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Pokémon · Mega Evolution · 36 packs per booster box

Mega Evolution Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution Booster Box (36 packs) vs. its $303.71 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 36 packs · 310/310 printings priced · USD Browse Mega Evolution card values
Mega Lucario ex Mega Gardevoir ex Mega Gardevoir ex

Top chase in Mega Evolution: Mega Gardevoir ex ($148.04)

Mega EvolutionSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$106.40Mega Evolution · 90% credible mean: $72.72–$155.08
Expected value to box price
35.0%Reflective market: $303.71 (2026-10-14) · P(box ≥ cost): 5.8%
Median box (P50)
$54.87P10–P90 spread: $22.32–$236.85 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$94.41 (88.7%)Non-chase floor: $11.99 · P(any chase): 99.8%
Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (35.0% of reflective market price)Typical (median) box returns $54.87; clearing the $303.71 reflective market price (5.8% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($303.71) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $22.32 (unlucky P10) and $236.85 (lucky P90) 36 packs per booster box · 310/310 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $22.32–$236.85 Typical / Median (P50): $54.87 Expected value (Mean): $106.40 Reflective market price: $303.71

Top chase cards in Mega Evolution

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Mega Lucario ex Mega Lucario ex en · Holo · #188 $196.58 ~1 in 7.7 boxes · EV $25.48/box
  2. Mega Gardevoir ex Mega Gardevoir ex en · Holo · #187 $148.04 ~1 in 7.7 boxes · EV $19.18/box
  3. Mega Gardevoir ex Mega Gardevoir ex en · Holo · #178 $147.46 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $6.16/box
  4. Mega Lucario ex Mega Lucario ex en · Holo · #179 $147.13 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $6.14/box
  5. Mega Venusaur ex Mega Venusaur ex en · Holo · #177 $118.32 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $4.94/box
  6. Mega Latias ex Mega Latias ex en · Holo · #181 $62.05 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $2.59/box
  7. Mega Kangaskhan ex Mega Kangaskhan ex en · Holo · #182 $45.42 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $1.90/box
  8. Lillie's Determination Lillie's Determination en · Holo · #184 $44.73 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $1.87/box
  9. Mega Absol ex Mega Absol ex en · Holo · #180 $42.08 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $1.76/box
  10. Acerola's Mischief Acerola's Mischief en · Holo · #183 $23.45 ~1 in 23.9 boxes · EV $0.98/box

Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Hyper Rare Mega Evolution · 0.26 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $172.30Avg / pulled copy 0.26Copies / box 42.0% $44.66 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Special Illustration Rare Mega Evolution · 0.42 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $66.12Avg / pulled copy 0.42Copies / box 25.9% $27.61 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Illustration Rare Mega Evolution · 2.77 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $4.67Avg / pulled copy 2.77Copies / box 12.2% $12.94 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Ultra Rare Mega Evolution · 2.41 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $3.81Avg / pulled copy 2.41Copies / box 8.6% $9.19 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Common Mega Evolution · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 4.1% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Uncommon Mega Evolution · 108.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 108.00Copies / box 3.0% $3.24 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Reverse Holo Uncommon Mega Evolution · 23.99 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.05Avg / pulled copy 23.99Copies / box 1.1% $1.13 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Double Rare Mega Evolution · 5.15 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.22Avg / pulled copy 5.15Copies / box 1.0% $1.11 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Reverse Holo Common Mega Evolution · 34.28 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 34.28Copies / box 1.0% $1.03 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Holo Rare Mega Evolution · 28.44 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 28.44Copies / box 0.8% $0.85 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Reverse Holo Rare Mega Evolution · 10.28 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 10.28Copies / box 0.3% $0.31 Expected tier contribution

Mega Evolution · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Mega Lucario ex Mega Evolution · #188 en · Holo Hyper Rare · ~1 in 7.7 boxes 1 : 7.7Box odds 0.1296Copies / box $196.58 $25.48 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $196.58
  2. Rank 02 Mega Gardevoir ex Mega Evolution · #187 en · Holo Hyper Rare · ~1 in 7.7 boxes 1 : 7.7Box odds 0.1296Copies / box $148.04 $19.18 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $148.04
  3. Rank 03 Mega Gardevoir ex Mega Evolution · #178 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $147.46 $6.16 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $147.46
  4. Rank 04 Mega Lucario ex Mega Evolution · #179 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $147.13 $6.14 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $147.13
  5. Rank 05 Mega Venusaur ex Mega Evolution · #177 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $118.32 $4.94 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $118.32
  6. Rank 06 Mega Latias ex Mega Evolution · #181 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $62.05 $2.59 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $62.05
  7. Rank 07 Mega Kangaskhan ex Mega Evolution · #182 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $45.42 $1.90 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $45.42
  8. Rank 08 Lillie's Determination Mega Evolution · #184 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $44.73 $1.87 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $44.73
  9. Rank 09 Mega Absol ex Mega Evolution · #180 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $42.08 $1.76 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $42.08
  10. Rank 10 Acerola's Mischief Mega Evolution · #183 en · Holo Special Illustration Rare · ~1 in 23.9 boxes 1 : 23.9Box odds 0.0418Copies / box $23.45 $0.98 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $23.45
Advanced statistical breakdown for Mega Evolution (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Mega Evolution · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Illustration Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 13.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 6.210%–9.390% per pack 2.7720 expected copies per booster box 6.21%–9.39%90% credible / pack 1 : 13.0Packs 7.70% 2.77 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Special Illustration Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 86.2 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.612%–1.853% per pack 0.4176 expected copies per booster box 0.61%–1.85%90% credible / pack 1 : 86.2Packs 1.16% 0.42 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Hyper Rare Pack slot: Reverse-slot-2 · ~1 in 138.9 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.314%–1.268% per pack 0.2592 expected copies per booster box 0.31%–1.27%90% credible / pack 1 : 138.9Packs 0.72% 0.26 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  4. 04 Ultra Rare Pack slot: Holo-plus · ~1 in 14.9 packs 90% Beta posterior: 5.327%–8.175% per pack 2.4120 expected copies per booster box 5.33%–8.18%90% credible / pack 1 : 14.9Packs 6.70% 2.41 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Mega Evolution · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Hyper Rare Slot: Reverse Slot 2 · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $84.48 · High expected value: $151.59 $84.48Low scenario $151.59High scenario ±$33.56 $67.11 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Hyper Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $84.31 · High expected value: $129.39 $84.31Low scenario $129.39High scenario ±$22.54 $45.08 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Pull rate: Special Illustration Rare Slot: Reverse Slot 2 · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $93.35 · High expected value: $133.84 $93.35Low scenario $133.84High scenario ±$20.25 $40.49 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Special Illustration Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $92.98 · High expected value: $120.73 $92.98Low scenario $120.73High scenario ±$13.88 $27.75 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Pull rate: Ultra Rare Slot: Holo Plus · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $102.32 · High expected value: $115.90 $102.32Low scenario $115.90High scenario ±$6.79 $13.58 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Illustration Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $99.98 · High expected value: $113.54 $99.98Low scenario $113.54High scenario ±$6.78 $13.56 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Mega Evolution
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • The Pokémon Company International does not publish official pull rates; slot weights use TCGplayer multi-thousand-pack empirical opening benchmarks.
  • Card prices resolve from FoilFox printing-level TCGdex normal/holofoil/reverse observations when variant-level observations are absent.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Mega Evolution Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Mega Evolution packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Mega Evolution → · View Mega Evolution card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Set artwork Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Temporal Forces Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Temporal Forces Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 360/360 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $106.94–$136.71 Chase expected value: $96.44 · Non-chase: $24.75 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.1% $306.92 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $113.98 P25 $82.09 · P75 $153.00 Expected value to price ratio: 39.5% $121.20 P10 $58.88 · P90 $192.49
  2. Rank 02 Chaos Rising Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution - Chaos Rising Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 198/198 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $43.96–$92.13 Chase expected value: $54.42 · Non-chase: $10.62 P(any chase): 99.7% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.1% $185.15 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $31.66 P25 $20.60 · P75 $126.64 Expected value to price ratio: 35.1% $65.05 P10 $16.56 · P90 $146.66
  3. Rank 03 Mega Evolution Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 310/310 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $72.72–$155.08 Chase expected value: $94.41 · Non-chase: $11.99 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 5.8% $303.71 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $54.87 P25 $32.07 · P75 $178.08 Expected value to price ratio: 35.0% $106.40 P10 $22.32 · P90 $236.85
  4. Rank 04 Stellar Crown Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Stellar Crown Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 300/300 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $75.82–$110.51 Chase expected value: $68.36 · Non-chase: $22.32 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $299.66 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $69.64 P25 $46.24 · P75 $125.90 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $90.68 P10 $34.63 · P90 $167.98
  5. Rank 05 Paradox Rift Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paradox Rift Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $64.63–$84.92 Chase expected value: $63.15 · Non-chase: $11.49 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $283.82 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $66.18 P25 $43.23 · P75 $96.59 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $74.65 P10 $29.34 · P90 $131.36
  6. Rank 06 Journey Together Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Journey Together Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 333/333 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $40.79–$58.00 Chase expected value: $34.58 · Non-chase: $15.26 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $192.52 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $41.96 P25 $30.40 · P75 $60.14 Expected value to price ratio: 25.9% $49.84 P10 $23.48 · P90 $84.69
  7. Rank 07 Paldea Evolved Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Paldea Evolved Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 455/455 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $93.26–$141.28 Chase expected value: $102.56 · Non-chase: $12.77 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $449.49 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $86.16 P25 $56.03 · P75 $131.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.7% $115.33 P10 $37.03 · P90 $208.99
  8. Rank 08 Twilight Masquerade Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Twilight Masquerade Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 374/374 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $71.47–$102.97 Chase expected value: $72.41 · Non-chase: $13.64 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $339.88 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $67.00 P25 $45.36 · P75 $100.18 Expected value to price ratio: 25.3% $86.06 P10 $33.41 · P90 $154.13
  9. Rank 09 Surging Sparks Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Surging Sparks Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 417/417 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $55.57–$80.77 Chase expected value: $54.46 · Non-chase: $14.02 P(any chase): 100.0% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $295.27 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $48.77 P25 $33.99 · P75 $71.25 Expected value to price ratio: 23.2% $68.48 P10 $25.00 · P90 $130.94
  10. Rank 10 Scarlet & Violet Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet Base Set Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 451/451 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $56.23–$75.61 Chase expected value: $53.61 · Non-chase: $12.36 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $292.65 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $60.78 P25 $41.22 · P75 $83.89 Expected value to price ratio: 22.5% $65.97 P10 $28.54 · P90 $111.05
  11. Rank 11 Destined Rivals Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Destined Rivals Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 409/409 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $60.38–$101.58 Chase expected value: $65.50 · Non-chase: $11.58 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $403.55 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $51.93 P25 $33.49 · P75 $84.45 Expected value to price ratio: 19.1% $77.08 P10 $23.71 · P90 $157.61
  12. Rank 12 Obsidian Flames Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet - Obsidian Flames Booster Box · 36 packs per booster box · 408/408 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $56.23–$74.71 Chase expected value: $48.29 · Non-chase: $15.68 P(any chase): 99.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $362.77 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $57.86 P25 $39.82 · P75 $80.41 Expected value to price ratio: 17.6% $63.96 P10 $28.41 · P90 $111.04
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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