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Disney Lorcana · Azurite Sea · 24 packs per booster box

Azurite Sea Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box (24 packs) vs. its $118.13 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 24 packs · 426/426 printings priced · USD Browse Azurite Sea card values
Tigger - In the Crow's Nest Baymax - Personal Healthcare Companion You Came Back

Top chase: Baymax - Personal Healthcare Companion ($98.87) · Azurite Sea

Azurite SeaSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$31.20Azurite Sea · 90% credible mean: $23.61–$40.27
Expected value to box price
26.4%Reflective market: $118.13 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 2.8%
Median box (P50)
$18.55P10–P90 spread: $11.36–$72.47 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$14.02 (44.9%)Non-chase floor: $17.17 · P(any chase): 23.6%
Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (26.4% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $18.55; clearing the $118.13 reflective market price (2.8% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($118.13) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $11.36 (unlucky P10) and $72.47 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $11.36–$72.47 Typical / Median (P50): $18.55 Expected value (Mean): $31.20 Box price: $118.13

Top chase cards in Azurite Sea

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Tigger - In the Crow's Nest Tigger - In the Crow's Nest Holofoil · #215 $136.48 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.90/box
  2. Baymax - Personal Healthcare Companion Baymax - Personal Healthcare Companion Holofoil · #218 $98.87 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.37/box
  3. You Came Back You Came Back Holofoil · #213 $89.80 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.25/box
  4. Tiana - Restaurant Owner Tiana - Restaurant Owner Holofoil · #206 $75.91 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.05/box
  5. We Could Be Immortals We Could Be Immortals Holofoil · #219 $71.51 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.99/box
  6. Chip 'n' Dale - Recovery Rangers Chip 'n' Dale - Recovery Rangers Holofoil · #205 $64.58 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.90/box
  7. Daisy Duck - Pirate Captain Daisy Duck - Pirate Captain Holofoil · #211 $53.56 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.74/box
  8. Rafiki - Ethereal Guide Rafiki - Ethereal Guide Holofoil · #208 $53.07 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.74/box
  9. The Islands I Pulled from the Sea The Islands I Pulled from the Sea Holofoil · #216 $46.86 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.65/box
  10. Wreck-It Ralph - Ham Hands Wreck-It Ralph - Ham Hands Holofoil · #220 $45.45 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $0.63/box

Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Azurite Sea · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $56.08Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 44.9% $14.02 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Common Azurite Sea · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 13.8% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Legendary Azurite Sea · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.03Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 13.2% $4.11 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Cold Foil Legendary Azurite Sea · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $3.88Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 9.3% $2.91 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Uncommon Azurite Sea · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 6.9% $2.16 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Rare Azurite Sea · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 3.1% $0.98 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Cold Foil Rare Azurite Sea · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.25Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 2.7% $0.84 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Cold Foil Common Azurite Sea · 12.61 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.06Avg / pulled copy 12.61Copies / box 2.3% $0.72 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Cold Foil Super Rare Azurite Sea · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.37Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 1.4% $0.45 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Uncommon Azurite Sea · 5.83 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.06Avg / pulled copy 5.83Copies / box 1.1% $0.35 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Super Rare Azurite Sea · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 1.1% $0.34 Expected tier contribution

Azurite Sea · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Tigger - In the Crow's Nest Azurite Sea · #215 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $136.48 $1.90 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $136.48
  2. Rank 02 Baymax - Personal Healthcare Companion Azurite Sea · #218 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $98.87 $1.37 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $98.87
  3. Rank 03 You Came Back Azurite Sea · #213 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $89.80 $1.25 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $89.80
  4. Rank 04 Tiana - Restaurant Owner Azurite Sea · #206 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $75.91 $1.05 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $75.91
  5. Rank 05 We Could Be Immortals Azurite Sea · #219 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $71.51 $0.99 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $71.51
  6. Rank 06 Chip 'n' Dale - Recovery Rangers Azurite Sea · #205 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $64.58 $0.90 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $64.58
  7. Rank 07 Daisy Duck - Pirate Captain Azurite Sea · #211 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $53.56 $0.74 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $53.56
  8. Rank 08 Rafiki - Ethereal Guide Azurite Sea · #208 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $53.07 $0.74 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $53.07
  9. Rank 09 The Islands I Pulled from the Sea Azurite Sea · #216 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $46.86 $0.65 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $46.86
  10. Rank 10 Wreck-It Ralph - Ham Hands Azurite Sea · #220 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $45.45 $0.63 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $45.45
Advanced statistical breakdown for Azurite Sea (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Azurite Sea · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.406%–1.921% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.92%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Azurite Sea · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $24.21 · High expected value: $45.17 $24.21Low scenario $45.17High scenario ±$10.48 $20.96 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $24.17 · High expected value: $38.23 $24.17Low scenario $38.23High scenario ±$7.03 $14.06 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $28.83 · High expected value: $33.91 $28.83Low scenario $33.91High scenario ±$2.54 $5.08 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Cold Foil Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $29.60 · High expected value: $32.71 $29.60Low scenario $32.71High scenario ±$1.56 $3.11 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Cold Foil Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $30.69 · High expected value: $32.15 $30.69Low scenario $32.15High scenario ±$0.73 $1.46 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Cold Foil Super Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $30.89 · High expected value: $31.71 $30.89Low scenario $31.71High scenario ±$0.41 $0.82 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Azurite Sea
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Azurite Sea Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Azurite Sea packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Azurite Sea → · View Azurite Sea card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $101.58–$186.13 Chase expected value: $67.46 · Non-chase: $68.95 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.2% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $87.37 P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54 Expected value to price ratio: 57.3% $136.41 P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
  2. Rank 02 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.40–$161.23 Chase expected value: $53.30 · Non-chase: $77.20 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.1% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $93.50 P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11 Expected value to price ratio: 49.1% $130.51 P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
  3. Rank 03 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $50.77–$133.27 Chase expected value: $67.70 · Non-chase: $21.39 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $26.88 P25 $20.75 · P75 $43.32 Expected value to price ratio: 47.2% $89.10 P10 $17.00 · P90 $174.96
  4. Rank 04 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.32–$173.45 Chase expected value: $62.36 · Non-chase: $29.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.6% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.40 P25 $28.61 · P75 $56.18 Expected value to price ratio: 38.8% $91.98 P10 $22.55 · P90 $119.37
  5. Rank 05 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $33.36–$86.95 Chase expected value: $36.82 · Non-chase: $19.76 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $20.51 P25 $15.92 · P75 $38.95 Expected value to price ratio: 37.3% $56.58 P10 $13.24 · P90 $165.40
  6. Rank 06 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.78–$66.03 Chase expected value: $27.20 · Non-chase: $19.20 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.8% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $19.96 P25 $14.94 · P75 $42.65 Expected value to price ratio: 34.9% $46.40 P10 $12.42 · P90 $116.22
  7. Rank 07 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $162.94–$353.73 Chase expected value: $162.38 · Non-chase: $87.42 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.29 P25 $86.59 · P75 $211.74 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $249.80 P10 $62.86 · P90 $506.94
  8. Rank 08 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $25.86–$47.20 Chase expected value: $15.13 · Non-chase: $20.03 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $21.34 P25 $15.76 · P75 $38.83 Expected value to price ratio: 28.0% $35.16 P10 $12.86 · P90 $87.16
  9. Rank 09 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.61–$40.27 Chase expected value: $14.02 · Non-chase: $17.17 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.8% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $18.55 P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.12 Expected value to price ratio: 26.4% $31.20 P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.47
  10. Rank 10 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.50–$180.48 Chase expected value: $56.08 · Non-chase: $72.90 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.5% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $80.81 P25 $51.79 · P75 $154.73 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $128.99 P10 $36.09 · P90 $267.39
  11. Rank 11 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $32.70–$60.11 Chase expected value: $18.48 · Non-chase: $25.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.0% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $27.97 P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.8% $44.25 P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
  12. Rank 12 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.38–$46.03 Chase expected value: $18.31 · Non-chase: $14.24 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.8% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $15.21 P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42 Expected value to price ratio: 23.1% $32.56 P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
  13. Rank 13 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $19.94–$41.00 Chase expected value: $14.66 · Non-chase: $13.65 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.7% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $13.36 P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.37 Expected value to price ratio: 22.4% $28.31 P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.43
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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