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Disney Lorcana · Rise of the Floodborn · 24 packs per booster box

Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box (24 packs) vs. its $171.63 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 24 packs · 420/420 printings priced · USD Browse Rise of the Floodborn card values
Cinderella - Ballroom Sensation Alice - Growing Girl Snow White - Well Wisher

Top chase: Alice - Growing Girl ($141.12) · Rise of the Floodborn

Rise of the FloodbornSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$44.25Rise of the Floodborn · 90% credible mean: $32.70–$60.11
Expected value to box price
25.8%Reflective market: $171.63 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 3.0%
Median box (P50)
$27.97P10–P90 spread: $16.00–$84.88 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$18.48 (41.8%)Non-chase floor: $25.77 · P(any chase): 23.6%
Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (25.8% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $27.97; clearing the $171.63 reflective market price (3.0% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($171.63) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $16.00 (unlucky P10) and $84.88 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $16.00–$84.88 Typical / Median (P50): $27.97 Expected value (Mean): $44.25 Box price: $171.63

Top chase cards in Rise of the Floodborn

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Cinderella - Ballroom Sensation Cinderella - Ballroom Sensation Holofoil · #205 $230.16 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $4.80/box
  2. Alice - Growing Girl Alice - Growing Girl Holofoil · #213 $141.12 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $2.94/box
  3. Snow White - Well Wisher Snow White - Well Wisher Holofoil · #206 $118.12 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $2.46/box
  4. Beast - Relentless Beast - Relentless Holofoil · #210 $62.41 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $1.30/box
  5. Hercules - Divine Hero Hercules - Divine Hero Holofoil · #215 $53.18 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $1.11/box
  6. Shere Khan - Menacing Predator Shere Khan - Menacing Predator Holofoil · #212 $49.53 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $1.03/box
  7. Sisu - Divine Water Dragon Sisu - Divine Water Dragon Holofoil · #214 $44.35 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $0.92/box
  8. Lady Tremaine - Imperious Queen Lady Tremaine - Imperious Queen Holofoil · #211 $41.66 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $0.87/box
  9. Pete - Bad Guy Pete - Bad Guy Holofoil · #209 $40.52 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $0.84/box
  10. Madam Mim - Purple Dragon Madam Mim - Purple Dragon Holofoil · #208 $36.76 ~1 in 48.0 boxes · EV $0.77/box

Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Rise of the Floodborn · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $73.92Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 41.8% $18.48 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Cold Foil Legendary Rise of the Floodborn · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $7.48Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 12.7% $5.61 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Legendary Rise of the Floodborn · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.24Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 11.1% $4.92 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Common Rise of the Floodborn · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 9.8% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Rare Rise of the Floodborn · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.12Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 8.8% $3.91 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Cold Foil Rare Rise of the Floodborn · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.72Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 5.5% $2.42 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Uncommon Rise of the Floodborn · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 4.9% $2.16 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Cold Foil Common Rise of the Floodborn · 12.61 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.09Avg / pulled copy 12.61Copies / box 2.7% $1.19 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Cold Foil Super Rare Rise of the Floodborn · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.45Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 1.2% $0.55 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Uncommon Rise of the Floodborn · 5.83 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.06Avg / pulled copy 5.83Copies / box 0.8% $0.35 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Super Rare Rise of the Floodborn · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 0.8% $0.34 Expected tier contribution

Rise of the Floodborn · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Cinderella - Ballroom Sensation Rise of the Floodborn · #205 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $230.16 $4.80 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $230.16
  2. Rank 02 Alice - Growing Girl Rise of the Floodborn · #213 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $141.12 $2.94 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $141.12
  3. Rank 03 Snow White - Well Wisher Rise of the Floodborn · #206 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $118.12 $2.46 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $118.12
  4. Rank 04 Beast - Relentless Rise of the Floodborn · #210 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $62.41 $1.30 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $62.41
  5. Rank 05 Hercules - Divine Hero Rise of the Floodborn · #215 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $53.18 $1.11 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $53.18
  6. Rank 06 Shere Khan - Menacing Predator Rise of the Floodborn · #212 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $49.53 $1.03 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $49.53
  7. Rank 07 Sisu - Divine Water Dragon Rise of the Floodborn · #214 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $44.35 $0.92 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $44.35
  8. Rank 08 Lady Tremaine - Imperious Queen Rise of the Floodborn · #211 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $41.66 $0.87 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $41.66
  9. Rank 09 Pete - Bad Guy Rise of the Floodborn · #209 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $40.52 $0.84 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $40.52
  10. Rank 10 Madam Mim - Purple Dragon Rise of the Floodborn · #208 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 48.0 boxes 1 : 48.0Box odds 0.0208Copies / box $36.76 $0.77 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $36.76
Advanced statistical breakdown for Rise of the Floodborn (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Rise of the Floodborn · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.406%–1.921% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.92%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Rise of the Floodborn · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $35.06 · High expected value: $62.63 $35.06Low scenario $62.63High scenario ±$13.79 $27.57 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $34.99 · High expected value: $53.51 $34.99Low scenario $53.51High scenario ±$9.26 $18.52 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $40.87 · High expected value: $47.87 $40.87Low scenario $47.87High scenario ±$3.50 $7.00 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Cold Foil Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $41.39 · High expected value: $47.12 $41.39Low scenario $47.12High scenario ±$2.87 $5.73 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $42.25 · High expected value: $45.83 $42.25Low scenario $45.83High scenario ±$1.79 $3.58 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Cold Foil Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $42.82 · High expected value: $45.91 $42.82Low scenario $45.91High scenario ±$1.55 $3.09 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Rise of the Floodborn
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Rise of the Floodborn packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Rise of the Floodborn → · View Rise of the Floodborn card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $101.58–$186.13 Chase expected value: $67.46 · Non-chase: $68.95 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.2% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $87.37 P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54 Expected value to price ratio: 57.3% $136.41 P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
  2. Rank 02 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.40–$161.23 Chase expected value: $53.30 · Non-chase: $77.20 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.1% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $93.50 P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11 Expected value to price ratio: 49.1% $130.51 P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
  3. Rank 03 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $50.77–$133.27 Chase expected value: $67.70 · Non-chase: $21.39 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $26.88 P25 $20.75 · P75 $43.32 Expected value to price ratio: 47.2% $89.10 P10 $17.00 · P90 $174.96
  4. Rank 04 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.32–$173.45 Chase expected value: $62.36 · Non-chase: $29.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.6% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.40 P25 $28.61 · P75 $56.18 Expected value to price ratio: 38.8% $91.98 P10 $22.55 · P90 $119.37
  5. Rank 05 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $33.36–$86.95 Chase expected value: $36.82 · Non-chase: $19.76 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $20.51 P25 $15.92 · P75 $38.95 Expected value to price ratio: 37.3% $56.58 P10 $13.24 · P90 $165.40
  6. Rank 06 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.78–$66.03 Chase expected value: $27.20 · Non-chase: $19.20 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.8% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $19.96 P25 $14.94 · P75 $42.65 Expected value to price ratio: 34.9% $46.40 P10 $12.42 · P90 $116.22
  7. Rank 07 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $162.94–$353.73 Chase expected value: $162.38 · Non-chase: $87.42 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.29 P25 $86.59 · P75 $211.74 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $249.80 P10 $62.86 · P90 $506.94
  8. Rank 08 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $25.86–$47.20 Chase expected value: $15.13 · Non-chase: $20.03 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $21.34 P25 $15.76 · P75 $38.83 Expected value to price ratio: 28.0% $35.16 P10 $12.86 · P90 $87.16
  9. Rank 09 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.61–$40.27 Chase expected value: $14.02 · Non-chase: $17.17 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.8% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $18.55 P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.12 Expected value to price ratio: 26.4% $31.20 P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.47
  10. Rank 10 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.50–$180.48 Chase expected value: $56.08 · Non-chase: $72.90 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.5% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $80.81 P25 $51.79 · P75 $154.73 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $128.99 P10 $36.09 · P90 $267.39
  11. Rank 11 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $32.70–$60.11 Chase expected value: $18.48 · Non-chase: $25.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.0% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $27.97 P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.8% $44.25 P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
  12. Rank 12 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.38–$46.03 Chase expected value: $18.31 · Non-chase: $14.24 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.8% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $15.21 P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42 Expected value to price ratio: 23.1% $32.56 P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
  13. Rank 13 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $19.94–$41.00 Chase expected value: $14.66 · Non-chase: $13.65 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.7% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $13.36 P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.37 Expected value to price ratio: 22.4% $28.31 P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.43
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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