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Disney Lorcana · The First Chapter · 24 packs per booster box

The First Chapter Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box (24 packs) vs. its $490.22 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 24 packs · 420/420 printings priced · USD Browse The First Chapter card values
Elsa - Spirit of Winter Mickey Mouse - Wayward Sorcerer Stitch - Carefree Surfer

Top chase: Mickey Mouse - Wayward Sorcerer ($297.78) · The First Chapter

The First ChapterSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$128.99The First Chapter · 90% credible mean: $94.50–$180.48
Expected value to box price
26.3%Reflective market: $490.22 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 2.5%
Median box (P50)
$80.81P10–P90 spread: $36.09–$267.39 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$56.08 (43.5%)Non-chase floor: $72.90 · P(any chase): 23.6%
Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (26.3% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $80.81; clearing the $490.22 reflective market price (2.5% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($490.22) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $36.09 (unlucky P10) and $267.39 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $36.09–$267.39 Typical / Median (P50): $80.81 Expected value (Mean): $128.99 Box price: $490.22

Top chase cards in The First Chapter

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Elsa - Spirit of Winter Elsa - Spirit of Winter Holofoil · #207 $826.44 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $17.22/box
  2. Mickey Mouse - Wayward Sorcerer Mickey Mouse - Wayward Sorcerer Holofoil · #208 $297.78 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $6.20/box
  3. Stitch - Carefree Surfer Stitch - Carefree Surfer Holofoil · #206 $224.71 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $4.68/box
  4. Simba - Returned King Simba - Returned King Holofoil · #215 $192.53 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $4.01/box
  5. Mickey Mouse - Artful Rogue Mickey Mouse - Artful Rogue Holofoil · #210 $175.99 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $3.67/box
  6. Belle - Strange but Special Belle - Strange but Special Holofoil · #214 $172.26 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $3.59/box
  7. Tinker Bell - Giant Fairy Tinker Bell - Giant Fairy Holofoil · #216 $168.34 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $3.51/box
  8. Aurora - Dreaming Guardian Aurora - Dreaming Guardian Holofoil · #213 $162.66 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $3.39/box
  9. Genie - On the Job Genie - On the Job Holofoil · #209 $131.41 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $2.74/box
  10. Maui - Hero to All Maui - Hero to All Holofoil · #212 $118.83 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $2.48/box

Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted The First Chapter · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $224.32Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 43.5% $56.08 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Cold Foil Legendary The First Chapter · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $32.80Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 19.1% $24.60 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Legendary The First Chapter · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $5.65Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 17.4% $22.46 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Rare The First Chapter · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.14Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 3.6% $4.64 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Cold Foil Super Rare The First Chapter · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $3.67Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 3.5% $4.51 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Common The First Chapter · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 3.3% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Cold Foil Rare The First Chapter · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.27Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 3.3% $4.25 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Super Rare The First Chapter · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.34Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 3.0% $3.87 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Uncommon The First Chapter · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 1.7% $2.16 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Uncommon The First Chapter · 5.83 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.25Avg / pulled copy 5.83Copies / box 1.1% $1.44 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Cold Foil Common The First Chapter · 12.61 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.05Avg / pulled copy 12.61Copies / box 0.5% $0.65 Expected tier contribution

The First Chapter · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Elsa - Spirit of Winter The First Chapter · #207 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $826.44 $17.22 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $826.44
  2. Rank 02 Mickey Mouse - Wayward Sorcerer The First Chapter · #208 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $297.78 $6.20 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $297.78
  3. Rank 03 Stitch - Carefree Surfer The First Chapter · #206 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $224.71 $4.68 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $224.71
  4. Rank 04 Simba - Returned King The First Chapter · #215 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $192.53 $4.01 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $192.53
  5. Rank 05 Mickey Mouse - Artful Rogue The First Chapter · #210 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $175.99 $3.67 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $175.99
  6. Rank 06 Belle - Strange but Special The First Chapter · #214 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $172.26 $3.59 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $172.26
  7. Rank 07 Tinker Bell - Giant Fairy The First Chapter · #216 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $168.34 $3.51 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $168.34
  8. Rank 08 Aurora - Dreaming Guardian The First Chapter · #213 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $162.66 $3.39 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $162.66
  9. Rank 09 Genie - On the Job The First Chapter · #209 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $131.41 $2.74 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $131.41
  10. Rank 10 Maui - Hero to All The First Chapter · #212 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $118.83 $2.48 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $118.83
Advanced statistical breakdown for The First Chapter (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

The First Chapter · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.406%–1.921% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.92%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box

The First Chapter · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $101.13 · High expected value: $184.69 $101.13Low scenario $184.69High scenario ±$41.78 $83.56 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $100.93 · High expected value: $157.05 $100.93Low scenario $157.05High scenario ±$28.06 $56.12 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Cold Foil Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $116.63 · High expected value: $141.35 $116.63Low scenario $141.35High scenario ±$12.36 $24.72 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $116.86 · High expected value: $140.79 $116.86Low scenario $140.79High scenario ±$11.97 $23.93 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Cold Foil Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $126.30 · High expected value: $132.20 $126.30Low scenario $132.20High scenario ±$2.95 $5.90 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $126.79 · High expected value: $132.42 $126.79Low scenario $132.42High scenario ±$2.82 $5.63 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for The First Chapter
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy The First Chapter Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop The First Chapter packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in The First Chapter → · View The First Chapter card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $101.58–$186.13 Chase expected value: $67.46 · Non-chase: $68.95 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.2% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $87.37 P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54 Expected value to price ratio: 57.3% $136.41 P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
  2. Rank 02 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.40–$161.23 Chase expected value: $53.30 · Non-chase: $77.20 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.1% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $93.50 P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11 Expected value to price ratio: 49.1% $130.51 P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
  3. Rank 03 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $50.77–$133.27 Chase expected value: $67.70 · Non-chase: $21.39 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $26.88 P25 $20.75 · P75 $43.32 Expected value to price ratio: 47.2% $89.10 P10 $17.00 · P90 $174.96
  4. Rank 04 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.32–$173.45 Chase expected value: $62.36 · Non-chase: $29.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.6% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.40 P25 $28.61 · P75 $56.18 Expected value to price ratio: 38.8% $91.98 P10 $22.55 · P90 $119.37
  5. Rank 05 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $33.36–$86.95 Chase expected value: $36.82 · Non-chase: $19.76 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $20.51 P25 $15.92 · P75 $38.95 Expected value to price ratio: 37.3% $56.58 P10 $13.24 · P90 $165.40
  6. Rank 06 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.78–$66.03 Chase expected value: $27.20 · Non-chase: $19.20 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.8% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $19.96 P25 $14.94 · P75 $42.65 Expected value to price ratio: 34.9% $46.40 P10 $12.42 · P90 $116.22
  7. Rank 07 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $162.94–$353.73 Chase expected value: $162.38 · Non-chase: $87.42 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.29 P25 $86.59 · P75 $211.74 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $249.80 P10 $62.86 · P90 $506.94
  8. Rank 08 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $25.86–$47.20 Chase expected value: $15.13 · Non-chase: $20.03 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $21.34 P25 $15.76 · P75 $38.83 Expected value to price ratio: 28.0% $35.16 P10 $12.86 · P90 $87.16
  9. Rank 09 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.61–$40.27 Chase expected value: $14.02 · Non-chase: $17.17 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.8% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $18.55 P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.12 Expected value to price ratio: 26.4% $31.20 P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.47
  10. Rank 10 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.50–$180.48 Chase expected value: $56.08 · Non-chase: $72.90 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.5% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $80.81 P25 $51.79 · P75 $154.73 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $128.99 P10 $36.09 · P90 $267.39
  11. Rank 11 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $32.70–$60.11 Chase expected value: $18.48 · Non-chase: $25.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.0% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $27.97 P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.8% $44.25 P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
  12. Rank 12 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.38–$46.03 Chase expected value: $18.31 · Non-chase: $14.24 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.8% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $15.21 P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42 Expected value to price ratio: 23.1% $32.56 P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
  13. Rank 13 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $19.94–$41.00 Chase expected value: $14.66 · Non-chase: $13.65 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.7% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $13.36 P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.37 Expected value to price ratio: 22.4% $28.31 P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.43
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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