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Star Wars: Unlimited · Shadows of the Galaxy · 24 packs per booster display

Shadows of the Galaxy Booster Display expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster display outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Star Wars: Unlimited - Shadows of the Galaxy Booster Display (24 packs) vs. its $50.73 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 24 packs · 939/940 printings priced · USD Browse Shadows of the Galaxy card values
Cad Bane — He Who Needs No Introduction The Mandalorian — Sworn to the Creed Gar Saxon — Viceroy of Mandalore

Top chase in Shadows of the Galaxy: The Mandalorian — Sworn to the Creed ($145.39)

Shadows of the GalaxySeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$33.77Shadows of the Galaxy · 90% credible mean: $26.97–$44.92
Expected value to box price
66.6%Reflective market: $50.73 (2026-10-14) · P(box ≥ cost): 7.7%
Median box (P50)
$26.81P10–P90 spread: $18.80–$43.92 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$8.83 (26.1%)Non-chase floor: $24.94 · P(any chase): 44.8%
Star Wars: Unlimited - Shadows of the Galaxy Booster Display · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (66.6% of reflective market price)Typical (median) box returns $26.81; clearing the $50.73 reflective market price (7.7% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($50.73) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $18.80 (unlucky P10) and $43.92 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster display · 939/940 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $18.80–$43.92 Typical / Median (P50): $26.81 Expected value (Mean): $33.77 Reflective market price: $50.73

Top chase cards in Shadows of the Galaxy

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Cad Bane — He Who Needs No Introduction Cad Bane — He Who Needs No Introduction Foil (showcase) · #276 $156.08 ~1 in 216.0 boxes · EV $0.72/box
  2. The Mandalorian — Sworn to the Creed The Mandalorian — Sworn to the Creed Foil (showcase) · #280 $145.39 ~1 in 216.0 boxes · EV $0.67/box
  3. Gar Saxon — Viceroy of Mandalore Gar Saxon — Viceroy of Mandalore Foil (showcase) · #263 $132.00 ~1 in 216.0 boxes · EV $0.61/box
  4. Rey — More Than a Scavenger Rey — More Than a Scavenger Foil (showcase) · #266 $120.67 ~1 in 216.0 boxes · EV $0.56/box
  5. Qi'ra — I Alone Survived Qi'ra — I Alone Survived Foil (showcase) · #264 $117.31 ~1 in 216.0 boxes · EV $0.54/box
  6. Han Solo — Worth the Risk Han Solo — Worth the Risk Foil (showcase) · #275 $115.18 ~1 in 216.0 boxes · EV $0.53/box
  7. Bo-Katan Kryze — Princess in Exile Bo-Katan Kryze — Princess in Exile Foil (showcase) · #274 $109.35 ~1 in 216.0 boxes · EV $0.51/box
  8. Kylo Ren — Rash and Deadly Kylo Ren — Rash and Deadly Foil (showcase) · #273 $92.12 ~1 in 216.0 boxes · EV $0.43/box
  9. Jabba the Hutt — His High Exaltdeness Jabba the Hutt — His High Exaltdeness Foil (showcase) · #268 $70.33 ~1 in 216.0 boxes · EV $0.33/box
  10. Bossk — Hunting His Prey Bossk — Hunting His Prey Foil (showcase) · #272 $66.22 ~1 in 216.0 boxes · EV $0.31/box

Star Wars: Unlimited - Shadows of the Galaxy Booster Display · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Common Shadows of the Galaxy · 236.00 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 236.00Copies / box 21.0% $7.08 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Showcase Leader Shadows of the Galaxy · 0.0833 expected copies per booster display Chase tier $81.36Avg / pulled copy 0.083Copies / box 20.1% $6.78 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Hyperspace Rare Shadows of the Galaxy · 2.52 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $1.95Avg / pulled copy 2.52Copies / box 14.5% $4.91 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Hyperspace Uncommon Shadows of the Galaxy · 7.92 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.50Avg / pulled copy 7.92Copies / box 11.7% $3.96 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Legendary Shadows of the Galaxy · 3.00 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.73Avg / pulled copy 3.00Copies / box 6.5% $2.19 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Uncommon Shadows of the Galaxy · 61.20 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 61.20Copies / box 5.4% $1.84 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Hyperspace Legendary Shadows of the Galaxy · 0.36 expected copies per booster display Chase tier $3.67Avg / pulled copy 0.36Copies / box 3.9% $1.32 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Rare Shadows of the Galaxy · 21.00 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.05Avg / pulled copy 21.00Copies / box 3.3% $1.11 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Foil Legendary Shadows of the Galaxy · 0.29 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $2.26Avg / pulled copy 0.29Copies / box 1.9% $0.65 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Hyperspace Leader Shadows of the Galaxy · 4.00 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.16Avg / pulled copy 4.00Copies / box 1.9% $0.64 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Leader Shadows of the Galaxy · 19.92 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 19.92Copies / box 1.8% $0.60 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Foil Rare Shadows of the Galaxy · 2.11 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.27Avg / pulled copy 2.11Copies / box 1.7% $0.56 Expected tier contribution
  13. Tier 13 Hyperspace Foil Rare Shadows of the Galaxy · 0.12 expected copies per booster display Chase tier 1 unpriced in catalog ($0 floor) $4.50Avg / pulled copy 0.12Copies / box 1.6% $0.54 Expected tier contribution
  14. Tier 14 Foil Common Shadows of the Galaxy · 14.88 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 14.88Copies / box 1.3% $0.45 Expected tier contribution
  15. Tier 15 Foil Uncommon Shadows of the Galaxy · 5.76 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.06Avg / pulled copy 5.76Copies / box 1.0% $0.34 Expected tier contribution
  16. Tier 16 Hyperspace Foil Uncommon Shadows of the Galaxy · 0.24 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $1.38Avg / pulled copy 0.24Copies / box 1.0% $0.33 Expected tier contribution
  17. Tier 17 Hyperspace Common Shadows of the Galaxy · 4.00 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.05Avg / pulled copy 4.00Copies / box 0.6% $0.21 Expected tier contribution
  18. Tier 18 Hyperspace Foil Legendary Shadows of the Galaxy · 0.0240 expected copies per booster display Chase tier $7.50Avg / pulled copy 0.024Copies / box 0.5% $0.18 Expected tier contribution
  19. Tier 19 Hyperspace Foil Common Shadows of the Galaxy · 0.58 expected copies per booster display Non-chase tier $0.16Avg / pulled copy 0.58Copies / box 0.3% $0.09 Expected tier contribution

Shadows of the Galaxy · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Cad Bane — He Who Needs No Introduction Shadows of the Galaxy · #276 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 216.0 boxes 1 : 216.0Box odds 0.0046Copies / box $156.08 $0.72 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $156.08
  2. Rank 02 The Mandalorian — Sworn to the Creed Shadows of the Galaxy · #280 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 216.0 boxes 1 : 216.0Box odds 0.0046Copies / box $145.39 $0.67 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $145.39
  3. Rank 03 Gar Saxon — Viceroy of Mandalore Shadows of the Galaxy · #263 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 216.0 boxes 1 : 216.0Box odds 0.0046Copies / box $132.00 $0.61 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $132.00
  4. Rank 04 Rey — More Than a Scavenger Shadows of the Galaxy · #266 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 216.0 boxes 1 : 216.0Box odds 0.0046Copies / box $120.67 $0.56 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $120.67
  5. Rank 05 Qi'ra — I Alone Survived Shadows of the Galaxy · #264 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 216.0 boxes 1 : 216.0Box odds 0.0046Copies / box $117.31 $0.54 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $117.31
  6. Rank 06 Han Solo — Worth the Risk Shadows of the Galaxy · #275 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 216.0 boxes 1 : 216.0Box odds 0.0046Copies / box $115.18 $0.53 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $115.18
  7. Rank 07 Bo-Katan Kryze — Princess in Exile Shadows of the Galaxy · #274 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 216.0 boxes 1 : 216.0Box odds 0.0046Copies / box $109.35 $0.51 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $109.35
  8. Rank 08 Kylo Ren — Rash and Deadly Shadows of the Galaxy · #273 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 216.0 boxes 1 : 216.0Box odds 0.0046Copies / box $92.12 $0.43 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $92.12
  9. Rank 09 Jabba the Hutt — His High Exaltdeness Shadows of the Galaxy · #268 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 216.0 boxes 1 : 216.0Box odds 0.0046Copies / box $70.33 $0.33 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $70.33
  10. Rank 10 Bossk — Hunting His Prey Shadows of the Galaxy · #272 Foil (showcase) Showcase Leader · ~1 in 216.0 boxes 1 : 216.0Box odds 0.0046Copies / box $66.22 $0.31 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $66.22
Advanced statistical breakdown for Shadows of the Galaxy (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Shadows of the Galaxy · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Showcase Leader Pack slot: Leader · ~1 in 288.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.051%–0.899% per pack 0.0833 expected copies per booster display 0.05%–0.90%90% credible / pack 1 : 288.0Packs 0.35% 0.08 / box Posterior mean per booster display
  2. 02 Hs Legendary Pack slot: Uncommons · ~1 in 66.7 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.139%–1.069% per pack 0.3600 expected copies per booster display 0.14%–1.07%90% credible / pack 1 : 66.7Packs 0.50% 0.36 / box Posterior mean per booster display
  3. 03 Hsf Rare Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 200.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.061%–1.307% per pack 0.1200 expected copies per booster display 0.06%–1.31%90% credible / pack 1 : 200.0Packs 0.50% 0.12 / box Posterior mean per booster display
  4. 04 Hsf Legendary Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 1000.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.000%–0.447% per pack 0.0240 expected copies per booster display 0.00%–0.45%90% credible / pack 1 : 1000.0Packs 0.10% 0.02 / box Posterior mean per booster display

Shadows of the Galaxy · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Showcase Leader Slot: Leader · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $30.38 · High expected value: $40.54 $30.38Low scenario $40.54High scenario ±$5.08 $10.16 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Showcase Leader Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $30.37 · High expected value: $37.16 $30.37Low scenario $37.16High scenario ±$3.40 $6.79 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Hyperspace Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $30.84 · High expected value: $36.88 $30.84Low scenario $36.88High scenario ±$3.02 $6.04 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Hyperspace Uncommon Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $31.14 · High expected value: $36.32 $31.14Low scenario $36.32High scenario ±$2.59 $5.18 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $32.40 · High expected value: $35.53 $32.40Low scenario $35.53High scenario ±$1.57 $3.13 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Pull rate: Hs Legendary Slot: Uncommons · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $33.13 · High expected value: $35.04 $33.13Low scenario $35.04High scenario ±$0.96 $1.91 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Shadows of the Galaxy
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • 1 modeled variants have no FoilFox price and count as zero, so the mean is a lower bound.
  • Uses FFG published approximate booster pack pull rates (~1 in 8 Legendary, ~1 in 288 Showcase leader, ~1 in 15 Hyperspace Rare/Legendary).
  • Every card in a pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Shadows of the Galaxy Booster Display on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Shadows of the Galaxy packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Shadows of the Galaxy → · View Shadows of the Galaxy card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Homeworlds (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Homeworlds Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 577/672 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $250.06–$309.22 Chase expected value: $46.61 · Non-chase: $229.27 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 86.9% $184.68 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $244.09 P25 $207.39 · P75 $308.95 Expected value to price ratio: 149.4% $275.88 P10 $178.70 · P90 $440.28
  2. Rank 02 Secrets of Power Star Wars: Unlimited - Secrets of Power Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 988/990 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $46.33–$58.97 Chase expected value: $6.26 · Non-chase: $45.27 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 75.0% $38.66 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $47.29 P25 $38.67 · P75 $58.23 Expected value to price ratio: 133.3% $51.53 P10 $32.13 · P90 $72.39
  3. Rank 03 Secrets of Power (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Secrets of Power Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 867/887 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $110.47–$141.11 Chase expected value: $33.25 · Non-chase: $90.85 P(any chase): 45.4% · P(box ≥ cost): 53.6% $104.30 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $107.41 P25 $85.91 · P75 $147.04 Expected value to price ratio: 119.0% $124.10 P10 $72.08 · P90 $196.12
  4. Rank 04 A Lawless Time (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - A Lawless Time Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 616/637 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $179.43–$240.94 Chase expected value: $64.59 · Non-chase: $147.97 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 48.5% $184.37 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $179.22 P25 $136.53 · P75 $263.50 Expected value to price ratio: 115.3% $212.56 P10 $111.48 · P90 $365.11
  5. Rank 05 Homeworlds Star Wars: Unlimited - Homeworlds Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 713/776 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $66.92–$100.41 Chase expected value: $23.44 · Non-chase: $55.53 P(any chase): 95.5% · P(box ≥ cost): 45.8% $70.98 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $68.06 P25 $54.10 · P75 $85.36 Expected value to price ratio: 111.3% $78.97 P10 $44.45 · P90 $107.48
  6. Rank 06 Ashes of the Empire (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 624/661 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $196.58–$265.55 Chase expected value: $69.63 · Non-chase: $161.50 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 44.9% $212.25 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $194.11 P25 $143.17 · P75 $282.32 Expected value to price ratio: 108.9% $231.13 P10 $111.31 · P90 $403.93
  7. Rank 07 Ashes of the Empire Star Wars: Unlimited - Ashes of the Empire Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 760/760 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $61.86–$97.26 Chase expected value: $24.02 · Non-chase: $52.87 P(any chase): 95.5% · P(box ≥ cost): 39.1% $72.56 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $61.83 P25 $45.04 · P75 $86.45 Expected value to price ratio: 106.0% $76.89 P10 $35.58 · P90 $125.36
  8. Rank 08 A Lawless Time Star Wars: Unlimited - A Lawless Time Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 760/760 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $54.83–$87.91 Chase expected value: $22.38 · Non-chase: $44.83 P(any chase): 95.5% · P(box ≥ cost): 31.2% $68.88 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $55.65 P25 $42.49 · P75 $73.20 Expected value to price ratio: 97.6% $67.21 P10 $33.33 · P90 $100.52
  9. Rank 09 Legends of the Force (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Legends of the Force Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 870/896 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $118.48–$160.93 Chase expected value: $38.35 · Non-chase: $96.15 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 29.0% $147.18 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $111.42 P25 $89.97 · P75 $154.00 Expected value to price ratio: 91.4% $134.50 P10 $75.73 · P90 $208.35
  10. Rank 10 Legends of the Force Star Wars: Unlimited - Legends of the Force Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 989/990 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.32–$42.38 Chase expected value: $7.14 · Non-chase: $27.84 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 21.8% $40.11 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $29.08 P25 $22.92 · P75 $37.27 Expected value to price ratio: 87.2% $34.97 P10 $19.26 · P90 $50.38
  11. Rank 11 Spark of Rebellion Star Wars: Unlimited - Spark of Rebellion Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 938/938 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $44.36–$63.47 Chase expected value: $11.92 · Non-chase: $40.96 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 15.9% $64.77 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $45.15 P25 $37.26 · P75 $54.47 Expected value to price ratio: 81.6% $52.87 P10 $31.22 · P90 $71.52
  12. Rank 12 Jump to Lightspeed Star Wars: Unlimited - Jump to Lightspeed Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 977/982 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $37.88–$51.92 Chase expected value: $6.50 · Non-chase: $37.09 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 16.5% $55.92 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $38.45 P25 $30.49 · P75 $48.33 Expected value to price ratio: 78.0% $43.59 P10 $25.05 · P90 $61.67
  13. Rank 13 Jump to Lightspeed (Carbonite Edition) Star Wars: Unlimited - Jump to Lightspeed Carbonite Edition Booster Display · 12 packs per Carbonite display · 835/860 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $121.23–$153.59 Chase expected value: $30.70 · Non-chase: $104.02 P(any chase): 45.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 19.8% $173.60 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $119.65 P25 $97.46 · P75 $153.44 Expected value to price ratio: 77.6% $134.72 P10 $82.72 · P90 $211.39
  14. Rank 14 Twilight of the Republic Star Wars: Unlimited - Twilight of the Republic Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 940/940 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $18.80–$38.26 Chase expected value: $8.47 · Non-chase: $16.18 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.2% $32.69 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $17.32 P25 $14.93 · P75 $20.81 Expected value to price ratio: 75.4% $24.65 P10 $13.27 · P90 $27.56
  15. Rank 15 Shadows of the Galaxy Star Wars: Unlimited - Shadows of the Galaxy Booster Display · 24 packs per booster display · 939/940 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $26.97–$44.92 Chase expected value: $8.83 · Non-chase: $24.94 P(any chase): 44.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.7% $50.73 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $26.81 P25 $22.22 · P75 $32.93 Expected value to price ratio: 66.6% $33.77 P10 $18.80 · P90 $43.92
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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