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Pokémon · Surging Sparks · 36 packs per booster box

Surging Sparks Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Surging Sparks Booster Box (36 packs) vs. its $295.27 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 36 packs · 417/417 printings priced · USD Browse Surging Sparks card values
Pikachu ex Latias ex Milotic ex

Top chase in Surging Sparks: Latias ex ($156.77)

Surging SparksSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$68.48Surging Sparks · 90% credible mean: $55.57–$80.77
Expected value to box price
23.2%Reflective market: $295.27 (2026-10-14) · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0%
Median box (P50)
$48.77P10–P90 spread: $25.00–$130.94 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$54.46 (79.5%)Non-chase floor: $14.02 · P(any chase): 100.0%
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Surging Sparks Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (23.2% of reflective market price)Typical (median) box returns $48.77; clearing the $295.27 reflective market price (1.0% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($295.27) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $25.00 (unlucky P10) and $130.94 (lucky P90) 36 packs per booster box · 417/417 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $25.00–$130.94 Typical / Median (P50): $48.77 Expected value (Mean): $68.48 Reflective market price: $295.27

Top chase cards in Surging Sparks

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Pikachu ex Pikachu ex en · Holo · #238 $237.93 ~1 in 26.3 boxes · EV $9.04/box
  2. Latias ex Latias ex en · Holo · #239 $156.77 ~1 in 26.3 boxes · EV $5.96/box
  3. Milotic ex Milotic ex en · Holo · #237 $91.82 ~1 in 26.3 boxes · EV $3.48/box
  4. Latios Latios en · Holo · #203 $24.96 ~1 in 8.3 boxes · EV $3.00/box
  5. Pikachu ex Pikachu ex en · Holo · #247 $63.71 ~1 in 23.1 boxes · EV $2.75/box
  6. Pikachu ex Pikachu ex en · Holo · #219 $23.29 ~1 in 8.7 boxes · EV $2.67/box
  7. Durant ex Durant ex en · Holo · #236 $32.35 ~1 in 26.3 boxes · EV $1.23/box
  8. Hydreigon ex Hydreigon ex en · Holo · #240 $28.82 ~1 in 26.3 boxes · EV $1.09/box
  9. Alolan Exeggutor ex Alolan Exeggutor ex en · Holo · #242 $21.07 ~1 in 26.3 boxes · EV $0.80/box
  10. Lisia's Appeal Lisia's Appeal en · Holo · #246 $21.16 ~1 in 26.3 boxes · EV $0.80/box

Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Surging Sparks Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Special Illustration Rare Surging Sparks · 0.42 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $57.42Avg / pulled copy 0.42Copies / box 35.0% $23.98 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Illustration Rare Surging Sparks · 2.77 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $6.75Avg / pulled copy 2.77Copies / box 27.3% $18.72 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Ultra Rare Surging Sparks · 2.41 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $2.60Avg / pulled copy 2.41Copies / box 9.2% $6.28 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Common Surging Sparks · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 6.3% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Hyper Rare Surging Sparks · 0.26 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $15.86Avg / pulled copy 0.26Copies / box 6.0% $4.11 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Double Rare Surging Sparks · 5.15 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.70Avg / pulled copy 5.15Copies / box 5.3% $3.60 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Uncommon Surging Sparks · 108.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 108.00Copies / box 4.7% $3.24 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Ace Spec Rare Surging Sparks · 1.80 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $0.76Avg / pulled copy 1.80Copies / box 2.0% $1.37 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Reverse Holo Common Surging Sparks · 33.38 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 33.38Copies / box 1.5% $1.00 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Holo Rare Surging Sparks · 28.44 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 28.44Copies / box 1.2% $0.85 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Reverse Holo Uncommon Surging Sparks · 23.36 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 23.36Copies / box 1.0% $0.70 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Reverse Holo Rare Surging Sparks · 10.01 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 10.01Copies / box 0.4% $0.30 Expected tier contribution

Surging Sparks · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Pikachu ex Surging Sparks · #238 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 26.3 boxes 1 : 26.3Box odds 0.0380Copies / box $237.93 $9.04 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $237.93
  2. Rank 02 Latias ex Surging Sparks · #239 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 26.3 boxes 1 : 26.3Box odds 0.0380Copies / box $156.77 $5.96 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $156.77
  3. Rank 03 Milotic ex Surging Sparks · #237 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 26.3 boxes 1 : 26.3Box odds 0.0380Copies / box $91.82 $3.48 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $91.82
  4. Rank 04 Latios Surging Sparks · #203 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 8.3 boxes 1 : 8.3Box odds 0.1205Copies / box $24.96 $3.00 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $24.96
  5. Rank 05 Pikachu ex Surging Sparks · #247 en · Holo Hyper Rare · ~1 in 23.1 boxes 1 : 23.1Box odds 0.0432Copies / box $63.71 $2.75 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $63.71
  6. Rank 06 Pikachu ex Surging Sparks · #219 en · Holo Ultra Rare · ~1 in 8.7 boxes 1 : 8.7Box odds 0.1149Copies / box $23.29 $2.67 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $23.29
  7. Rank 07 Durant ex Surging Sparks · #236 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 26.3 boxes 1 : 26.3Box odds 0.0380Copies / box $32.35 $1.23 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $32.35
  8. Rank 08 Hydreigon ex Surging Sparks · #240 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 26.3 boxes 1 : 26.3Box odds 0.0380Copies / box $28.82 $1.09 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $28.82
  9. Rank 09 Alolan Exeggutor ex Surging Sparks · #242 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 26.3 boxes 1 : 26.3Box odds 0.0380Copies / box $21.07 $0.80 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $21.07
  10. Rank 10 Lisia's Appeal Surging Sparks · #246 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 26.3 boxes 1 : 26.3Box odds 0.0380Copies / box $21.16 $0.80 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $21.16
Advanced statistical breakdown for Surging Sparks (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Surging Sparks · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Ace Spec Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 20.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 3.820%–6.399% per pack 1.8000 expected copies per booster box 3.82%–6.40%90% credible / pack 1 : 20.0Packs 5.00% 1.80 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Illustration Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 13.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 6.179%–9.346% per pack 2.7720 expected copies per booster box 6.18%–9.35%90% credible / pack 1 : 13.0Packs 7.70% 2.77 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Special Illustration Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 86.2 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.626%–1.836% per pack 0.4176 expected copies per booster box 0.63%–1.84%90% credible / pack 1 : 86.2Packs 1.16% 0.42 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  4. 04 Hyper Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 138.9 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.302%–1.240% per pack 0.2592 expected copies per booster box 0.30%–1.24%90% credible / pack 1 : 138.9Packs 0.72% 0.26 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  5. 05 Ultra Rare Pack slot: Holo-plus · ~1 in 14.9 packs 90% Beta posterior: 5.322%–8.167% per pack 2.4120 expected copies per booster box 5.32%–8.17%90% credible / pack 1 : 14.9Packs 6.70% 2.41 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Surging Sparks · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Special Illustration Rare Slot: Reverse Slot 2 · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $56.84 · High expected value: $92.65 $56.84Low scenario $92.65High scenario ±$17.91 $35.81 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Pull rate: Illustration Rare Slot: Reverse Slot 2 · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $60.68 · High expected value: $84.97 $60.68Low scenario $84.97High scenario ±$12.15 $24.29 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Special Illustration Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $56.66 · High expected value: $80.89 $56.66Low scenario $80.89High scenario ±$12.12 $24.23 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Illustration Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $59.13 · High expected value: $78.36 $59.13Low scenario $78.36High scenario ±$9.62 $19.23 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Pull rate: Ultra Rare Slot: Holo Plus · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $65.78 · High expected value: $74.77 $65.78Low scenario $74.77High scenario ±$4.50 $8.99 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Ultra Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $65.00 · High expected value: $72.41 $65.00Low scenario $72.41High scenario ±$3.71 $7.41 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Surging Sparks
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • The Pokémon Company International does not publish official pull rates; slot weights use TCGplayer multi-thousand-pack empirical opening benchmarks.
  • Card prices resolve from FoilFox printing-level TCGdex normal/holofoil/reverse observations when variant-level observations are absent.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Surging Sparks Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Surging Sparks packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Surging Sparks → · View Surging Sparks card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Set artwork Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Temporal Forces Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Temporal Forces Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 360/360 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $106.94–$136.71 Chase expected value: $96.44 · Non-chase: $24.75 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.1% $306.92 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $113.98 P25 $82.09 · P75 $153.00 Expected value to price ratio: 39.5% $121.20 P10 $58.88 · P90 $192.49
  2. Rank 02 Chaos Rising Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution - Chaos Rising Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 198/198 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $43.96–$92.13 Chase expected value: $54.42 · Non-chase: $10.62 P(any chase): 99.7% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.1% $185.15 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $31.66 P25 $20.60 · P75 $126.64 Expected value to price ratio: 35.1% $65.05 P10 $16.56 · P90 $146.66
  3. Rank 03 Mega Evolution Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 310/310 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $72.72–$155.08 Chase expected value: $94.41 · Non-chase: $11.99 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.8% $303.71 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $54.87 P25 $32.07 · P75 $178.08 Expected value to price ratio: 35.0% $106.40 P10 $22.32 · P90 $236.85
  4. Rank 04 Stellar Crown Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Stellar Crown Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 300/300 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $75.82–$110.51 Chase expected value: $68.36 · Non-chase: $22.32 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $299.66 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $69.64 P25 $46.24 · P75 $125.90 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $90.68 P10 $34.63 · P90 $167.98
  5. Rank 05 Paradox Rift Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paradox Rift Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $64.63–$84.92 Chase expected value: $63.15 · Non-chase: $11.49 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $283.82 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $66.18 P25 $43.23 · P75 $96.59 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $74.65 P10 $29.34 · P90 $131.36
  6. Rank 06 Journey Together Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Journey Together Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 333/333 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $40.79–$58.00 Chase expected value: $34.58 · Non-chase: $15.26 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $192.52 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $41.96 P25 $30.40 · P75 $60.14 Expected value to price ratio: 25.9% $49.84 P10 $23.48 · P90 $84.69
  7. Rank 07 Paldea Evolved Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paldea Evolved Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 455/455 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $93.26–$141.28 Chase expected value: $102.56 · Non-chase: $12.77 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $449.49 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $86.16 P25 $56.03 · P75 $131.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.7% $115.33 P10 $37.03 · P90 $208.99
  8. Rank 08 Twilight Masquerade Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Twilight Masquerade Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 374/374 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $71.47–$102.97 Chase expected value: $72.41 · Non-chase: $13.64 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $339.88 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $67.00 P25 $45.36 · P75 $100.18 Expected value to price ratio: 25.3% $86.06 P10 $33.41 · P90 $154.13
  9. Rank 09 Surging Sparks Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Surging Sparks Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 417/417 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $55.57–$80.77 Chase expected value: $54.46 · Non-chase: $14.02 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $295.27 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $48.77 P25 $33.99 · P75 $71.25 Expected value to price ratio: 23.2% $68.48 P10 $25.00 · P90 $130.94
  10. Rank 10 Scarlet & Violet Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet Base Set Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 451/451 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $56.23–$75.61 Chase expected value: $53.61 · Non-chase: $12.36 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $292.65 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $60.78 P25 $41.22 · P75 $83.89 Expected value to price ratio: 22.5% $65.97 P10 $28.54 · P90 $111.05
  11. Rank 11 Destined Rivals Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Destined Rivals Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 409/409 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $60.38–$101.58 Chase expected value: $65.50 · Non-chase: $11.58 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $403.55 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $51.93 P25 $33.49 · P75 $84.45 Expected value to price ratio: 19.1% $77.08 P10 $23.71 · P90 $157.61
  12. Rank 12 Obsidian Flames Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Obsidian Flames Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 408/408 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $56.23–$74.71 Chase expected value: $48.29 · Non-chase: $15.68 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $362.77 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $57.86 P25 $39.82 · P75 $80.41 Expected value to price ratio: 17.6% $63.96 P10 $28.41 · P90 $111.04
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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