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Disney Lorcana · Winterspell · 24 packs per booster box

Winterspell Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box (24 packs) vs. its $256.98 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 24 packs · 446/446 printings priced · USD Browse Winterspell card values
Moana - Curious Explorer Elsa - Ice Artisan Pocahontas - Peacekeeper

Top chase in Winterspell: Elsa - Ice Artisan ($619.24)

WinterspellSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$130.51Winterspell · 90% credible mean: $108.40–$161.23
Expected value to box price
50.8%Reflective market: $256.98 (2026-10-14) · P(box ≥ cost): 7.8%
Median box (P50)
$93.50P10–P90 spread: $55.62–$223.88 (20,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$53.30 (40.8%)Non-chase floor: $77.20 · P(any chase): 82.8%
Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (50.8% of reflective market price)Typical (median) box returns $93.50; clearing the $256.98 reflective market price (7.8% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($256.98) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $55.62 (unlucky P10) and $223.88 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $55.62–$223.88 Typical / Median (P50): $93.50 Expected value (Mean): $130.51 Reflective market price: $256.98

Top chase cards in Winterspell

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Moana - Curious Explorer Moana - Curious Explorer Holofoil · #242 $1,079.56 ~1 in 212.3 boxes · EV $5.08/box
  2. Elsa - Ice Artisan Elsa - Ice Artisan Holofoil · #233 $619.24 ~1 in 126.3 boxes · EV $4.90/box
  3. Pocahontas - Peacekeeper Pocahontas - Peacekeeper Holofoil · #241 $918.84 ~1 in 212.3 boxes · EV $4.33/box
  4. Eeyore - In the Way Eeyore - In the Way Holofoil · #226 $476.66 ~1 in 126.3 boxes · EV $3.77/box
  5. Ohana Means Family Ohana Means Family Holofoil · #224 $349.76 ~1 in 126.3 boxes · EV $2.77/box
  6. Angel - Experiment 624 Angel - Experiment 624 Holofoil · #238 $245.62 ~1 in 126.3 boxes · EV $1.94/box
  7. The Cold Never Bothered Me The Cold Never Bothered Me Holofoil · #234 $229.45 ~1 in 126.3 boxes · EV $1.82/box
  8. Anna - Soothing Sister Anna - Soothing Sister Holofoil · #227 $229.20 ~1 in 126.3 boxes · EV $1.81/box
  9. Raging Storm Raging Storm Holofoil · #225 $215.32 ~1 in 126.3 boxes · EV $1.70/box
  10. Belle - Snowfield Strategist Belle - Snowfield Strategist Holofoil · #236 $198.68 ~1 in 126.3 boxes · EV $1.57/box

Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Winterspell · 0.14 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $210.69Avg / pulled copy 0.14Copies / box 23.0% $30.02 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Legendary Winterspell · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $7.28Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 22.2% $28.97 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Epic Winterspell · 1.54 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $8.99Avg / pulled copy 1.54Copies / box 10.6% $13.87 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Cold Foil Legendary Winterspell · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $13.13Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 7.6% $9.88 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Rare Winterspell · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.30Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 7.4% $9.63 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Iconic Winterspell · 0.0094 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $998.98Avg / pulled copy 0.009Copies / box 7.2% $9.41 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Super Rare Winterspell · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.69Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 6.0% $7.86 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Uncommon Winterspell · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.08Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 4.2% $5.51 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Common Winterspell · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 3.3% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Uncommon Winterspell · 5.36 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.70Avg / pulled copy 5.36Copies / box 2.9% $3.77 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Cold Foil Super Rare Winterspell · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $2.94Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 2.8% $3.62 Expected tier contribution
  12. Tier 12 Cold Foil Rare Winterspell · 3.35 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.92Avg / pulled copy 3.35Copies / box 2.4% $3.09 Expected tier contribution
  13. Tier 13 Cold Foil Common Winterspell · 11.61 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.05Avg / pulled copy 11.61Copies / box 0.4% $0.56 Expected tier contribution

Winterspell · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Moana - Curious Explorer Winterspell · #242 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 212.3 boxes 1 : 212.3Box odds 0.0047Copies / box $1,079.56 $5.08 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $1,079.56
  2. Rank 02 Elsa - Ice Artisan Winterspell · #233 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 126.3 boxes 1 : 126.3Box odds 0.0079Copies / box $619.24 $4.90 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $619.24
  3. Rank 03 Pocahontas - Peacekeeper Winterspell · #241 Holofoil Iconic · ~1 in 212.3 boxes 1 : 212.3Box odds 0.0047Copies / box $918.84 $4.33 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $918.84
  4. Rank 04 Eeyore - In the Way Winterspell · #226 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 126.3 boxes 1 : 126.3Box odds 0.0079Copies / box $476.66 $3.77 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $476.66
  5. Rank 05 Ohana Means Family Winterspell · #224 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 126.3 boxes 1 : 126.3Box odds 0.0079Copies / box $349.76 $2.77 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $349.76
  6. Rank 06 Angel - Experiment 624 Winterspell · #238 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 126.3 boxes 1 : 126.3Box odds 0.0079Copies / box $245.62 $1.94 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $245.62
  7. Rank 07 The Cold Never Bothered Me Winterspell · #234 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 126.3 boxes 1 : 126.3Box odds 0.0079Copies / box $229.45 $1.82 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $229.45
  8. Rank 08 Anna - Soothing Sister Winterspell · #227 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 126.3 boxes 1 : 126.3Box odds 0.0079Copies / box $229.20 $1.81 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $229.20
  9. Rank 09 Raging Storm Winterspell · #225 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 126.3 boxes 1 : 126.3Box odds 0.0079Copies / box $215.32 $1.70 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $215.32
  10. Rank 10 Belle - Snowfield Strategist Winterspell · #236 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 126.3 boxes 1 : 126.3Box odds 0.0079Copies / box $198.68 $1.57 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $198.68
Advanced statistical breakdown for Winterspell (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Winterspell · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Epic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 15.6 packs 90% Beta posterior: 5.311%–7.643% per pack 1.5431 expected copies per booster box 5.31%–7.64%90% credible / pack 1 : 15.6Packs 6.41% 1.54 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  2. 02 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 168.4 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.310%–0.948% per pack 0.1425 expected copies per booster box 0.31%–0.95%90% credible / pack 1 : 168.4Packs 0.59% 0.14 / box Posterior mean per booster box
  3. 03 Iconic Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 2547.9 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.002%–0.115% per pack 0.0094 expected copies per booster box 0.00%–0.12%90% credible / pack 1 : 2547.9Packs 0.04% 0.01 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Winterspell · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $115.63 · High expected value: $160.27 $115.63Low scenario $160.27High scenario ±$22.32 $44.64 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $115.23 · High expected value: $145.30 $115.23Low scenario $145.30High scenario ±$15.04 $30.07 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $115.49 · High expected value: $145.53 $115.49Low scenario $145.53High scenario ±$15.02 $30.04 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Pull rate: Epic Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $125.65 · High expected value: $140.23 $125.65Low scenario $140.23High scenario ±$7.29 $14.58 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Epic Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $123.46 · High expected value: $137.56 $123.46Low scenario $137.56High scenario ±$7.05 $14.10 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Pull rate: Iconic Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $125.81 · High expected value: $139.89 $125.81Low scenario $139.89High scenario ±$7.04 $14.08 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Winterspell
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no rarity odds. Ordinary rates come from one store's 1,056-pack sample; chase rates are community priors updated by that sample.
  • Epic, Enchanted and Iconic are assumed to occupy the foil slot. If Epic instead replaces a Rare-or-better slot the mean barely changes but the foil mix does.
  • Common and Uncommon cold foils were not counted for Winterspell; their split uses a First Chapter box as a proxy.
  • A 960-pack Reddit comment (2 Iconic, 8 Enchanted, 62 Epic) is deliberately excluded: comments volunteering big hits are a self-selected sample.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; no per-card print-sheet weights are published.
  • Draws are treated as independent; per-box or per-case guarantees are not modeled.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Winterspell Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Winterspell packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Winterspell → · View Winterspell card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Set artwork Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $101.58–$186.13 Chase expected value: $67.46 · Non-chase: $68.95 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.4% $238.68 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $87.37 P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54 Expected value to price ratio: 57.2% $136.41 P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
  2. Rank 02 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.40–$161.23 Chase expected value: $53.30 · Non-chase: $77.20 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 7.8% $256.98 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $93.50 P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11 Expected value to price ratio: 50.8% $130.51 P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
  3. Rank 03 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $50.74–$133.20 Chase expected value: $67.65 · Non-chase: $21.39 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2% $195.81 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $26.86 P25 $20.74 · P75 $43.30 Expected value to price ratio: 45.5% $89.05 P10 $16.99 · P90 $174.86
  4. Rank 04 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.23–$173.13 Chase expected value: $62.19 · Non-chase: $29.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $228.25 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $36.33 P25 $28.56 · P75 $56.08 Expected value to price ratio: 40.2% $91.81 P10 $22.51 · P90 $119.15
  5. Rank 05 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $33.38–$87.01 Chase expected value: $36.86 · Non-chase: $19.76 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 11.3% $154.69 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $20.52 P25 $15.93 · P75 $38.98 Expected value to price ratio: 36.6% $56.62 P10 $13.25 · P90 $165.52
  6. Rank 06 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.83–$66.14 Chase expected value: $27.28 · Non-chase: $19.20 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 6.4% $144.58 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $19.99 P25 $14.97 · P75 $42.72 Expected value to price ratio: 32.1% $46.48 P10 $12.44 · P90 $116.42
  7. Rank 07 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $162.91–$353.67 Chase expected value: $162.34 · Non-chase: $87.42 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $826.00 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $123.27 P25 $86.58 · P75 $211.71 Expected value to price ratio: 30.2% $249.76 P10 $62.85 · P90 $506.86
  8. Rank 08 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $25.87–$47.23 Chase expected value: $15.15 · Non-chase: $20.03 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.3% $120.09 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $21.35 P25 $15.77 · P75 $38.85 Expected value to price ratio: 29.3% $35.18 P10 $12.87 · P90 $87.21
  9. Rank 09 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.51–$180.51 Chase expected value: $56.10 · Non-chase: $72.90 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $461.52 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $80.82 P25 $51.80 · P75 $154.75 Expected value to price ratio: 28.0% $129.01 P10 $36.10 · P90 $267.43
  10. Rank 10 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.60–$40.26 Chase expected value: $14.01 · Non-chase: $17.17 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $117.80 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $18.54 P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.11 Expected value to price ratio: 26.5% $31.19 P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.45
  11. Rank 11 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $32.70–$60.11 Chase expected value: $18.48 · Non-chase: $25.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $170.73 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $27.97 P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.9% $44.25 P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
  12. Rank 12 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.38–$46.03 Chase expected value: $18.31 · Non-chase: $14.24 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $142.65 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $15.21 P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42 Expected value to price ratio: 22.8% $32.56 P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
  13. Rank 13 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $19.93–$40.99 Chase expected value: $14.65 · Non-chase: $13.65 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 1.0% $127.81 TCGplayer · 2026-10-14 $13.36 P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.36 Expected value to price ratio: 22.1% $28.30 P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.40
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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