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Disney Lorcana · Archazia's Island · 24 packs per booster box

Archazia's Island Booster Box expected value (EV)

Simulated expected value (EV), median booster box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, and Bayesian chase pull odds for Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box (24 packs) vs. its $132.79 reflective market price.

Planning estimate · 24 packs · 428/428 printings priced · USD Browse Archazia's Island card values
Mickey Mouse - Inspirational Warrior All Is Found Aurora - Waking Beauty

Top chase: All Is Found ($242.06) · Archazia's Island

Archazia's IslandSeller net personaClear all
Expected box value (EV)
$46.40Archazia's Island · 90% credible mean: $29.78–$66.03
Expected value to box price
34.9%Reflective market: $132.79 (2026-09-29) · P(box ≥ cost): 8.8%
Median box (P50)
$19.96P10–P90 spread: $12.42–$116.22 (5,000 trials)
Chase share of expected value
$27.20 (58.6%)Non-chase floor: $19.20 · P(any chase): 23.6%
Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · Simulated box outcome distribution vs. reflective market price
Chase-driven box (34.9% of box price)Typical (median) box returns $19.96; clearing the $132.79 reflective market price (8.8% of boxes) depends on hitting a top chase card.
Buy box on TCGplayer ($132.79) ↗ Shop packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ FoilFox set card values → Browse set checklist →
80% of simulated boxes land between $12.42 (unlucky P10) and $116.22 (lucky P90) 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 printings priced
P10–P90 spread: $12.42–$116.22 Typical / Median (P50): $19.96 Expected value (Mean): $46.40 Box price: $132.79

Top chase cards in Archazia's Island

Click any card for price history & versions · Seller net prices
  1. Mickey Mouse - Inspirational Warrior Mickey Mouse - Inspirational Warrior Holofoil · #221 $329.34 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $4.57/box
  2. All Is Found All Is Found Holofoil · #220 $242.06 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $3.36/box
  3. Aurora - Waking Beauty Aurora - Waking Beauty Holofoil · #205 $211.08 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.93/box
  4. Belle - Mechanic Extraordinaire Belle - Mechanic Extraordinaire Holofoil · #217 $153.61 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $2.13/box
  5. Donald Duck - Flustered Sorcerer Donald Duck - Flustered Sorcerer Holofoil · #209 $132.84 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.85/box
  6. Tamatoa - Happy as a Clam Tamatoa - Happy as a Clam Holofoil · #219 $115.51 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.60/box
  7. Mad Hatter - Unruly Eccentric Mad Hatter - Unruly Eccentric Holofoil · #213 $96.36 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.34/box
  8. Tramp - Enterprising Dog Tramp - Enterprising Dog Holofoil · #212 $92.73 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.29/box
  9. Jafar - Newly Crowned Jafar - Newly Crowned Holofoil · #210 $87.48 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.22/box
  10. Bolt - Superdog Bolt - Superdog Holofoil · #207 $79.89 ~1 in 72.0 boxes · EV $1.11/box

Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · Breakdown by rarity & finish tier

  1. Tier 01 Enchanted Archazia's Island · 0.25 expected copies per booster box Chase tier $108.80Avg / pulled copy 0.25Copies / box 58.6% $27.20 Expected tier contribution
  2. Tier 02 Common Archazia's Island · 144.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 144.00Copies / box 9.3% $4.32 Expected tier contribution
  3. Tier 03 Cold Foil Legendary Archazia's Island · 0.75 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $5.69Avg / pulled copy 0.75Copies / box 9.2% $4.27 Expected tier contribution
  4. Tier 04 Legendary Archazia's Island · 3.98 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.95Avg / pulled copy 3.98Copies / box 8.1% $3.78 Expected tier contribution
  5. Tier 05 Uncommon Archazia's Island · 72.00 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 72.00Copies / box 4.7% $2.16 Expected tier contribution
  6. Tier 06 Cold Foil Super Rare Archazia's Island · 1.23 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $1.08Avg / pulled copy 1.23Copies / box 2.8% $1.32 Expected tier contribution
  7. Tier 07 Rare Archazia's Island · 32.64 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 32.64Copies / box 2.1% $0.98 Expected tier contribution
  8. Tier 08 Cold Foil Rare Archazia's Island · 3.34 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.27Avg / pulled copy 3.34Copies / box 2.0% $0.91 Expected tier contribution
  9. Tier 09 Cold Foil Uncommon Archazia's Island · 5.83 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.11Avg / pulled copy 5.83Copies / box 1.4% $0.63 Expected tier contribution
  10. Tier 10 Cold Foil Common Archazia's Island · 12.61 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.04Avg / pulled copy 12.61Copies / box 1.1% $0.50 Expected tier contribution
  11. Tier 11 Super Rare Archazia's Island · 11.39 expected copies per booster box Non-chase tier $0.03Avg / pulled copy 11.39Copies / box 0.7% $0.34 Expected tier contribution

Archazia's Island · Top chase & value cards in this box

  1. Rank 01 Mickey Mouse - Inspirational Warrior Archazia's Island · #221 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $329.34 $4.57 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $329.34
  2. Rank 02 All Is Found Archazia's Island · #220 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $242.06 $3.36 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $242.06
  3. Rank 03 Aurora - Waking Beauty Archazia's Island · #205 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $211.08 $2.93 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $211.08
  4. Rank 04 Belle - Mechanic Extraordinaire Archazia's Island · #217 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $153.61 $2.13 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $153.61
  5. Rank 05 Donald Duck - Flustered Sorcerer Archazia's Island · #209 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $132.84 $1.85 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $132.84
  6. Rank 06 Tamatoa - Happy as a Clam Archazia's Island · #219 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $115.51 $1.60 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $115.51
  7. Rank 07 Mad Hatter - Unruly Eccentric Archazia's Island · #213 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $96.36 $1.34 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $96.36
  8. Rank 08 Tramp - Enterprising Dog Archazia's Island · #212 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $92.73 $1.29 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $92.73
  9. Rank 09 Jafar - Newly Crowned Archazia's Island · #210 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $87.48 $1.22 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $87.48
  10. Rank 10 Bolt - Superdog Archazia's Island · #207 Holofoil Enchanted · ~1 in 72.0 boxes 1 : 72.0Box odds 0.0139Copies / box $79.89 $1.11 Expected value contribution per box Seller net single-card value: $79.89
Advanced statistical breakdown for Archazia's Island (Bayesian pull-rate posteriors, tornado sensitivity & sources)

Archazia's Island · Bayesian chase pull-rate posteriors

  1. 01 Enchanted Pack slot: Foil · ~1 in 96.0 packs 90% Beta posterior: 0.406%–1.921% per pack 0.2500 expected copies per booster box 0.41%–1.92%90% credible / pack 1 : 96.0Packs 1.04% 0.25 / box Posterior mean per booster box

Archazia's Island · Tornado sensitivity drivers

  1. 01 Pull rate: Enchanted Slot: Foil · 0.5× to 2× prior rate sensitivity Pull rate prior Low expected value: $32.84 · High expected value: $73.52 $32.84Low scenario $73.52High scenario ±$20.34 $40.68 swing Expected value range for this factor
  2. 02 Tier price band: Enchanted Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $32.78 · High expected value: $60.02 $32.78Low scenario $60.02High scenario ±$13.62 $27.24 swing Expected value range for this factor
  3. 03 Tier price band: Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $43.61 · High expected value: $49.07 $43.61Low scenario $49.07High scenario ±$2.73 $5.46 swing Expected value range for this factor
  4. 04 Tier price band: Cold Foil Legendary Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $44.12 · High expected value: $48.59 $44.12Low scenario $48.59High scenario ±$2.24 $4.47 swing Expected value range for this factor
  5. 05 Tier price band: Cold Foil Super Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $45.46 · High expected value: $47.41 $45.46Low scenario $47.41High scenario ±$0.98 $1.95 swing Expected value range for this factor
  6. 06 Tier price band: Cold Foil Rare Lower to upper realizable price band across all cards in tier Price band Low expected value: $45.77 · High expected value: $47.52 $45.77Low scenario $47.52High scenario ±$0.88 $1.75 swing Expected value range for this factor
Evidence disclosures & limitations for Archazia's Island
  • No completed-sale observations: prices are marketplace estimates and listings, so every price band is at its widest.
  • Ravensburger publishes no official rarity odds; slot weights use cross-set empirical Lorcana opening benchmarks with conservative proxy priors.
  • Every card in a rarity and finish pool is equally likely; draws are treated as independent.
Pack grammar & pull-rate sources

Buy Archazia's Island Booster Box on TCGplayer ↗ · Shop Archazia's Island packs & singles on TCGplayer ↗ · Browse every card in Archazia's Island → · View Archazia's Island card values →

Ranked sets & booster boxes by expected value to box price (Seller net)

# Art Set Box price Median (P50) Value / Price Expected value
  1. Rank 01 Whispers in the Well Disney Lorcana: Whispers in the Well Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $101.58–$186.13 Chase expected value: $67.46 · Non-chase: $68.95 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.2% $238.12 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $87.37 P25 $59.91 · P75 $134.54 Expected value to price ratio: 57.3% $136.41 P10 $42.63 · P90 $241.36
  2. Rank 02 Winterspell Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $108.40–$161.23 Chase expected value: $53.30 · Non-chase: $77.20 P(any chase): 82.8% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.1% $265.82 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $93.50 P25 $71.18 · P75 $127.11 Expected value to price ratio: 49.1% $130.51 P10 $55.62 · P90 $223.88
  3. Rank 03 Attack of the Vine! Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 452/452 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $50.77–$133.27 Chase expected value: $67.70 · Non-chase: $21.39 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.2% $188.70 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $26.88 P25 $20.75 · P75 $43.32 Expected value to price ratio: 47.2% $89.10 P10 $17.00 · P90 $174.96
  4. Rank 04 Wilds Unknown Disney Lorcana: Wilds Unknown Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 446/446 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $49.32–$173.45 Chase expected value: $62.36 · Non-chase: $29.62 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.6% $237.32 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $36.40 P25 $28.61 · P75 $56.18 Expected value to price ratio: 38.8% $91.98 P10 $22.55 · P90 $119.37
  5. Rank 05 Reign of Jafar Disney Lorcana: Reign of Jafar Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $33.36–$86.95 Chase expected value: $36.82 · Non-chase: $19.76 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 10.5% $151.58 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $20.51 P25 $15.92 · P75 $38.95 Expected value to price ratio: 37.3% $56.58 P10 $13.24 · P90 $165.40
  6. Rank 06 Archazia's Island Disney Lorcana: Archazia's Island Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 428/428 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $29.78–$66.03 Chase expected value: $27.20 · Non-chase: $19.20 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 8.8% $132.79 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $19.96 P25 $14.94 · P75 $42.65 Expected value to price ratio: 34.9% $46.40 P10 $12.42 · P90 $116.22
  7. Rank 07 Fabled Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 448/448 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $162.94–$353.73 Chase expected value: $162.38 · Non-chase: $87.42 P(any chase): 84.1% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.0% $823.83 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $123.29 P25 $86.59 · P75 $211.74 Expected value to price ratio: 30.3% $249.80 P10 $62.86 · P90 $506.94
  8. Rank 08 Ursula's Return Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 429/429 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $25.86–$47.20 Chase expected value: $15.13 · Non-chase: $20.03 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 4.1% $125.46 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $21.34 P25 $15.76 · P75 $38.83 Expected value to price ratio: 28.0% $35.16 P10 $12.86 · P90 $87.16
  9. Rank 09 Azurite Sea Disney Lorcana: Azurite Sea Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.61–$40.27 Chase expected value: $14.02 · Non-chase: $17.17 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.8% $118.13 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $18.55 P25 $13.78 · P75 $31.12 Expected value to price ratio: 26.4% $31.20 P10 $11.36 · P90 $72.47
  10. Rank 10 The First Chapter Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $94.50–$180.48 Chase expected value: $56.08 · Non-chase: $72.90 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.5% $490.22 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $80.81 P25 $51.79 · P75 $154.73 Expected value to price ratio: 26.3% $128.99 P10 $36.09 · P90 $267.39
  11. Rank 11 Rise of the Floodborn Disney Lorcana: Rise of the Floodborn Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 420/420 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $32.70–$60.11 Chase expected value: $18.48 · Non-chase: $25.77 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.0% $171.63 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $27.97 P25 $20.43 · P75 $48.78 Expected value to price ratio: 25.8% $44.25 P10 $16.00 · P90 $84.88
  12. Rank 12 Shimmering Skies Disney Lorcana: Shimmering Skies Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 426/426 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $23.38–$46.03 Chase expected value: $18.31 · Non-chase: $14.24 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 3.8% $141.11 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $15.21 P25 $12.02 · P75 $24.42 Expected value to price ratio: 23.1% $32.56 P10 $10.29 · P90 $80.01
  13. Rank 13 Into the Inklands Disney Lorcana: Into the Inklands Booster Box · 24 packs per booster box · 434/434 variants priced 90% credible expected value: $19.94–$41.00 Chase expected value: $14.66 · Non-chase: $13.65 P(any chase): 23.6% · P(box ≥ cost): 2.7% $126.28 TCGplayer · 2026-09-29 $13.36 P25 $11.02 · P75 $32.37 Expected value to price ratio: 22.4% $28.31 P10 $9.45 · P90 $74.43
How FoilFox calculates booster box expected value (EV)

Why mean expected value alone misleads—and how FoilFox models a box.

A single expected value number mixes everyday pulls with 1-in-2,500-pack lottery cards. FoilFox models each booster pack as an explicit slot grammar with mutually exclusive branches, updates pull-rate priors with empirical opening counts using a Beta-Binomial posterior, and runs Monte Carlo box trials alongside parameter-uncertainty scenarios.

Every box shows both its exact arithmetic mean expected value and its median box outcome (P50), 10th–90th percentile spread, chase vs. non-chase expected value split, and probability of clearing the reflective market price.

Collector vs. Seller valuation personas

Collector value prices every pulled card at its realizable FoilFox market quote or labeled estimate. Seller net subtracts 13.25% marketplace fees and $0.15 per-card shipping on cards at or above $1.00, and values sub-dollar bulk at $0.03 per card.

All figures are planning estimates, not a guarantee, appraisal, or offer. Unpriced catalog variants count as $0 rather than borrowing another printing’s price, and every price band widens when completed-sale observations are scarce.

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