil (showcase) · #265 $256.71 ~1 in 192.0 boxes · EV $1.34/box
  2. Leia Organa — Alliance General Leia Organa — Alliance General Foil (showcase) · #260 $181.89 ~1 in 192.0 boxes · EV $0.95/box
  3. Emperor Palpatine — Galactic Ruler Emperor Palpatine — Galactic Ruler Foil (showcase) · #257 $178.49 ~1 in 192.0 boxes · EV $0.93/box
  4. Hera Syndulla — Spectre Two Hera Syndulla — Spectre Two Foil (showcase) · #259 $115.58 ~1 in 192.0 boxes · EV $0.60/box
  5. Sabine Wren — Galvanized Revolutionary Sabine Wren — Galvanized Revolutionary Foil (showcase) · #264 $107.35 ~1 in 192.0 boxes · EV $0.56/box
  6. Han Solo — Audacious Smuggler Han Solo — Audacious Smuggler Foil (showcase) · #267 $104.72 ~1 in 192.0 boxes · EV $0.55/box
  7. Cassian Andor — Dedicated to the Rebellion Cassian Andor — Dedicated to the Rebellion Foil (showcase) · #263 $80.25 ~1 in 192.0 boxes · EV $0.42/box
  8. Chewbacca — Walking Carpet Chewbacca — Walking Carpet Foil (showcase) · #255 $67.89 ~1 in 192.0 boxes · EV $0.35/box
  9. Grand Moff Tarkin — Oversector Governor Grand Moff Tarkin — Oversector Governor Foil (showcase) · #258 $67.69 ~1 in 192.0 boxes · EV $0.35/box
  10. Luke Skywalker — Jedi Knight Luke Skywalker — Jedi Knight Foil (hyperspace) · #317 $66.71 ~1 in 666.7 boxes · EV $0.10/box

Star Wars: Unlimited - Spark of Rebellion Booster Display · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Leader Spark of Rebellion · 19.92 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.42Avg / pulled copy 19.92Copies / box 15.8% $8.33 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Showcase Leader Spark of Rebellion · 0.0833 expected copies per booster display Chase tier $94.56Avg / pulled copy 0.083Copies / box 14.9% $7.88 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Legendary Spark of Rebellion · 3.00 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $2.45Avg / pulled copy 3.00Copies / box 13.9% $7.36 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Common Spark of Rebellion · 236.00 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 236.00Copies / box 13.4% $7.08 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Hyperspace Uncommon Spark of Rebellion · 7.92 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.76Avg / pulled copy 7.92Copies / box 11.3% $5.99 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Hyperspace Rare Spark of Rebellion · 2.52 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $2.16Avg / pulled copy 2.52Copies / box 10.3% $5.45 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Hyperspace Legendary Spark of Rebellion · 0.36 expected copies per booster display Chase tier $7.72Avg / pulled copy 0.36Copies / box 5.3% $2.78 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Uncommon Spark of Rebellion · 61.20 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 61.20Copies / box 3.5% $1.84 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Foil Legendary Spark of Rebellion · 0.29 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $5.03Avg / pulled copy 0.29Copies / box 2.7% $1.45 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Hyperspace Foil Rare Spark of Rebellion · 0.12 expected copies per booster display Chase tier $6.50Avg / pulled copy 0.12Copies / box 1.5% $0.78 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Rare Spark of Rebellion · 21.00 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 21.00Copies / box 1.2% $0.63 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Foil Uncommon Spark of Rebellion · 5.76 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.10Avg / pulled copy 5.76Copies / box 1.0% $0.55 Expected tier contribution
  13. Tier 13 Hyperspace Foil Uncommon Spark of Rebellion · 0.24 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $2.29Avg / pulled copy 0.24Copies / box 1.0% $0.55 Expected tier contribution
  14. Tier 14 Hyperspace Leader Spark of Rebellion · 4.00 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.13Avg / pulled copy 4.00Copies / box 1.0% $0.51 Expected tier contribution
  15. Tier 15 Hyperspace Foil Legendary Spark of Rebellion · 0.0240 expected copies per booster display Chase tier $20.00Avg / pulled copy 0.024Copies / box 0.9% $0.48 Expected tier contribution
  16. Tier 16 Foil Common Spark of Rebellion · 14.88 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 14.88Copies / box 0.9% $0.45 Expected tier contribution
  17. Tier 17 Foil Rare Spark of Rebellion · 2.11 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.20Avg / pulled copy 2.11Copies / box 0.8% $0.43 Expected tier contribution
  18. Tier 18 Hyperspace Common Spark of Rebellion · 4.00 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.06Avg / pulled copy 4.00Copies / box 0.4% $0.23 Expected tier contribution
  19. Tier 19 Hyperspace Foil Common Spark of Rebellion · 0.58 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.17Avg / pulled copy 0.58Copies / box 0.2% $0.10 Expected tier contribution

Spark of Rebellion · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Boba Fett — Collecting the Bounty Spark of Rebellion · #265 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 192.0 boxes 1 : 192.0Box odds 0.0052Copies / box $256.71 $1.34 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $256.71
  2. Rank 02 Leia Organa — Alliance General Spark of Rebellion · #260 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 192.0 boxes 1 : 192.0Box odds 0.0052Copies / box $181.89 $0.95 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $181.89
  3. Rank 03 Emperor Palpatine — Galactic Ruler Spark of Rebellion · #257 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 192.0 boxes 1 : 192.0Box odds 0.0052Copies / box $178.49 $0.93 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $178.49
  4. Rank 04 Hera Syndulla — Spectre Two Spark of Rebellion · #259 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 192.0 boxes 1 : 192.0Box odds 0.0052Copies / box $115.58 $0.60 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $115.58
  5. Rank 05 Sabine Wren — Galvanized Revolutionary Spark of Rebellion · #264 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 192.0 boxes 1 : 192.0Box odds 0.0052Copies / box $107.35 $0.56 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $107.35
  6. Rank 06 Han Solo — Audacious Smuggler Spark of Rebellion · #267 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 192.0 boxes 1 : 192.0Box odds 0.0052Copies / box $104.72 $0.55 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $104.72
  7. Rank 07 Cassian Andor — Dedicated to the Rebellion Spark of Rebellion · #263 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 192.0 boxes 1 : 192.0Box odds 0.0052Copies / box $80.25 $0.42 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $80.25
  8. Rank 08 Chewbacca — Walking Carpet Spark of Rebellion · #255 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 192.0 boxes 1 : 192.0Box odds 0.0052Copies / box $67.89 $0.35 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $67.89
  9. Rank 09 Grand Moff Tarkin — Oversector Governor Spark of Rebellion · #258 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 192.0 boxes 1 : 192.0Box odds 0.0052Copies / box $67.69 $0.35 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $67.69
  10. Rank 10 Luke Skywalker — Jedi Knight Spark of Rebellion · #317 Foil (hyperspace) Hyperspace Foil Legendary · ~1 in 666.7 boxes 1 : 666.7Box odds 0.0015Copies / box $66.71 $0.10 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $66.71
Advanced statistical breakdown for Spark of Rebellion (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Spark of Rebellion · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Showcase Leader Pack slot: Leader · ~1 in 288.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.051%–0.899% per pack 0.0833 expected copies per booster display 0.05%–0.90%90% credible / pack 1 : 288.0Packs 0.35% 0.08 / box Posterior mean per booster display
  2. 02 Hs Legendary Pack slot: Uncommons · ~1 in 66.7 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.139%–1.069% per pack 0.3600 expected copies per booster display 0.14%–1.07%90% credible / pack 1 : 66.7Packs 0.50% 0.36 / box Posterior mean per booster display
  3. 03 Hsf Rare Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 200.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.061%–1.307% per pack 0.1200 expected copies per booster display 0.06%–1.31%90% credible / pack 1 : 200.0Packs 0.50% 0.12 / box Posterior mean per booster display
  4. 04 Hsf Legendary Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 1000.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.000%–0.447% per pack 0.0240 expected copies per booster display 0.00%–0.45%90% credible / pack 1 : 1000.0Packs 0.10% 0.02 / box Posterior mean per booster display

Spark of Rebellion · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Showcase Leader Slot: Leader · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $48.96 · High expected value: $60.76 $48.96Low scenario $60.76High scenario ±$5.90 $11.80 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Leader Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $48.82 · High expected value: $56.95 $48.82Low scenario $56.95High scenario ±$4.07 $8.13 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $48.66 · High expected value: $56.76 $48.66Low scenario $56.76High scenario ±$4.05 $8.10 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Hyperspace Uncommon Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $49.24 · High expected value: $57.16 $49.24Low scenario $57.16High scenario ±$3.96 $7.92 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Showcase Leader Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $48.94 · High expected value: $56.85 $48.94Low scenario $56.85High scenario ±$3.96 $7.91 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Hyperspace Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $49.77 · High expected value: $56.00 $49.77Low scenario $56.00High scenario ±$3.12 $6.23 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Spark of Rebellion
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Uses FFG published approximate booster pack pull rates (~1 in 8 Legendary, ~1 in 288 Showcase leader, ~1 in 15 Hyperspace Rare/Legendary).
  • Every card in a pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Spark of Rebellion Booster Display on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Spark of Rebellion packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Spark of Rebellion → · View Spark of Rebellion card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Homeworlds (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Homeworlds Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 577/672 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $250.06–$309.22 Chase expected value: $46.61 · Non-chase: $229.27 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 86.9% $184.68 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $244.09 P25 $207.39 · P75 $308.95 Expected value to price ratio: 149.4% $275.88 P10 $178.70 · P90 $440.28
  2. Rank 02 Secrets of Power Star Wars: Unlimited - Secrets of Power Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 988/990 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $46.33–$58.97 Chase expected value: $6.26 · Non-chase: $45.27 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 75.0% $38.66 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $47.29 P25 $38.67 · P75 $58.23 Expected value to price ratio: 133.3% $51.53 P10 $32.13 · P90 $72.39
  3. Rank 03 Secrets of Power (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Secrets of Power Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 867/887 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $110.47–$141.11 Chase expected value: $33.25 · Non-chase: $90.85 P(any chase): 45.4% · P(box ≥ cost): 53.6% $104.30 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $107.41 P25 $85.91 · P75 $147.04 Expected value to price ratio: 119.0% $124.10 P10 $72.08 · P90 $196.12
  4. Rank 04 A Lawless Time (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - A Lawless Time Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 616/637 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $179.43–$240.94 Chase expected value: $64.59 · Non-chase: $147.97 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 48.5% $184.37 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $179.22 P25 $136.53 · P75 $263.50 Expected value to price ratio: 115.3% $212.56 P10 $111.48 · P90 $365.11
  5. Rank 05 Homeworlds Star Wars: Unlimited - Homeworlds Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 713/776 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $66.92–$100.41 Chase expected value: $23.44 · Non-chase: $55.53 P(any chase): 95.5% · P(box ≥ cost): 45.8% $70.98 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $68.06 P25 $54.10 · P75 $85.36 Expected value to price ratio: 111.3% $78.97 P10 $44.45 · P90 $107.48
  6. Rank 06 Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 624/661 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $196.58–$265.55 Chase expected value: $69.63 · Non-chase: $161.50 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 44.9% $212.25 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $194.11 P25 $143.17 · P75 $282.32 Expected value to price ratio: 108.9% $231.13 P10 $111.31 · P90 $403.93
  7. Rank 07 Ashes of the Empire Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 760/760 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $61.86–$97.26 Chase expected value: $24.02 · Non-chase: $52.87 P(any chase): 95.5% · P(box ≥ cost): 39.1% $72.56 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $61.83 P25 $45.04 · P75 $86.45 Expected value to price ratio: 106.0% $76.89 P10 $35.58 · P90 $125.36
  8. Rank 08 A Lawless Time Star Wars: Unlimited - A Lawless Time Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 760/760 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $54.83–$87.91 Chase expected value: $22.38 · Non-chase: $44.83 P(any chase): 95.5% · P(box ≥ cost): 31.2% $68.88 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $55.65 P25 $42.49 · P75 $73.20 Expected value to price ratio: 97.6% $67.21 P10 $33.33 · P90 $100.52
  9. Rank 09 Legends of the Force (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Legends of the Force Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 870/896 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $118.48–$160.93 Chase expected value: $38.35 · Non-chase: $96.15 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 29.0% $147.18 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $111.42 P25 $89.97 · P75 $154.00 Expected value to price ratio: 91.4% $134.50 P10 $75.73 · P90 $208.35
  10. Rank 10 Legends of the Force Star Wars: Unlimited - Legends of the Force Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 989/990 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.32–$42.38 Chase expected value: $7.14 · Non-chase: $27.84 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 21.8% $40.11 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $29.08 P25 $22.92 · P75 $37.27 Expected value to price ratio: 87.2% $34.97 P10 $19.26 · P90 $50.38
  11. Rank 11 Spark of Rebellion Star Wars: Unlimited - Spark of Rebellion Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 938/938 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $44.36–$63.47 Chase expected value: $11.92 · Non-chase: $40.96 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 15.9% $64.77 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $45.15 P25 $37.26 · P75 $54.47 Expected value to price ratio: 81.6% $52.87 P10 $31.22 · P90 $71.52
  12. Rank 12 Jump to Lightspeed Star Wars: Unlimited - Jump to Lightspeed Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 977/982 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $37.88–$51.92 Chase expected value: $6.50 · Non-chase: $37.09 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 16.5% $55.92 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $38.45 P25 $30.49 · P75 $48.33 Expected value to price ratio: 78.0% $43.59 P10 $25.05 · P90 $61.67
  13. Rank 13 Jump to Lightspeed (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Jump to Lightspeed Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 835/860 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $121.23–$153.59 Chase expected value: $30.70 · Non-chase: $104.02 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 19.8% $173.60 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $119.65 P25 $97.46 · P75 $153.44 Expected value to price ratio: 77.6% $134.72 P10 $82.72 · P90 $211.39
  14. Rank 14 Twilight of the Republic Star Wars: Unlimited - Twilight of the Republic Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 940/940 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $18.80–$38.26 Chase expected value: $8.47 · Non-chase: $16.18 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.2% $32.69 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $17.32 P25 $14.93 · P75 $20.81 Expected value to price ratio: 75.4% $24.65 P10 $13.27 · P90 $27.56
  15. Rank 15 Shadows of the Galaxy Star Wars: Unlimited - Shadows of the Galaxy Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 939/940 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $26.97–$44.92 Chase expected value: $8.83 · Non-chase: $24.94 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.7% $50.73 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $26.81 P25 $22.22 · P75 $32.93 Expected value to price ratio: 66.6% $33.77 P10 $18.80 · P90 $43.92
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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