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Pokémon · Obsidian Flames · 36 packs per booster box

Obsidian Flames Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Obsidian Flames Booster Box (36 packs) vs. its $362.77 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 36 packs · 408/408 printings priced · USD Browse Obsidian Flames card values
Cleffa Ninetales Charizard ex

Top chase in Obsidian Flames: Ninetales ($28.23)

Obsidian FlamesSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$63.96Obsidian Flames · 90% credible mean: $56.23–$74.71
Expected value to box price
17.6%Reflective market: $362.77 (2026-10-14) · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0%
Median box (P50)
$57.86P10–P90 spread: $28.41–$111.04 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$48.29 (75.5%)Non-chase floor: $15.68 · P(any chase): 99.8%
Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Obsidian Flames Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (17.6% of reflective market price)Typical (median) box returns $57.86; clearing the $362.77 reflective market price (1.0% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($362.77) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $28.41 (unlucky P10) and $111.04 (lucky P90) 36 packs per booster box · 408/408 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $28.41–$111.04 Typical / Median (P50): $57.86 Expected value (Mean): $63.96 Reflective market price: $362.77

Top chase cards in Obsidian Flames

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Cleffa Cleffa en · Holo · #202 $30.13 ~1 in 4.3 boxes · EV $6.96/box
  2. Ninetales Ninetales en · Holo · #199 $28.23 ~1 in 4.3 boxes · EV $6.52/box
  3. Charizard ex Charizard ex en · Holo · #223 $81.32 ~1 in 14.4 boxes · EV $5.65/box
  4. Charizard ex Charizard ex en · Holo · #215 $18.59 ~1 in 5.0 boxes · EV $3.74/box
  5. Gloom Gloom en · Holo · #198 $15.07 ~1 in 4.3 boxes · EV $3.48/box
  6. Scizor Scizor en · Holo · #205 $11.54 ~1 in 4.3 boxes · EV $2.67/box
  7. Charizard ex Charizard ex en · Holo · #228 $30.14 ~1 in 11.6 boxes · EV $2.60/box
  8. Pidgey Pidgey en · Holo · #207 $10.34 ~1 in 4.3 boxes · EV $2.39/box
  9. Houndour Houndour en · Holo · #204 $9.43 ~1 in 4.3 boxes · EV $2.18/box
  10. Pidgeot ex Pidgeot ex en · Holo · #225 $13.40 ~1 in 14.4 boxes · EV $0.93/box

Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Obsidian Flames Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Illustration Rare Obsidian Flames · 2.77 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $11.39Avg / pulled copy 2.77Copies / box 49.4% $31.58 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Special Illustration Rare Obsidian Flames · 0.42 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $17.82Avg / pulled copy 0.42Copies / box 11.6% $7.44 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Ultra Rare Obsidian Flames · 2.41 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $2.65Avg / pulled copy 2.41Copies / box 10.0% $6.38 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Common Obsidian Flames · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 6.8% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Double Rare Obsidian Flames · 5.15 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.71Avg / pulled copy 5.15Copies / box 5.7% $3.67 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Uncommon Obsidian Flames · 108.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 108.00Copies / box 5.1% $3.24 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Hyper Rare Obsidian Flames · 0.26 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $11.11Avg / pulled copy 0.26Copies / box 4.5% $2.88 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Reverse Holo Uncommon Obsidian Flames · 23.99 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.09Avg / pulled copy 23.99Copies / box 3.5% $2.26 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Reverse Holo Common Obsidian Flames · 34.28 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 34.28Copies / box 1.6% $1.03 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Holo Rare Obsidian Flames · 28.44 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 28.44Copies / box 1.3% $0.85 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Reverse Holo Rare Obsidian Flames · 10.28 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 10.28Copies / box 0.5% $0.31 Expected tier contribution

Obsidian Flames · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Cleffa Obsidian Flames · #202 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 4.3 boxes 1 : 4.3Box odds 0.2310Copies / box $30.13 $6.96 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $30.13
  2. Rank 02 Ninetales Obsidian Flames · #199 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 4.3 boxes 1 : 4.3Box odds 0.2310Copies / box $28.23 $6.52 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $28.23
  3. Rank 03 Charizard ex Obsidian Flames · #223 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 14.4 boxes 1 : 14.4Box odds 0.0696Copies / box $81.32 $5.65 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $81.32
  4. Rank 04 Charizard ex Obsidian Flames · #215 en · Holo Ultra Rare · ~1 in 5.0 boxes 1 : 5.0Box odds 0.2010Copies / box $18.59 $3.74 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $18.59
  5. Rank 05 Gloom Obsidian Flames · #198 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 4.3 boxes 1 : 4.3Box odds 0.2310Copies / box $15.07 $3.48 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $15.07
  6. Rank 06 Scizor Obsidian Flames · #205 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 4.3 boxes 1 : 4.3Box odds 0.2310Copies / box $11.54 $2.67 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $11.54
  7. Rank 07 Charizard ex Obsidian Flames · #228 en · Holo Hyper Rare · ~1 in 11.6 boxes 1 : 11.6Box odds 0.0864Copies / box $30.14 $2.60 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $30.14
  8. Rank 08 Pidgey Obsidian Flames · #207 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 4.3 boxes 1 : 4.3Box odds 0.2310Copies / box $10.34 $2.39 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $10.34
  9. Rank 09 Houndour Obsidian Flames · #204 en · Holo Illustration Rare · ~1 in 4.3 boxes 1 : 4.3Box odds 0.2310Copies / box $9.43 $2.18 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $9.43
  10. Rank 10 Pidgeot ex Obsidian Flames · #225 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 14.4 boxes 1 : 14.4Box odds 0.0696Copies / box $13.40 $0.93 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $13.40
Advanced statistical breakdown for Obsidian Flames (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Obsidian Flames · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Illustration Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 13.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 6.210%–9.390% per pack 2.7720 expected copies per booster box 6.21%–9.39%90% credible / pack 1 : 13.0Packs 7.70% 2.77 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Special Illustration Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 86.2 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.612%–1.853% per pack 0.4176 expected copies per booster box 0.61%–1.85%90% credible / pack 1 : 86.2Packs 1.16% 0.42 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Hyper Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 138.9 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.314%–1.268% per pack 0.2592 expected copies per booster box 0.31%–1.27%90% credible / pack 1 : 138.9Packs 0.72% 0.26 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  4. 04 Ultra Rare Pack slot: Holo-plus · ~1 in 14.9 packs 90% Beta posterior: 5.327%–8.175% per pack 2.4120 expected copies per booster box 5.33%–8.18%90% credible / pack 1 : 14.9Packs 6.70% 2.41 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Obsidian Flames · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Illustration Rare Slot: Reverse Slot 2 · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $48.41 · High expected value: $94.29 $48.41Low scenario $94.29High scenario ±$22.94 $45.88 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Illustration Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $47.72 · High expected value: $79.71 $47.72Low scenario $79.71High scenario ±$16.00 $31.99 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Pull rate: Special Illustration Rare Slot: Reverse Slot 2 · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $60.17 · High expected value: $70.78 $60.17Low scenario $70.78High scenario ±$5.31 $10.61 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Pull rate: Ultra Rare Slot: Holo Plus · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $60.68 · High expected value: $69.75 $60.68Low scenario $69.75High scenario ±$4.54 $9.07 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Ultra Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $59.84 · High expected value: $67.59 $59.84Low scenario $67.59High scenario ±$3.88 $7.75 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Special Illustration Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $59.93 · High expected value: $67.48 $59.93Low scenario $67.48High scenario ±$3.78 $7.55 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Obsidian Flames
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • The Pokémon Company International does not publish official pull rates; slot weights use TCGplayer multi-thousand-pack empirical opening benchmarks.
  • Card prices resolve from FoilFox printing-level TCGdex normal/holofoil/reverse observations when variant-level observations are absent.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Obsidian Flames Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Obsidian Flames packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Obsidian Flames → · View Obsidian Flames card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Set artwork Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Temporal Forces Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Temporal Forces Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 360/360 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $106.94–$136.71 Chase expected value: $96.44 · Non-chase: $24.75 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.1% $306.92 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $113.98 P25 $82.09 · P75 $153.00 Expected value to price ratio: 39.5% $121.20 P10 $58.88 · P90 $192.49
  2. Rank 02 Chaos Rising Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution - Chaos Rising Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 198/198 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $43.96–$92.13 Chase expected value: $54.42 · Non-chase: $10.62 P(any chase): 99.7% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.1% $185.15 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $31.66 P25 $20.60 · P75 $126.64 Expected value to price ratio: 35.1% $65.05 P10 $16.56 · P90 $146.66
  3. Rank 03 Mega Evolution Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 310/310 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $72.72–$155.08 Chase expected value: $94.41 · Non-chase: $11.99 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.8% $303.71 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $54.87 P25 $32.07 · P75 $178.08 Expected value to price ratio: 35.0% $106.40 P10 $22.32 · P90 $236.85
  4. Rank 04 Stellar Crown Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Stellar Crown Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 300/300 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $75.82–$110.51 Chase expected value: $68.36 · Non-chase: $22.32 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $299.66 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $69.64 P25 $46.24 · P75 $125.90 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $90.68 P10 $34.63 · P90 $167.98
  5. Rank 05 Paradox Rift Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paradox Rift Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $64.63–$84.92 Chase expected value: $63.15 · Non-chase: $11.49 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $283.82 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $66.18 P25 $43.23 · P75 $96.59 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $74.65 P10 $29.34 · P90 $131.36
  6. Rank 06 Journey Together Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Journey Together Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 333/333 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $40.79–$58.00 Chase expected value: $34.58 · Non-chase: $15.26 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $192.52 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $41.96 P25 $30.40 · P75 $60.14 Expected value to price ratio: 25.9% $49.84 P10 $23.48 · P90 $84.69
  7. Rank 07 Paldea Evolved Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paldea Evolved Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 455/455 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $93.26–$141.28 Chase expected value: $102.56 · Non-chase: $12.77 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $449.49 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $86.16 P25 $56.03 · P75 $131.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.7% $115.33 P10 $37.03 · P90 $208.99
  8. Rank 08 Twilight Masquerade Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Twilight Masquerade Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 374/374 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $71.47–$102.97 Chase expected value: $72.41 · Non-chase: $13.64 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $339.88 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $67.00 P25 $45.36 · P75 $100.18 Expected value to price ratio: 25.3% $86.06 P10 $33.41 · P90 $154.13
  9. Rank 09 Surging Sparks Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Surging Sparks Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 417/417 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $55.57–$80.77 Chase expected value: $54.46 · Non-chase: $14.02 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $295.27 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $48.77 P25 $33.99 · P75 $71.25 Expected value to price ratio: 23.2% $68.48 P10 $25.00 · P90 $130.94
  10. Rank 10 Scarlet & Violet Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet Base Set Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 451/451 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $56.23–$75.61 Chase expected value: $53.61 · Non-chase: $12.36 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $292.65 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $60.78 P25 $41.22 · P75 $83.89 Expected value to price ratio: 22.5% $65.97 P10 $28.54 · P90 $111.05
  11. Rank 11 Destined Rivals Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Destined Rivals Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 409/409 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $60.38–$101.58 Chase expected value: $65.50 · Non-chase: $11.58 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $403.55 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $51.93 P25 $33.49 · P75 $84.45 Expected value to price ratio: 19.1% $77.08 P10 $23.71 · P90 $157.61
  12. Rank 12 Obsidian Flames Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Obsidian Flames Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 408/408 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $56.23–$74.71 Chase expected value: $48.29 · Non-chase: $15.68 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $362.77 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $57.86 P25 $39.82 · P75 $80.41 Expected value to price ratio: 17.6% $63.96 P10 $28.41 · P90 $111.04
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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