FoilFox
Menu
Get the free appOpen Dashboard

Disney Lorcana · Reign of Jafar · 24 packs per booster box

Reign of Jafar Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box (24 packs) vs. its $151.58 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 24 packs · 428/428 printings priced · USD Browse Reign of Jafar card values
Stitch - Experiment 626 It Means No Worries Into the Unknown

Top chase: It Means No Worries ($308.75) · Reign of Jafar

Reign of JafarSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$56.58Reign of Jafar · 90% credible mean: $33.36–$86.95
Expected value to box price
37.3%Reflective market: $151.58 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 10.5%
Median box (P50)
$20.51P10–P90 spread: $13.24–$165.40 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$36.82 (65.1%)Non-chase floor: $19.76 · P(any chase): 23.6%
Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (37.3% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $20.51; clearing the $151.58 reflective market price (10.5% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($151.58) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $13.24 (unlucky P10) and $165.40 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $13.24–$165.40 Typical / Median (P50): $20.51 Expected value (Mean): $56.58 Box price: $151.58

Top chase cards in Reign of Jafar

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Stitch - Experiment 626 Stitch - Experiment 626 Holofoil · #220 $409.29 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $5.68/box
  2. It Means No Worries It Means No Worries Holofoil · #208 $308.75 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $4.29/box
  3. Into the Unknown Into the Unknown Holofoil · #213 $282.03 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $3.92/box
  4. Rapunzel - High Climber Rapunzel - High Climber Holofoil · #214 $267.31 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $3.71/box
  5. Bambi - Little Prince Bambi - Little Prince Holofoil · #209 $206.05 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.86/box
  6. Jasmine - Steady Strategist Jasmine - Steady Strategist Holofoil · #221 $159.83 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.22/box
  7. Lady - Decisive Dog Lady - Decisive Dog Holofoil · #205 $151.11 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.10/box
  8. Perdita - Determined Mother Perdita - Determined Mother Holofoil · #207 $119.27 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.66/box
  9. Kuzco - Impulsive Llama Kuzco - Impulsive Llama Holofoil · #210 $115.36 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.60/box
  10. Mushu - Your Worst Nightmare Mushu - Your Worst Nightmare Holofoil · #218 $113.29 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.57/box

Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Reign of Jafar · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $147.28Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 65.1% $36.82 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Common Reign of Jafar · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 7.6% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Cold Foil Legendary Reign of Jafar · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $5.25Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 7.0% $3.94 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Legendary Reign of Jafar · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.99Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 6.9% $3.93 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Uncommon Reign of Jafar · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 3.8% $2.16 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Cold Foil Rare Reign of Jafar · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.52Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 3.1% $1.75 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Cold Foil Super Rare Reign of Jafar · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.02Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 2.2% $1.25 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Rare Reign of Jafar · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 1.7% $0.98 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Cold Foil Uncommon Reign of Jafar · 5.83 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.12Avg / pulled copy 5.83Copies / box 1.2% $0.70 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Common Reign of Jafar · 12.61 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 12.61Copies / box 0.7% $0.38 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Super Rare Reign of Jafar · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 0.6% $0.34 Expected tier contribution

Reign of Jafar · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Stitch - Experiment 626 Reign of Jafar · #220 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $409.29 $5.68 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $409.29
  2. Rank 02 It Means No Worries Reign of Jafar · #208 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $308.75 $4.29 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $308.75
  3. Rank 03 Into the Unknown Reign of Jafar · #213 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $282.03 $3.92 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $282.03
  4. Rank 04 Rapunzel - High Climber Reign of Jafar · #214 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $267.31 $3.71 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $267.31
  5. Rank 05 Bambi - Little Prince Reign of Jafar · #209 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $206.05 $2.86 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $206.05
  6. Rank 06 Jasmine - Steady Strategist Reign of Jafar · #221 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $159.83 $2.22 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $159.83
  7. Rank 07 Lady - Decisive Dog Reign of Jafar · #205 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $151.11 $2.10 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $151.11
  8. Rank 08 Perdita - Determined Mother Reign of Jafar · #207 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $119.27 $1.66 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $119.27
  9. Rank 09 Kuzco - Impulsive Llama Reign of Jafar · #210 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $115.36 $1.60 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $115.36
  10. Rank 10 Mushu - Your Worst Nightmare Reign of Jafar · #218 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $113.29 $1.57 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $113.29
Advanced statistical breakdown for Reign of Jafar (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Reign of Jafar · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.406%–1.921% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.92%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Reign of Jafar · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $38.21 · High expected value: $93.32 $38.21Low scenario $93.32High scenario ±$27.56 $55.11 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $38.15 · High expected value: $75.01 $38.15Low scenario $75.01High scenario ±$18.43 $36.86 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $53.84 · High expected value: $59.27 $53.84Low scenario $59.27High scenario ±$2.72 $5.43 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Cold Foil Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $54.53 · High expected value: $58.61 $54.53Low scenario $58.61High scenario ±$2.04 $4.08 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Cold Foil Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $55.19 · High expected value: $58.23 $55.19Low scenario $58.23High scenario ±$1.52 $3.04 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Cold Foil Super Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $55.74 · High expected value: $57.39 $55.74Low scenario $57.39High scenario ±$0.83 $1.65 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Reign of Jafar
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Reign of Jafar Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Reign of Jafar packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Reign of Jafar → · View Reign of Jafar card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $101.58–$186.13 Chase expected value: $67.46 · Non-chase: $68.95 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.2% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $87.37 P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54 Expected value to price ratio: 57.3% $136.41 P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
  2. Rank 02 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.40–$161.23 Chase expected value: $53.30 · Non-chase: $77.20 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.1% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $93.50 P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11 Expected value to price ratio: 49.1% $130.51 P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
  3. Rank 03 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $50.77–$133.27 Chase expected value: $67.70 · Non-chase: $21.39 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $26.88 P25 $20.75 · P75 $43.32 Expected value to price ratio: 47.2% $89.10 P10 $17.00 · P90 $174.96
  4. Rank 04 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.32–$173.45 Chase expected value: $62.36 · Non-chase: $29.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.6% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.40 P25 $28.61 · P75 $56.18 Expected value to price ratio: 38.8% $91.98 P10 $22.55 · P90 $119.37
  5. Rank 05 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $33.36–$86.95 Chase expected value: $36.82 · Non-chase: $19.76 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $20.51 P25 $15.92 · P75 $38.95 Expected value to price ratio: 37.3% $56.58 P10 $13.24 · P90 $165.40
  6. Rank 06 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.78–$66.03 Chase expected value: $27.20 · Non-chase: $19.20 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.8% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $19.96 P25 $14.94 · P75 $42.65 Expected value to price ratio: 34.9% $46.40 P10 $12.42 · P90 $116.22
  7. Rank 07 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $162.94–$353.73 Chase expected value: $162.38 · Non-chase: $87.42 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.29 P25 $86.59 · P75 $211.74 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $249.80 P10 $62.86 · P90 $506.94
  8. Rank 08 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $25.86–$47.20 Chase expected value: $15.13 · Non-chase: $20.03 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $21.34 P25 $15.76 · P75 $38.83 Expected value to price ratio: 28.0% $35.16 P10 $12.86 · P90 $87.16
  9. Rank 09 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.61–$40.27 Chase expected value: $14.02 · Non-chase: $17.17 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.8% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $18.55 P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.12 Expected value to price ratio: 26.4% $31.20 P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.47
  10. Rank 10 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.50–$180.48 Chase expected value: $56.08 · Non-chase: $72.90 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.5% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $80.81 P25 $51.79 · P75 $154.73 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $128.99 P10 $36.09 · P90 $267.39
  11. Rank 11 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $32.70–$60.11 Chase expected value: $18.48 · Non-chase: $25.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.0% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $27.97 P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.8% $44.25 P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
  12. Rank 12 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.38–$46.03 Chase expected value: $18.31 · Non-chase: $14.24 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.8% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $15.21 P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42 Expected value to price ratio: 23.1% $32.56 P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
  13. Rank 13 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $19.94–$41.00 Chase expected value: $14.66 · Non-chase: $13.65 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.7% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $13.36 P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.37 Expected value to price ratio: 22.4% $28.31 P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.43
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

Your FoilFox account

Sign in

Sign in to open shop inventory or your collection. Guides stay open without an account.

By continuing, you agree to the Terms and acknowledge the Privacy Policy. If you cannot legally accept the Terms where you live, a parent or guardian must own and manage the account. FoilFox accounts are not available to children under 13. Google shares your approved name, email address, and profile photo. FoilFox never sees your Google password or accesses Gmail or Drive.